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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0829

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 17 00:39:54 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 170038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170037=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-170300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0829
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0737 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...Central and Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 170037Z - 170300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado / wind-damage threat may develop across parts of
    central and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania later this
    evening. As a severe convective line organizes and approaches,
    weather watch issuance may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of
    supercells in the lower Ohio valley. These storms are located along
    and near an axis of moderate to strong instability. The northern
    extension of the instability axis is located from central and
    northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania, where MLCAPE is in the
    1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. As the convective
    cluster grows upscale, a linear MCS is expected to organize and move
    eastward through the remainder of the Ohio Valley this evening.
    Short-term model forecasts suggest the severe MCS will move eastward
    into the central Appalachians. Uncertainty exists concerning how far
    north this feature will track. If the severe part of the MCS ends up
    moving through central and northern Ohio, then a severe threat will
    be likely over parts of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania by mid
    to late evening. QLCS tornadoes and wind-damage will be the primary
    threats.

    ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-W_lBs2u86BLqaFDE-lk6cW5INn0lOpI_DK3Q9343SX7ODvhanuHPxskQXKdPvRAi49pf6N7l= GKC9Dy7OUtEwEy0bLM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40358297 40198141 40508065 41238044 41808100 41838224
    41648344 41468379 40908372 40358297=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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