ACUS11 KWNS 161641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161641=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-161915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...northern Arkansas...much of Missouri...western
Illinois...far eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 161641Z - 161915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to rapidly develop over parts of central
to southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas, with developing
damaging hail and tornado threat.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and satellite imagery show the warm
front continues to rapidly move north across MO, with extreme
instability developing. Incipient storms are noted on radar just
ahead of the cold front over southwest MO and northwest AR, and
these will likely become supercells with time. Additional storms are
likely through the afternoon overspreading the rest of MO, northern
AR and western IL. Very large and damaging hail appears likely, with
a few tornadoes as well.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!--K5IBpADXMfXuYWkWgaV67KcplYJ9wgtfjllRQkcgbbO93H2rpTGaK08EJaqnXZ0P7qiC7iX= bdu5T4i8197z0zam3M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 35509201 34939426 35239466 35869437 36939383 39089268
39479224 39579129 39449033 38938984 38438959 37298959
36558964 36089003 35509201=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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