ACUS11 KWNS 162251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162251=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-170045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Indiana...Southwest Ohio...Central and
Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 265...

Valid 162251Z - 170045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 265 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase over southeast Indiana,
southwest Ohio, southward into central and eastern Kentucky over the
next few hours. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be
likely with the more intense storms. Weather watch issuance will be
needed.

DISCUSSION...According to mosaic radar imagery, a cluster of
supercells is currently ongoing across much of the lower Ohio
Valley. This cluster is being supported by a shortwave trough, and
an associated 70 to 80 knot mid-level jet, that will move eastward
toward the central Appalachians this evening. In response to the
wave, an 850 mb jet will strengthen and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley. This will provide support for continued thunderstorm
development, and convective coverage is expected to increase over
the next few hours. These storms will move through the eastern part
of WW 265, necessitating new watch issuance to the east of the
ongoing watch. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear, associated
with the Ohio Valley system, will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. RAP forecast soundings at 03Z
for Jackson, Kentucky have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This will be
favorable for a few strong tornadoes.

As convective coverage increases, a transition to more linear
structure is expected to take place during the mid to late evening.
As a result, the wind-damage threat will likely increase. The faster
moving bowing line segments could produce wind gusts exceeding 75
mph.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gber3SbCKcZEDxsDZlL-C85EQQXQ8SiZ70-dMiKoK4C4VhAqnJQn0GILkNLwibb39gGXKoWQ= sgTYBNle_Y7RNMNnOc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 40138366 40258539 39988602 38988654 37428686 36758648
36648570 36648555 36638426 36868368 37528318 39388306
40138366=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)