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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1538

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 2 00:45:43 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020043=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-020215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1538
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0743 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

    Areas affected...portions of western South Dakota...western
    Nebraska...and eastern Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482...

    Valid 020043Z - 020215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms, including a few supercells are
    ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Large hail and
    damaging winds are likely to continue.

    DISCUSSION...Across WW 482, several clusters of severe storms are
    ongoing and expected to continue this evening. Several supercells
    have organized across southern SD with reports of hail and damaging
    gusts. The environment downstream remains favorable for supercells
    with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of bulk shear. Hail
    appears to be the most likely threat given the supercell mode.
    However, some upscale growth has already been noted, and is expected
    to continue this evening with consolidating outflows. This would
    support an increasing risk for damaging winds, given MLCL height of
    1700-2000 m and DCAPE of 1500+ J/kg.

    Additional strong to occasional severe storms may continue across
    western SD and far southeast MT. With less buoyancy and increasing
    MLCINH, confidence in a sustained severe risk is lower but hail and
    damaging gusts remain possible.

    ..Lyons.. 07/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ex6mZzbFOmsDPY1YRz3K9R2WDWtzw40H1y1dZIoHDvVT5UFGZflYwhD1f3mxLJtd2dsOiJs7= 9BHr_mra-dPB_fYhjU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 44940474 45040166 43720023 42040028 41110062 40920207
    40870286 41120327 41210336 44940474=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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