ACUS11 KWNS 161427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161426=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-161630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...the Cumberland Plateau and southern Appalachians

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 161426Z - 161630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat, primarily in the form of large hail and
eventually damaging winds, is expected to increase across the
Cumberland Plateau and a part of the southern Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...An arcing band of thunderstorms has developed into
eastern KY, downstream of a broad MCS over central/western KY into
northwest TN. Despite an ample cirrus canopy to the east, moderate
insolation is underway. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, as
sampled in regional 12Z soundings, the plume of large buoyancy over
the TN Valley will extend northeastward towards the southern
Appalachians. Fast, nearly unidirectional westerly deep-layer shear
should favor at least a few supercells ahead of the MCS moving east.
A mix of large hail, which could be significant, along with damaging
winds seems likely.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!85pd1urqP_zqRAyff9XInHDkFHbDnyshXp2T7F5XGO4AQhC2hOnc14sEjLiEV0fen89iXYt_V= f0_wWqG_J34c2F1Fo0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON 38178385 38138243 37918045 37618009 37297992 36578015
36018077 36268280 36528419 36778477 38178385=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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