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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0828

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 17 00:28:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 170027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170027=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-170230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0828
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0727 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...Central and northern Texas...as well as portions of
    southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...

    Valid 170027Z - 170230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing
    across portions of central and northern Texas. These storms will be
    capable of large to very-large hail and damaging wind gusts into the
    evening hours. Conditions are being monitored for additional watch
    issuance downstream of WW 267 into southern Arkansas and northern
    Louisiana.

    DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms have developed in central and
    northern Texas in the vicinity of a surface cold front and dryline,
    with an environment characterized by very large buoyancy and strong
    (largely unidirectional) shear vectors supportive of supercell
    thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds. The 00Z
    sounding from FWD shows very steep 700-500mb lapse rates, 500mb
    temperatures of -11 C, and 80 kts of effective bulk shear -- all
    supportive of hail exceeding 2". Initially straight-line hodographs
    will favor splitting supercells, with a left split already evident
    in central Texas with a storm motion taking it towards the DFW
    metroplex later this evening, in addition to the ongoing convection
    there at this time.=20

    Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue to the north and east
    later into the evening, with conditions being monitored for
    downstream watch issuance in southern Arkansas and northern
    Louisiana. Uncertainty exists in convective coverage and longevity,
    but any storms that do persist or develop along the surface cold
    front would be capable of very large hail and damaging winds.

    ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!69_bniVV9rjHkRRjnfgvJuJC5oS62NgK-Zmi7P3e_8SO3dVetLuZBBVHzHeNH6PL0bzUsFuUL= rmthHnwAQaQMXfwcCc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30709863 31309855 32179843 32789795 33199735 34039473
    34249401 34279315 34009261 33589204 33189182 32809175
    32419196 32169267 31639430 31389508 30879616 30749656
    30659698 30559754 30529825 30709863=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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