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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0802

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 06:48:11 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 160646
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160646=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-160845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0802
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0146 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...central Arkansas northeastward into western
    Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 160646Z - 160845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning across
    portions of central/northern Arkansas. The overall environment will
    support large hail and gusty winds, although a tornadoes cannot be
    ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...A slowly advancing cold front will continue to move
    east/southeast across the region this morning. Scattered convective
    showers continue to percolate across Arkansas along this boundary.
    The airmass along and ahead of the front is highly sheared and quite
    unstable, with effective layer shear in excess of 60 knots and
    MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Despite this favorable environment,
    the convective showers have failed to turn the corner into robust
    deep convection.=20

    That said, 00Z HREF members and recent HRRR runs are insistent that
    deep convection will eventually develop across portions of Arkansas
    this morning. The most likely area would be across west-central into north-central Arkansas where latest mesoanalysis data suggests a
    weakening of the convective inhibition. Should this occur, the
    large-scale environment will be conducive for severe thunderstorms,
    with the primary hazard being large hail. However, given the very
    moist low-level environment, degree of instability, and
    effective-layer shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out.=20

    The area will continue to be monitored for signs that deep
    convection is imminent at which point a watch will be needed.

    ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4XP2WdYM8HsBZy9MQyJmg728Z8Cw2HnK1VqrpcE7yZ_rwBYX74ukRrHQmi6Rzc13Ymi5_1XFi= yEl29VBLzhIz0tRcBw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 35219390 36899104 37618940 38138780 37618671 36138741
    34119170 34069363 35219390=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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