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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0822

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 22:13:23 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 162213
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162213=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-162345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0822
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0513 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263...264...266...

    Valid 162213Z - 162345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263, 264,
    266 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat across the Mid Atlantic continues, with
    damaging straight-line winds in excess of 60 MPH and hail around
    1.00-1.50" expected. These storms will continue to move eastward
    into the evening, and eventually offshore into the Atlantic.

    DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms ongoing across the Mid Atlantic
    have been responsible for widespread reports of 50-65 MPH wind gusts
    and wind damage, along with reports of 1.00-1.50" hail. These storms
    are expected to remain severe as they cross the Chesapeake Bay into
    eastern Maryland and Delaware, before eventually moving offshore
    into the Atlantic.=20

    Additionally, an isolated supercell thunderstorm has developed ahead
    of the line in eastern Maryland. VAD wind profiles from Dover AFB
    show some low-level curvature of the hodograph (sfc-1km SRH ~180
    m^2/s^2). While damaging winds and hail are the primary threat, some
    tornado potential does exist with this discrete convection.

    ..Halbert.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ONdc_epJEtYlY7-24_wN9-th53CMrDUxgdNAEfjPPbzw3xGAHsO5VnugmxiJ5zriglxiGQFh= bgmEwAISryYllrGDws$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 37817630 37837633 38117663 38457674 38747682 39057675
    39307671 39607651 39777646 39787594 39517542 39047499
    38587495 38137502 37877519 37767579 37777616 37817630=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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