ACUS11 KWNS 180924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180923=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-181030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 180923Z - 181030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms will move out of existing Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #283. Conditions are being monitored to determine
if a small downstream watch is needed.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing MCS across eastern Oklahoma is moving
east-southeast along an instability gradient stretching from
northwest Oklahoma into southeast Arkansas. Recent Oklahoma Mesonet
peak gusts have reported 58 mph gust in Webbers Falls, OK, and 55
mph gust in Sallisaw, OK, which are slightly down from upstream wind measurements.=20

Despite the recent downward trend in measured wind, the MCS is well
developed and organized, has access to more than sufficient
instability, and deep-layer shear around 50 knots. The thunderstorms
are approaching the eastern edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #283
so trends continue to be assessed to determine if a small,
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be necessary over parts of
Arkansas.

..Marsh/Smith.. 05/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Sp0Fm1vCiMeibi9x6pQK2jSYZCjGPRsynyhekPTd2lE0UDN0FDSjPXnnl6qmBnodDxmhpoJq= tVVnbwxSz0w9xwm4nI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 34989586 36099501 34839056 33839137 34989586=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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