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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0807

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 12:40:52 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161240=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0807
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0740 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...northeast AR into central KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

    Valid 161240Z - 161445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cluster may continue to pose a risk for hail
    and sporadic strong gusts this morning. Local watch extension may be
    needed for portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259.

    DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue from northeast
    AR into central KY this morning. While previously a new watch was
    considered, given some weakening in the clusters across central KY,
    local watch extensions may be more appropriate as uncertainty in
    downstream evolution has increased. Nevertheless, a favorable
    environment will persist, supporting a continued large hail risk in
    the short term. If further upscale growth occurs with ongoing
    clusters, a risk for damaging gust potential could increase later
    this morning or toward midday downstream from WW 259. Local watch
    extensions for 1-2 hours may be need if current trends persist for
    another 30-60 minutes.

    ..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6pBQy9DNr5eAlwaddXzoUjBhUkwIdtIPmidJypdCO4I6daBlE08SBBxQwTmcnLC2RJwEVQX53= 3Y1qPTLdhP2yZPFMzw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35859123 36958951 37858730 38108569 38108488 37628479
    37108553 36058880 35559013 35419106 35469128 35859123=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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