ACUS11 KWNS 261755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261754=20
PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-262000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...northern
Virginia...Maryland...Delaware...DC...eastern West
Virginia...southern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261754Z - 262000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging winds possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has begun to initiate across
portions of the Appalachians. This activity is expected to continue
to expand in coverage through the afternoon/evening. The environment
to the east is hot and unstable (with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg)
and temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s. Despite the weak flow
aloft and weak shear, steep low-level lapse rates (around 7.5-8
C/km) and moist profiles will support potential for wet downbursts
and damaging outflow winds. This area will be monitored for watch
potential through the afternoon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49HwixHfCFv60ViYst-V3IXpWVGtYtG-xuBBrOkCMbETRRRT1MbwSZf6qm0pLVjzeJOB2yTnX= JAol9vJqZNnqB3rmEU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38957561 37447702 37567833 37957905 38227927 38847910
39967829 40917720 41327647 41147576 40397519 39057557
38957561=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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