ACUS11 KWNS 170023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170023=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-170230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Great Lakes

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170023Z - 170230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some instances of severe hail and wind possible with
thunderstorms activity this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of far southeastern WI/northeastern IL and into portions of lower Michigan.
Within this region, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates is
in place amid MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is strongest
across the southern Michigan peninsula, where 0-6 km shear around
40-50kts is in place. This environment will support a few instances
of severe hail and wind. It is unlikely a watch will be needed at
this time due to generally weak instability and loss of daytime
heating.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4MjKTTrk1NmRJJ-cmrbuSyROppERqPgV32oYdRCkHgx22-u9IsAEcEU2OQdZCIaZ9JtkOkWgw= XXNdfSlNRtkvpaIj-0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON 42598458 41658732 42328780 43008791 43528790 44018755
44948595 45058587 45358483 45198421 44568376 44068359
43508370 42938413 42598458=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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