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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0840

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 17 19:11:02 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 171910
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171910=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-171945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0840
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

    Areas affected...much of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon=20

    Valid 171910Z - 171945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will rapidly form over northwest Texas and spread
    into southern Oklahoma and across much of North Texas. Very large
    damaging hail is expected, along with corridors of wind damage.

    DISCUSSION...Warm front continues to move northward into
    south-central OK, with a very moist and unstable air mass developing
    to the south. Meanwhile, a dryline arcs from near CDS into
    west-central TX.=20

    Visible imagery show rapid TCU near SPS and extending southward
    toward BWD. Extreme instability is already in place with MLCAPE
    approaching 5000 J/kg. Meanwhile, hodographs are elongated with
    nearly 60 kt effective deep-layer shear.

    Storms will develop soon and spread primarily eastward. Both
    supercells and bows are possible. Splitting cells may move
    northeastward across much of southern OK as well. The extreme
    instability coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable
    shear will support significant damaging hail and wind.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9yd4amdzq1BcVHX4h_8gQdscL8x9Xv7XOTDLmVLWtRLqaJtfqwAeHXZ47U-cM7LQSxvJHGyaF= eKktnRkB4J5IE3OPbk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31869849 32329909 33689924 34269896 34669840 34819731
    34629631 34219547 33929521 33139519 32439552 32119646
    31869849=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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