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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0832

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 17 06:56:50 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 170651
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170650=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-170745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0832
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

    Areas affected...northern Mississippi into northern and central
    Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 170650Z - 170745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across northern Mississippi should
    continue moving east through the morning. A downstream watch may be
    necessary in the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues across southern
    Arkansas into northern Mississippi where an environment
    characterized by strong instability and deep-layer shear are
    supporting robust updrafts. Recent radar trends suggest hail up to
    1.5" in diameter and gusty winds are possible with the strongest of
    these thunderstorm cores.=20

    The environment ahead of these storms remains conducive for robust
    updrafts with MLCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg (and MUCAPE between
    2000-3000 J/kg) and deep-layer shear in excess of 50 knots. Thus,
    the area downstream of Tornado Watch #270 is being monitored for a
    potential new watch, and/or an extension in space of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch #274.=20

    Increasing convective inhibition may yield increasingly elevated
    thunderstorms with time, favoring large hail and gusty winds as the
    primary severe hazards. However, the overall environment will remain
    conducive for supercell thunderstorms and with effective-layer SRH
    between 200-300 a tornado cannot be ruled out.

    Across northern Alabama the threat is a bit more uncertain. Here a
    long-lived linear MCS continues to push south through Tennessee.
    Although thunderstorm activity within this line has been sub-severe
    of late, the overall environment remains fairly conducive for robust thunderstorm updrafts and perhaps a severe hail and wind threat. If thunderstorm intensity increases as these Tennessee thunderstorms
    approach Alabama, a need for a downstream watch will become
    necessary for portions of northern Alabama.

    ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fRby3OSaIxMfcoKjNVekRoQI_XZd2lrjMeG54ybYMWOAmVkpZ2WrW-W7ophRN06Bnx-zztmJ= o0BdrDZNiLCP3CxbK0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 33239095 33969101 34419000 34808745 34778557 32908685
    33239095=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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