ACUS11 KWNS 022042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022042=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...southern/central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022042Z - 022215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Erratic and isolated severe gusts will remain possible
across a broad portion of southern to central Montana over the next
few hours. Whether sufficient coverage/organization potential will
exist for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have been gradually increasing
across the higher terrain of southwest/south-central MT. Despite
meager buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear, one initial cell
produced a measured severe gust of 64 kts at KDLN. This activity is
expected to spread northward, mainly across the central portion of
MT, into early evening where the downstream airmass is slightly more
unstable. With 40-50 F surface temperature-dew point spreads,
sporadic severe gusts are the expected hazard. Coverage of both
convection and organizational potential is uncertain. Short-term
guidance suggest severe gust potential may remain erratic with
relatively disorganized convection. It is possible that a loosely
organized cluster might evolve to the north-northeast at some point
during the early evening, which would raise the potential of
downstream watch issuance.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!41wAzJQ-vgadI5lYfeMyhn_5G1JDYJY-VhyvjU6VJg4pVOyE4JSD8ZdgQGDxnK00I_CP9rQMr= cWO4X2PbieqfFI4s-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 48390825 47450806 45610827 45120967 44811229 45111259
46041309 46981319 47801197 48501044 48390825=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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