ACUS11 KWNS 161611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161611=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-161815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...south NJ and DE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

Valid 161611Z - 161815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and severe hail will remain possible into mid-afternoon across south New Jersey into Delaware.

DISCUSSION...Deep convective cores within a morning MCS have
contracted in areal extent, largely following along the CAPE
gradient in southeast PA/south NJ. A separate, discrete cell with
echo tops over 50k feet has moved into far southern NJ. Although
MRMS MESH has suggested only marginally severe hail thus far, this
supercell and perhaps another one flanking to its south will have
the best potential to produce large hail into mid-afternoon.
Otherwise, strong gusts producing sporadic damaging winds will be
possible with the shrinking cluster as it likely continues across
the rest of south NJ.

..Grams.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-MorfJIHv1yvepUEIcmzGQ520QOirO-HsmSr5R4-CAPdydDremL1P-TBAGCBAqglGooUG38Dp= t6R3V30xNqzcDz-DRQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...

LAT...LON 40417505 40007455 39647434 39217449 38947472 38807497
38797526 38857559 39137590 39577577 39937543 40417505=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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