1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1555

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 4 02:11:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 040211
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040210=20
    NDZ000-040345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1555
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of western North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...

    Valid 040210Z - 040345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and locally severe gusts remain possible with
    evolving thunderstorms over western North Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms that initiated along a
    NNE/SSW-oriented surface wind shift in western ND have shown
    transient intensification as they track slowly eastward off the
    boundary. Ahead of these storms, very steep midlevel lapse rates
    (accompanying an EML) atop lower 70s dewpoints are contributing to strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. While low-level inhibition at
    the base of the EML and weak large-scale forcing for ascent do cast
    some uncertainty on storm maintenance/longevity (especially in the
    near-term), the strong-extreme buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective
    shear will conditionally favor supercells with a risk of large hail
    and locally severe gusts. With time, large-scale forcing for ascent
    will increase ahead of an approaching midlevel trough currently
    moving into eastern MT, along with low-level warm advection along
    the western periphery of a strengthening low-level jet. This should
    promote additional strong-severe thunderstorms in the next few
    hours.

    ..Weinman.. 07/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4VoGHrQ6eXllTaMeyCTbKTfa5HuOIbFbnL4TEocxhaVf3gmpg6dOkGXMGPva7YJpnWgT8njnO= y1gD4B_B0I6A2JyND8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48130265 48330232 48340178 48040140 47360146 46660172
    46110232 46050302 46110341 46350359 47140352 48130265=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)