ACUS11 KWNS 162011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162010=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...much of northeast Texas into much of southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 162010Z - 162215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms appear likely later this
afternoon, with large hail and locally damaging gusts the most
likely threats.

DISCUSSION...The primary surface front currently extends from near
Ft. Smith AR southwestward into parts of North Texas, with very
strong instability in place. A special 19Z FWD sounding shows MLCAPE
of 3250 J/kg, along with 0-6 km shear around 55 kt.=20

Weak convergence along the front and continued heating should result
in sporadic storm development along this boundary, and the
environment will supercells producing very large hail. Visible
imagery shows towering CU along portions of the front, and
initiation appears likely in the next couple hours.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5MEXlaQeMgWTj3H3sSK33wJmcycpxIH5kYHfWO2QJs1j1VXvoptC7wn33ehsC-Ba8zm75uUrw= 06bSB4Ulp5i0G03HP0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34369509 34789443 35099394 35249302 35189235 34959178
34279140 33559168 31649578 31279754 31699831 32319820
32579790 33369643 34369509=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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