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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0806

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 11:35:52 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161135=20 WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0806
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0635 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...northeast AR/southeast MO into parts of KY/TN...WV
    and western VA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

    Valid 161135Z - 161330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large to very large
    hail will persist across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. This
    activity may maintain severity downstream into eastern Kentucky and
    portions of West Virginia and western Virginia. A new watch may be
    needed to replace WW 259 and to expand downstream.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorm clusters are ongoing this
    morning from northeast AR into central KY. This activity is
    occurring in a warm advection regime and on the fringes of an 850 mb southwesterly low-level jet. While some inhibition is present in the
    low-levels given the nocturnally cooled boundary layer, MUCAPE from
    1000-2000 J/kg is in place amid a moist airmass. Elongated/straight
    supercell profiles and cool temperatures aloft also are present.
    Thus, a large hail threat will accompany any more discrete
    convection.=20

    Recent radar trends suggest clustering may be underway near the MO
    Bootheel and into western KY. If this continues, convection could
    develop into a small MCS and move across KY toward WV/VA, posing a
    risk for strong/severe wind gusts as well as the downstream airmass destabilizes and inhibition erodes later this morning as diurnal
    heating ensues.=20

    An isolated cell also is approaching the edge of WW 259 across
    central KY and a downstream watch and/or larger watch replacement
    may be needed soon.

    ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_-s5YAxupgKh9TBHe6E9LXjlmU93PVvbbVpuc4aT7oypnJUjjztyb5f0gkhmHZNA1yQKiY6z= jCv0m1awNheU0y7WZQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH... MEG...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36099212 37318926 38118690 38378469 38378276 38018181
    37338153 36908156 36618216 36488344 36098828 35479074
    35229206 35259222 35619238 36099212=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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