ACUS11 KWNS 162323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162323=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...Western Tennessee...Far
Northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 262...

Valid 162323Z - 170130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 262 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to develop over the next few
hours across parts of northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee and far
northern Mississippi. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a
northeast-to-southwest oriented line of supercells from southern
Illinois into southeast Missouri and far northern Arkansas. These
storms are located ahead of a cold front, along the western edge of
an axis of strong instability. MLCAPE along the instability axis is
estimated to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, according to the
RAP. The instability and large-scale ascent, associated with a
shortwave trough moving through the lower Ohio Valley, will support
new convective development to the south of the ongoing activity
across northeastern Arkansas over the next couple of hours. These
new storms are expected to move eastward into western Tennessee
later this evening. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Memphis has 0-6 km
near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2.
This environment will support supercells and tornadoes. In addition,
steep low to mid-level lapse rates are in the 7 to 8 C/km range,
according to the RAP. This suggests that large hail will be likely
with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will
be possible with the more intense cores. Severe wind gusts, with
some potentially above 75 mph, will be possible.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5O4ERCuZ_h_0CweGGGRVlVPiUiRoNyJHO4aR42gVKkHAZOibe589yBCviri6H3sd-iqc0csW0= FHM3J6nds13b93xBnA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 34828988 34928926 35178887 35638871 36078873 36348889
36598946 36669128 36479228 35949270 35239268 34939236
34829199 34799147 34828988=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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