1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0805

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 10:34:11 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161032=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0805
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...north-central Arkansas into central Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

    Valid 161032Z - 161130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue this morning across the region. The
    overall environment will support large hail and isolated severe wind
    with the strongest thunderstorms. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
    continues.

    DISCUSSION...Several areas of thunderstorms developed this morning
    across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259, and much of this activity
    continues. These thunderstorms are occurring along a slow moving
    cold front draped across Arkansas into and through Kentucky, aided
    by warm-air advection associated with the right entrance region of a
    midlevel jet/jet streak. Given most-unstable CAPE between 2000-4000
    J/kg and effective bulk shear still above 60 knots, a large hail and
    damaging wind threat will persist through the morning. Thus, the
    severe threat will continue across Watch 259.

    After the last of the existing thunderstorms (currently over
    west-central Arkansas) move east out of the watch area, additional thunderstorms are expected later today. All severe hazards will be
    possible with these additional thunderstorms.

    ..Marsh.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-8ot-5b1xr2lpxQo5fFdsKmxvCCrrR2NpUToZlJKqQquJphzEhT_GUf2SK_YCc2AHmcEIuEO1= QdibiWXqr_qHed6eoM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36649267 38118628 36348628 34909268 36649267=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)