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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0848

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 18 02:58:16 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 180254
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180253=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0848
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0953 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

    Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...

    Valid 180253Z - 180500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across the
    Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. Wind damage and hail will be the
    primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of severe storms are currently ongoing in
    southeast Oklahoma, according to mosaic radar imagery. The activity
    is located along and near an axis of moderate instability, where
    MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, according
    to the RAP. The convection is being supported by a subtle shortwave
    trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex. In
    addition, the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 55 knots.
    Forecast soundings late this evening in the Ark-La-Tex have steep
    low to mid-level lapse rates suggesting that a wind-damage threat
    will continue. Hail could also occur. The threat should become more
    isolated with time as instability gradually decreases, and as a weak
    capping inversion increases.

    ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_xKKQqXpSJ1oCHnfr8WHxFl1Mh-fuFNXf_IGReYeShSrUf_kRQGqAYhjYZqzLW_Kz55hUF432= 6vhuZK0D-jXpYRpCt4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34349332 33809276 33289287 32999327 32979374 33149447
    33609522 34049562 34509571 34959535 35009479 34699398
    34349332=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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