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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0831

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 17 03:13:03 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 170312
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170312=20
    WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-170515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0831
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1012 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

    Areas affected...Western West Virginia...Southern and Eastern Kentucky...Northern Tennessee

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 269...

    Valid 170312Z - 170515Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 269 continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, large hail and wind damage will
    continue over the next 2 to 3 hours. A few strong tornadoes will be
    possible. As severe storms move toward the edge of WW 269, an
    extension or new watch may be required.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large area of
    severe storms extending from the Ohio Valley west-southwestward into
    the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the storms, moderate
    instability is analyzed by the RAP from middle Tennessee northward
    into central and eastern Kentucky. The storms will continue to move
    into this instability, which will help maintain updraft intensity.
    In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Nashville has strong directional
    shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near
    700 m2/s2. This shear environment will continue to support a tornado
    threat with supercells. A few strong tornadoes will be possible with
    the most intense supercells. Also, the RAP shows a plume of steep
    mid-level lapse rates extending eastward across Tennessee and
    southern Kentucky, suggesting that large hail will continue to be
    possible with the supercells.

    Over the last couple of hours, a gradual transition to a linear mode
    has occurred ahead of a cold front. This line will catch up to the
    more discrete cells. As this happens, the wind-damage threat will
    increase and become more dominant. Severe gusts exceeding 75 mph
    will be possible along the faster moving parts of the line.

    ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8sqUAV7FzyBwRv5T1fwvdy7efhKbyIVojWq2n3rsU58hLNBjSuP4BQxOAnzMePfFISnxGFGDo= AIW2fdUClQxiwYItnI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36168340 37148211 37908175 38468189 38658238 38518287
    37988376 37388523 36958743 36668807 36348817 36118765
    36088558 36168340=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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