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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0851

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 18 08:20:38 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 180816
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180815=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-180915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0851
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

    Areas affected...central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...

    Valid 180815Z - 180915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Organized cluster of thunderstorms will continue to pose a
    threat of large hail and damaging winds. An extension in time for
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch #283 will be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A linear MCS has organized across central Oklahoma this
    morning and will continue to move east/east-southeast along an
    instability axis stretching from northwest Oklahoma into southeast
    Arkansas. To the south of this axis, rich low-level moisture couples
    with steep mid-level lapse rates to yield MUCAPE in excess of 3500
    J/kg. Effective-layer shear is generally greater than 45-50 knots,
    which is more than sufficient to maintain updraft organization. In
    fact, recently the Oklahoma Mesonet station in Okmulgee, OK,
    measured a 60 mph wind gust.

    This MCS is currently contained within Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    #283, which is set to expire at the top of the hour (0900 UTC / 0400
    AM CT). Given that the overall environment remains supportive of
    organized severe weather, and the existing organized MCS, within
    this environment, the threat for large hail and damaging winds will
    likely continue past the original expiration time of 0900 UTC (4 AM
    CT). As such, a local extension in space and time (to 1200 UTC / 7
    AM CT) has been coordinated with WFO TSA.

    ..Marsh.. 05/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gLR_CCj9KCAitpWS1IILSvk4HR14wb8rooRwvuHbmY6UXt1d0iFpNqJZDiRc_rlrXgai0fi6= tsN_Md5xP7t3D-5KSg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35179666 36179574 36109350 34649473 35179666=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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