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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0816

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 18:36:24 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161836
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161835=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-162100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0816
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...central/southern VA and far northern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161835Z - 162100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms may spread east of WW 261 across
    parts of southern to central Virginia into northern North Carolina.
    Uncertainty exists with overall intensity and coverage, but at least
    an isolated severe threat seems probable.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells within WW 261 have consolidated into
    a pair of clusters, one crossing the WV/VA border and a more
    prominent one moving from KY into far southwest VA. How this
    activity evolves east of WW 261 is rather uncertain. Recent HRRR
    runs are insistent on this activity weakening with mesoscale-ascent
    tending to focus north ahead of a remnant MCV over northern WV. In
    addition, SFCOA highlights appreciable MLCIN still lingering in
    parts of the Piedmont, centered on the VA/NC border area. Still,
    strong deep-layer speed shear, coupled with a rear-inflow jet
    apparent in JKL VWP data behind the latter cluster, may support a
    focused swath of damaging wind and embedded hail threat persisting
    into the late afternoon to early evening.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8NFPQFgymaPyBcGNAiXqDgIWCmv-H_hghG0xwd_tPxzWI47wxupMl5-RW6HzF_SPEcajvzBrb= xCMEaJ-yE3rhaZf5jg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37698001 37817966 37977886 38027807 37937751 37717727
    37177723 36707736 36457757 36257787 36177857 36087931
    36198036 36798010 37418008 37698001=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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