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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0843

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 17 21:35:33 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 172135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172135=20
    OKZ000-172300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0843
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0435 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

    Areas affected...Central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 279...

    Valid 172135Z - 172300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat for WW 279 is increasing, with an
    isolated supercell thunderstorm ongoing across central Oklahoma. All
    hazards are anticipated, including hail larger than 2.00", 65-80 MPH
    winds, and tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an ongoing supercell
    thunderstorm that is undergoing an updraft split. 20Z OUN sounding
    data and KTLX VAD data show very strong low-level shear and
    streamwise vorticity that will favor the right split and an eastward
    storm motion along the warm front, resulting in increased tornado
    potential this afternoon into the evening. A strong tornado is
    possible with the right splitting supercell as it approaches and
    crosses the I-35 corridor in the next 1-2 hours. Echo tops on the
    right-split of the supercell have increased to 55 kft, suggesting
    rapid updraft intensification. Any additional thunderstorms that
    develop and interact with the warm front will be capable of all
    hazards.

    ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!--_jR1lps7Eh8I1zUajoo2UR2bk3lVAUKXI-2gyhjWqCUQ3h5HFOtCtfWSroOJZ3_U0h926bm= TDnMY2tLPZuDBIcnBo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34389875 34659956 34919988 35359994 35589951 35769911
    35659756 35549688 35279585 34909543 34499561 34259620
    34239737 34389875=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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