ACUS11 KWNS 022145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022145=20
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-022345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern/eastern Nevada...western Utah
and far northwest Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 022145Z - 022345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will
continue to pose a risk for sporadic severe gusts through this
evening. Weak buoyancy and limited organization potential suggest a
WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed scattered high-base showers and thunderstorms ongoing over
much of the southern Great Basin. Aided by ascent from broad western
US troughing and diurnal heating, additional convective development
appears likely through this evening. Weak buoyancy above a deeply
mixed boundary layer will support strong evaporation potential in
thunderstorm downdrafts, with MLCL heights greater than 2000m AGL.
In combination with weak vertical shear, a pulse multicellular mode
is favored, with the stronger storm clusters capable of sporadic
severe gusts. Given the limited potential for storm organization, a
more widespread severe risk appears unlikely. Convection will
gradually diminish in coverage this evening with the loss of diurnal
heating. However, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
likely to continue overnight with occasional potential for strong
downdrafts given the dry low-level air mass. A WW is unlikely given
the limited nature of the threat.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4gEj-UaETKwhZy9tXzrAdsGfBdx_kdcqGk41F-H7YEU7RT6jG1y4RVsg0ou4a-u8DILfy3sIF= q9LAm6KpqryM2_177A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 36681684 37901646 39401587 40131647 40761605 40701390
39751259 38481244 37771248 37081278 36341324 35791396
35671512 35761573 36681684=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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