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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0815

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 17:42:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161741
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161741=20
    MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0815
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1241 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161741Z - 162015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and damaging winds should develop by
    late afternoon across parts of the central Appalachians and
    Mid-Atlantic States.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple convective regimes are apparent through the
    rest of the afternoon within relatively nebulous large-scale ascent.
    This may yield a less focused severe threat, but should support
    isolated severe hail and damaging winds by late afternoon. One
    regime may be emanating ahead of a subtle MCV remnant that appears
    to be along the southeast OH/western WV border area. Despite a
    pronounced cirrus canopy downstream and low-level westerlies, deep
    convection may be sustained ahead of the MCV across northern WV. A
    few cells have also formed along remnant outflow in
    southwest-central PA, and may eventually develop southeast of this
    into parts of MD. With 35-45 kt effective bulk shear, largely driven
    by increasing speed with height above the low-levels, and 1500-2000
    J/kg of MLCAPE amid moderate mid-level lapse rates, a mix of both
    severe hail and wind will be possible.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!48Jyi_IpY-S-nvDEmrmKYel9RV50BD-2-TbuZEoEdbqhYtQwk5E_mNlyvTRCXZAAzB3kXOuzK= aUJj2qGsBkxtVASIks$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39118084 39888069 40687953 40907859 40657768 40067725
    39697661 39547612 39067635 38627681 38407967 39118084=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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