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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0826

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 23:58:13 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 162356
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162356=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-170200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0826
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0656 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Illinois...Southern Indiana...Western and
    Central Kentucky...Far Southeast Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 265...

    Valid 162356Z - 170200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 265 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue over the next couple of
    hours across the lower Ohio Valley. Strong tornadoes will be likely
    with the intense supercells, and a long-track tornado will be
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of
    supercells across the lower Ohio Valley. Intense supercells with
    tornadoes, potentially strong, are ongoing in far southern Illinois, southwestern Kentucky, and southern Indiana. A 45 to 55 knot
    low-level jet has developed across southern Illinois, according to
    the RAP. This feature has increased low-level shear, which has
    become increasingly favorable for strong tornadoes. The WSR-88D near
    the Ohio River in far southern Illinois and western Kentucky have
    strong directional shear in the low-levels with looping hodographs.
    0-3 km storm-relative helicity is in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range,
    suggesting that strong tornadoes will be likely with most intense
    supercells. A long-track tornado will also be possible over the next
    hour or two. Supercells will also be capable of producing hail in
    the 3 to 4 inch range, and damaging wind gusts above 75 mph.

    ..Broyles.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_A951rxCcIdrNPr8hu4fITixDSKD3oiTQaIh8nGEDiKI751VwgnBLwXlA_jdHI6sUp8eBbsNr= uDLCtIhew5Dj9qzI44$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 36828694 36818891 36898944 37198972 37508959 38718859
    39438782 39458618 39238506 38978477 38418481 37478517
    36908579 36828694=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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