ACUS11 KWNS 172344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172343=20
TXZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278...280...

Valid 172343Z - 180115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278, 280
continues.

SUMMARY...While convective coverage remains relatively low, some new thunderstorm development could potentially pose a risk for hail and
damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage across WW 280 remains relatively
low. However, additional thunderstorm development has occurred over
central Texas, with fairly robust echo tops around 45 kft and higher reflectivity cores. However, this storm is moving into an area of
convective outflow. It is uncertain if thunderstorm activity will
persist -- albeit, rooted above the boundary layer -- or dissipate
as it enters the colder air. Still, as this storm moves northward
into WW 278, it may pose an additional risk for severe hail and
damaging winds.

..Halbert.. 05/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WNf3Su9eDS_x6Z32QF5hZTS-uVaSM45Pi8GyVaLdAlIhzS98NOVXY0p32nGE3DwWqpoNJ90g= FQMKlFfSEGr3Y_nqnA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30790030 31129976 31589922 32049881 32179822 32199760
31789713 31559730 31209737 30779779 30479844 30209923
30289985 30540026 30790030=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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