ACUS11 KWNS 161930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161930=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-162130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...northeast WI into central Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 161930Z - 162130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts with small to marginally severe hail
will be possible into early evening with high-based thunderstorms
advancing north-northeast from northeast Wisconsin into central
Upper Michigan.

DISCUSSION...Scattered high-based thunderstorms have developed
downstream of the vertically stacked cyclone over northern MN.
Despite surface dew points only in the 40s to low 50s, storm
development has been sustained where temperatures warmed into the
low to mid 80s. This has yielded a deep inverted-v thermodynamic
profile. Shear within the buoyancy layer appears weak, but the steep
lapse rates through the troposphere will foster small to marginally
severe hail cores. This should enhance downdrafts and could support
strong to severe microbursts as convection spreads northeast through
the rest of the afternoon.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_2vtpyYG5DF13kid9mnVsj7vbJSFTesICGtQTs_th5GcyulLGokVylMUnQjsjJJ_slYmvP9od= 9WPW3oZtqhgUicHfJc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 44628927 45438876 46298799 46768742 46848709 46658619
46098615 44328741 44198789 44158879 44268912 44628927=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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