ACUS11 KWNS 160837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160836 COR
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-161000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...and
western New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 160836Z - 161000Z
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC TEXT
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Long-lived thunderstorms continue to slowly weaken as they
move east. Brief gusty winds and small hail will be possible in the
short term. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Morning radar imagery shows a long-lived MCS continuing
to move east across Lake Erie. The environment ahead of the MCS
across the highlighted region rapidly becomes less supportive of
severe thunderstorms as compared to the environment last evening
across Michigan. This less favorable environment should support a
continued downward trend in convective intensity as MUCAPE and
Effective Layer Shear both drop off with eastward extend across the
highlighted area. Satellite imagery bears this out as cloud tops
warm across much of the MCS.=20
The exception to this cloud top warming is the far southern
cell/storm moving into Eerie County, OH. Brief gusty winds and small
hail may be possible for the next hour or so with this cell as it
continues to move east.
Additional thunderstorms may develop later this morning along/ahead
of the MCS, but the overall environment should remain unsupportive
of an organized severe threat.
Given the unfavorable environment for an organized severe threat, a
watch is not anticipated across the area.
..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/16/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9NwwZUH6cxndK9Fbi5E26jZAao6eECVHe6ccj_vK7Kvoz3HxE4SwQyy2t0riwBMgwTYKgxPB_= 7CRbsUiuCozR6S0KIA$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41388281 43728040 43667899 42537752 40697875 41388281=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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