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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0845

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 17 23:42:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 172342
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172341=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0845
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0641 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

    Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 172341Z - 180215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage, large hail and isolated tornado threat is
    expected to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex early this
    evening. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Fort Worth, Texas shows
    multiple clusters of severe storms across northeast Texas. The
    storms are located along the western edge of a pocket of strong to
    extreme instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500
    J/kg range. Water vapor imagery suggests that a shortwave trough is
    moving through north-central Texas. Large-scale ascent associated
    with this feature will support the continued development of strong=20 thunderstorms. Short-term forecasts, including the HRRR, move these
    storms east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex over the next few
    hours. In the Ark-La-Tex, the latest RAP shows steep low-level lapse
    rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, along with moderate deep-layer shear.
    This is evident on the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP which has 0-6 km shear
    near 50 knots. This environment will likely be favorable for a
    severe threat with wind damage and large hail possible. An isolated
    tornado could also develop.

    ..Broyles.. 05/17/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4kTyEbdV6F0c4-YGqgi2JSGs5fnTYuNpYz4WOjB5JE2hR5vB6SGEOKHVW9LTn3LSljqKLlUwa= guFXoSeQbqxb5xJpQA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 34629278 34869367 34859443 34459505 33629536 32869518
    32519454 32399371 32509288 33039236 33749216 34299225
    34629278=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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