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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0853

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 18 11:41:16 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 181141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181140=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-181245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0853
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0640 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

    Areas affected...Central Alabama and far west-central Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 181140Z - 181245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster moving across central Alabama will
    pose a threat for isolated large hail and wind damage in the near
    term. Longer term evolution of this cluster is less certain, but the
    area will continue to be monitored for potential watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms continues to move
    across central Alabama this morning along the instability gradient.
    The strongest of these thunderstorms (located across eastern
    Tuscaloosa County) appears to have increased in intensity over the
    last hour and has even developed a rear-inflow jet (RIJ) --
    suggested by radar reflectivity structure and an increase in
    rear-to-front wind speeds. This will pose a damaging wind threat in
    the short term.

    Additionally, overall reflectivity structure of the thunderstorm
    complex suggests the development of a mesoscale convective vortex.
    Should this be the case, an increase in updraft intensity would be
    expected in the near term owing to increasing convergence and
    stronger deep-layer shear. MUCAPE is around 1000 J/kg and deep-layer
    shear around 50 knots across the thunderstorm cluster now, but drops
    off to around 1000 J/kg and 30-40 knots as the cluster approaches
    western Georgia.

    As the thunderstorms move east, the lack of clarity of the MCV
    evolution and a slightly less favorable environment results in
    uncertainty as to whether a severe thunderstorm watch will be needed downstream. Conditions will continue to be monitored for potential
    watch issuance.

    ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8-sgIUhPxrWVI2hZE9DYs7LaE_blMA79donJAIYDeX6omNruOk-lM2-cbx_PE8Dr8LuFutXHp= W4sOpqIOfNiboCg2NY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

    LAT...LON 33668760 33848657 33438503 32818492 33038744 33668760=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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