ACUS11 KWNS 162253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162253=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-170030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...Far southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264...

Valid 162253Z - 170030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail
will continue into the evening, before gradually dissipating and
moving offshore into the Atlantic.

DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing across
portions of far southeastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina,
capable of damaging straight-line winds and large hail. Recent radar
scans from Wakefield, VA show 60-65 kts at 600-700 ft ARL, primarily
along the leading edge of the convection. Warn on Forecast guidance
also indicates this convection will persist into the evening, with
some locally higher probabilities of 50+ kt winds before dissipating
and moving offshore.

..Halbert.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_U4BjPWtfEbiU1nvyvK3MqfABzj9OmfhteW5kq58Ae0ezDfP_aEoZ0jAJioGzXMPkNoMULlFk= xFJJp-s3r5M1Fd9KcQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 36007731 36197778 36247790 36327794 36427789 36537777
36807744 37057725 37167716 37267709 37337706 37317695
37167660 37037630 36717588 36297569 35967560 35797663
36007731=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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