ACUS11 KWNS 162207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162206=20
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0821
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 265...

Valid 162206Z - 170000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 265 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase over western
Kentucky over the next 1 to 2 hours, where a few strong tornadoes
will be likely. A long-track high-end tornado may occur. In
addition, very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter, and
wind gusts exceeding 75 mph will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of severe storms is currently ongoing from
far western Kentucky northward into southern Illinois. The storms
are located near a maximum in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated
in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, a
shortwave trough and distinct vorticity max is evident on water
vapor imagery. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max,
is contributing to strong deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent.
As a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet strengthens across the lower Ohio
Valley from late afternoon into the early evening, a threat for
supercells with tornadoes will continue. The 19Z sounding from
Nashville had a looped hodograph, with 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity around 300 m2/s2. As low-level shear increases over the
next few hours, a few strong tornadoes will be likely, and a
long-track high-end tornado will be possible. The greatest tornado
potential will be in an east-to-west corridor across western
Kentucky. In addition, supercells will also be capable of producing
very large hail greater than 3 inches in diameter, and wind gusts
exceeding 80 mph.

Further to the north into parts of southern Illinois and southern
Indiana, a tornado threat is expected. In addition to tornadoes, the
more intense supercells and/or short intense line segments will be
capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph will
be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9HOr6aQZlOcx6GenMHHK9VE0zd6jF-NB8q5glTR976_eaetb_0UKc5n0l4YycEEYKP1ON7xUC= twSr_xLFRBblbb-K-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38558523 37798516 37158534 36598575 36428658 36458766
36608889 36988946 37608940 38588882 38928831 39038718
39008637 38838554 38558523=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


=3D =3D =3D
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