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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0808

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 13:47:22 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161347
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161346=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-161545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0808
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0846 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...the Lower Mid-Atlantic States

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 161346Z - 161545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A few supercells could develop before midday across parts
    of the Lower Mid-Atlantic region. Large hail and damaging winds
    should be the primary hazards into early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...An arcing band of convective development is underway
    south of a morning MCS across over central/eastern PA. This arc
    extends southward through central MD towards the DC metro vicinity.
    12Z WAL to PIT soundings sampled a favorable environment for
    supercells with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, largely driven by
    speed change with height amid unidirectional west-northwesterlies.
    This was coupled with moderate mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7
    C/km. 12Z HRRR and 00Z HREF guidance have a signal for longer-track
    2-5 km UH, with potential for a few supercells. Given the
    orientation of the convective development, this seems probable
    across parts of eastern MD, DE, and far southern NJ. Pronounced
    surface heating in this area, south of persistent cloudiness farther
    north, will aid in further destabilization and increase the risk for
    both large hail and damaging winds by midday.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xhacZMHlTqqISstPFVIiTJhGHNTKQxGUvU-dTTCB-WBsq6Giz6_NIKyrQbIST9AaEUgj5MmQ= 77eYhxkd6sAJq7w6wI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 40727641 40517541 39887448 39177448 38267486 38037544
    38087591 38427700 38917704 39777645 40277652 40727641=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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