1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0820

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 20:16:28 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 162015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162014=20
    MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-162215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0820
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...western/central PA to northern VA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263...

    Valid 162014Z - 162215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A mix of damaging winds and severe hail remains possible
    through early evening from western to central Pennsylvania southward
    into northern Virginia. A corridor of greater damaging wind
    potential is apparent in central Maryland, the District of Columbia,
    and far northern Virginia.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has steadily increased ahead of a
    minor MCV, and separately along a wavy outflow boundary. Measured
    strong to severe wind gusts have occurred along the outflow
    associated with the MCV. Very strong mid-level winds persist in the
    wake of this MCV, as sampled by recent RLX VWP data. With surface
    temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of this outflow, yielding
    peak MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, damaging wind swaths are most
    probable into central MD to far northern VA. Farther north,
    convection has largely struggled, outside of a slow-moving supercell
    along the separate outflow boundary in south-central PA. Mixed
    severe hail and damaging wind will remain possible here, amid weak
    low-level shear/SRH.

    ..Grams.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9I7f1KkQZJ0Cko5Cn2XZlGl8EldXRLOKWuAJfeMSfd3iENs9RUZf1J2eofOr4tOWCpPdm_y4a= EzGvOsX3tzvCoaU9NU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 41077947 41107851 41097790 40777722 39657638 38947630
    38457635 38177670 38587811 39107820 39617826 40137886
    40727947 41077947=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)