941
AXNT20 KNHC 102116
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
08N between 42W and 47W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, S of 15N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted S of 10N between 53W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, S of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S
of 12N between 60W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W
and extends SW to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04N41W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N
between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is across the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the
Yucatan Channel as well as over the Yucatan peninsula. Another
surface trough is over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail across most of the Gulf, except 2-3 ft over
the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient will support gentle
to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north- central Gulf
into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure center may
emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu
night and then track slowly northwestward through the weekend.
This feature will enhance the pressure gradient, resulting in
fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and west-
central Gulf. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rough seas
are also expected across the same area into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area, the
eastern north Pacific monsoon trough, and broad low pressure
around TD Cristina is supporting fresh to locally strong winds
over central and western Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in
the 4-7 ft range. Over the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate to
rough seas will prevail from the south-central to northwestern
basin into early week. During the weekend, the high over the
western Atlantic is expected to strengthen further, and cause
fresh E trades to expand northward into the north-central basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N59W across the northern
waters to near 30N77W. A surface trough is found S of the front
from 31N56W to 23N68W, with a weak 1017 mb surface low along the
trough near 24N65W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of the low
along the trough. High pressure prevails across the remainder of
the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
39N28W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over
the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas
of 6-8 ft are noted N of 20N and E of 23W. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, The low will dissipate as it moves
northeastward along the trough through Thu. The frontal boundary
will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. The
Atlantic ridge will then build across the region late Thu through
Fri along roughly 25N. This pattern will support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night
through Sun night.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

116
AXNT20 KNHC 110431
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0431 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical waves has emerged off the coast of West Africa.
This wave is near 17W, S of 11.5N. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is depicted from 02.5N to 10N and east of 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
07N between 44W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, S of 15N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 13N between 57W and 61W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, S of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in
association to this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W
and extends SW to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 04N50W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N
between 20W and 34.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is across the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the
Yucatan Channel as well as over the Yucatan peninsula, and the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east winds prevail
across the Gulf, except north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where
fresh to locally strong easterly winds prevail. Seas 2 to 5 ft
prevail across the basin, except for seas 5 to 6 ft north of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to support
gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north-
central Gulf into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure
center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of
Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through
the weekend. It will enhance the gradient with the surface ridge,
causing fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and
west-central Gulf. It will also trigger scattered to numerous
thunderstorms and rough seas across the same area into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is depicted west of 80W. The
pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area, the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough, and broad low pressure around TD
Cristina is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over central
and western Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in the 4-7 ft
range. Over the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a building ridge
of high pressure in the western Atlantic and T.D. Cristina in the
Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador will sustain fresh to
strong E to SE winds with moderate to rough seas from the south-
central to northwestern basin into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary extends from 31N52W across the
northern waters to near 30N77W. A surface trough is found S of the
front from 29N58W to 21N70W, with a weak 1016 mb surface low
along the trough near 26N62W. Isolated moderate convection is near
the low along the trough. High pressure prevails across the
remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high
centered near 40N26W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail over the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. South of 20N, and
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles moderate to fresh NE to E
winds prevail along with seas 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds,
and seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 20N and E of 25W. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, The low will dissipate as it moves
northeastward along the trough through Thu. Meanwhile, a
stationary frontal boundary currently along 28N will dissipate
overnight. The Atlantic ridge will then build across the region
late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this
pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of
Hispaniola at night from Fri night through early next week.

$$
KRV

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

189
AXNT20 KNHC 110431
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0431 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical waves has emerged off the coast of West Africa.
This wave is near 17W, S of 11.5N. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is depicted from 02.5N to 10N and east of 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
07N between 44W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, S of 15N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted
from 09N to 13N between 57W and 61W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, S of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in
association to this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W
and extends SW to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 04N50W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N
between 20W and 34.5W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is across the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the
Yucatan Channel as well as over the Yucatan peninsula, and the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east winds prevail
across the Gulf, except north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where
fresh to locally strong easterly winds prevail. Seas 2 to 5 ft
prevail across the basin, except for seas 5 to 6 ft north of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to support
gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north-
central Gulf into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure
center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of
Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through
the weekend. It will enhance the gradient with the surface ridge,
causing fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and
west-central Gulf. It will also trigger scattered to numerous
thunderstorms and rough seas across the same area into Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is depicted west of 80W. The
pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area, the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough, and broad low pressure around TD
Cristina is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over central
and western Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in the 4-7 ft
range. Over the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a building ridge
of high pressure in the western Atlantic and T.D. Cristina in the
Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador will sustain fresh to
strong E to SE winds with moderate to rough seas from the south-
central to northwestern basin into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening frontal boundary extends from 31N52W across the
northern waters to near 30N77W. A surface trough is found S of the
front from 29N58W to 21N70W, with a weak 1016 mb surface low
along the trough near 26N62W. Isolated moderate convection is near
the low along the trough. High pressure prevails across the
remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high
centered near 40N26W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail over the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. South of 20N, and
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles moderate to fresh NE to E
winds prevail along with seas 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds,
and seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 20N and E of 25W. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, The low will dissipate as it moves
northeastward along the trough through Thu. Meanwhile, a
stationary frontal boundary currently along 28N will dissipate
overnight. The Atlantic ridge will then build across the region
late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this
pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of
Hispaniola at night from Fri night through early next week.

$$
KRV

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

603
AXNT20 KNHC 110859
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical waves is off the coast of West Africa along 18W, S of
12N. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving westward
at around 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, S of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in
association to this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W
and extends SW to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W
to 03N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 06W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted from 04N and 06N between 45W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a
surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to
18.5N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over
the loop current near 25N86W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass showed fresh to strong SE winds east of the trough to the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer also indicated
moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the western Gulf, and
gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf where weak high pressure is
present. Seas are 4-6 ft between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula
and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the
northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least
Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas
will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland
and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off
eastern Honduras, under diffluent flow aloft. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also active along the coast of Belize.
Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along and
just west of the Windward Islands, between a couple of tropical
waves. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted over the
northwest Caribbean, and fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas
are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwest Caribbean west of 85W through at least Fri night,
between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America
and southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a
1016 mb low pressure area centered near 26N61W, which is along a
trough extending from 30N54W to 24N65W. Farther north, a surface
ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near
35N60W to northeast Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge
extends from 1028 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands to
25N45W. Gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted west of and along
this ridge, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are
evident south of this ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as
it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate
breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off
Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
Christensen

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

724
AXNT20 KNHC 110859
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical waves is off the coast of West Africa along 18W, S of
12N. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving westward
at around 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, S of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in
association to this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W
and extends SW to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W
to 03N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 06W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted from 04N and 06N between 45W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a
surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to
18.5N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over
the loop current near 25N86W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass showed fresh to strong SE winds east of the trough to the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer also indicated
moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the western Gulf, and
gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf where weak high pressure is
present. Seas are 4-6 ft between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula
and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the
northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least
Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas
will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland
and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off
eastern Honduras, under diffluent flow aloft. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also active along the coast of Belize.
Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along and
just west of the Windward Islands, between a couple of tropical
waves. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted over the
northwest Caribbean, and fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas
are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwest Caribbean west of 85W through at least Fri night,
between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America
and southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a
1016 mb low pressure area centered near 26N61W, which is along a
trough extending from 30N54W to 24N65W. Farther north, a surface
ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near
35N60W to northeast Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge
extends from 1028 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands to
25N45W. Gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted west of and along
this ridge, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are
evident south of this ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as
it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate
breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off
Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
Christensen

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

072
AXNT20 KNHC 111019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. Given
the abundant moisture already pooling into this area and ongoing
showers and thunderstorms, this pattern will support the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through
late Saturday. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8
inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize
and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall
of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and
eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible.
Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further
guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical waves is off the coast of West Africa along 18W, S of
12N. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving westward
at around 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, S of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in
association to this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W
and extends SW to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W
to 03N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 06W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted from 04N and 06N between 45W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a
surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to
18.5N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over
the loop current near 25N86W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass showed fresh to strong SE winds east of the trough to the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer also indicated
moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the western Gulf, and
gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf where weak high pressure is
present. Seas are 4-6 ft between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula
and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the
northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least
Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas
will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland
and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding across the Yucatan peninsula
and northern Belize through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off
eastern Honduras, under diffluent flow aloft. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also active along the coast of Belize.
Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along and
just west of the Windward Islands, between a couple of tropical
waves. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted over the
northwest Caribbean, and fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas
are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwest Caribbean west of 85W through at least Fri night,
between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America
and southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a
1016 mb low pressure area centered near 26N61W, which is along a
trough extending from 30N54W to 24N65W. Farther north, a surface
ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near
35N60W to northeast Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge
extends from 1028 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands to
25N45W. Gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted west of and along
this ridge, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are
evident south of this ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as
it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate
breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off
Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
Christensen

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

073
AXNT20 KNHC 111019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. Given
the abundant moisture already pooling into this area and ongoing
showers and thunderstorms, this pattern will support the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through
late Saturday. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8
inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize
and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall
of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and
eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible.
Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further
guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical waves is off the coast of West Africa along 18W, S of
12N. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 15N, moving west at
10 to 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving westward
at around 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, S of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in
association to this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W
and extends SW to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W
to 03N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N to 08N between 06W and 35W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted from 04N and 06N between 45W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a
surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to
18.5N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over
the loop current near 25N86W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass showed fresh to strong SE winds east of the trough to the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer also indicated
moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the western Gulf, and
gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf where weak high pressure is
present. Seas are 4-6 ft between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula
and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the
northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least
Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas
will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland
and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding across the Yucatan peninsula
and northern Belize through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off
eastern Honduras, under diffluent flow aloft. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also active along the coast of Belize.
Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along and
just west of the Windward Islands, between a couple of tropical
waves. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted over the
northwest Caribbean, and fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas
are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE
winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwest Caribbean west of 85W through at least Fri night,
between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America
and southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a
1016 mb low pressure area centered near 26N61W, which is along a
trough extending from 30N54W to 24N65W. Farther north, a surface
ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near
35N60W to northeast Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge
extends from 1028 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands to
25N45W. Gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted west of and along
this ridge, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are
evident south of this ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as
it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate
breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off
Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
Christensen

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

736
AXNT20 KNHC 111810
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to
12N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 47.5W from 05N
to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are
seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 05N to 08N.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with its axis
near 62W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave
from 10N to 12N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 11N
to 12.5N. Isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are ahead of
the wave from 13N to 14N between 63W and 65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.

A tropical wave was added to the 12Z analysis over the Yucatan
Peninsula along a position from 21.5N87W to 18N90W and to 13N92W
as suggested to some extent in long-term satellite imagery and
mildly in model guidance. This feature is one of the factors
contributing to the heavy rain event described above under the
Special Features section. Upper-level divergence from an an
upper-level low that is west of the Yucatan Peninsula is helping
to sustain clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and
Belize. Similar convection is noted from from 21.5N to 24N between
the western tip of Cuba and 89W. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before
the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Sat or on
Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N17W and extends southwestward to 08N21W and to 05N30W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N35W to 04N42W and to 05N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough
between 20W-23W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between
24W-26W, between 27W-30W and also between 34W-38W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 04N and
09N between 11W-18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Tropical Waves sections for information on
convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast as an upper-level
low is identified to be over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent
Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds across the basin, except for fresh
southeast winds over the central portions. Seas are in the 4 to 6
ft range between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas
coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas
from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through
at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds
and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure
moves inland and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Yucatan peninsula
and in northern Belize into Sat.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the western Caribbean is generally
allowing for fresh to strong southeast winds to exist in the
northwestern part of the sea. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft
in southeast swell. The gradient between the same high pressure
and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is maintaining
fresh to strong trades in the south-central section of the basin
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data
passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
just inland and along the coasts the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize.
This activity is in the wake of a tropical wave that is over the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 26N61W, with a trough extending south-southwestward to 23N63W and to 22N70W. Another trough
extends from the low to 29N60W while a stationary front is
anaylzed from 29N60W to 29N61W, where it transitions to a cold
front to northeast of the area at 31N47W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 28N between 53W and 58W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 22N
between 50W and 65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from
1025 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near 35N58W west-
southwestward to across northern Florida. Farther east, another
surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center near
the Azores Islands southwestward to 31N31W and continues to near
25N55W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light to
gentle winds west of and along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 5 ft
over these waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes
reveal mostly moderate to fresh northeast winds south of the
ridge axis, where seas are 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1016 mb low
centered near 26N61W will dissipate as it moves northeast of the
area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along
roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This
pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin,
except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

734
AXNT20 KNHC 111810
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to
12N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 47.5W from 05N
to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are
seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 05N to 08N.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with its axis
near 62W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave
from 10N to 12N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 11N
to 12.5N. Isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are ahead of
the wave from 13N to 14N between 63W and 65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.

A tropical wave was added to the 12Z analysis over the Yucatan
Peninsula along a position from 21.5N87W to 18N90W and to 13N92W
as suggested to some extent in long-term satellite imagery and
mildly in model guidance. This feature is one of the factors
contributing to the heavy rain event described above under the
Special Features section. Upper-level divergence from an an
upper-level low that is west of the Yucatan Peninsula is helping
to sustain clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and
Belize. Similar convection is noted from from 21.5N to 24N between
the western tip of Cuba and 89W. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before
the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Sat or on
Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N17W and extends southwestward to 08N21W and to 05N30W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N35W to 04N42W and to 05N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough
between 20W-23W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between
24W-26W, between 27W-30W and also between 34W-38W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 04N and
09N between 11W-18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Tropical Waves sections for information on
convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast as an upper-level
low is identified to be over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent
Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds across the basin, except for fresh
southeast winds over the central portions. Seas are in the 4 to 6
ft range between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas
coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas
from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through
at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds
and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure
moves inland and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Yucatan peninsula
and in northern Belize into Sat.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the western Caribbean is generally
allowing for fresh to strong southeast winds to exist in the
northwestern part of the sea. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft
in southeast swell. The gradient between the same high pressure
and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is maintaining
fresh to strong trades in the south-central section of the basin
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data
passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
just inland and along the coasts the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize.
This activity is in the wake of a tropical wave that is over the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 26N61W, with a trough extending south-southwestward to 23N63W and to 22N70W. Another trough
extends from the low to 29N60W while a stationary front is
anaylzed from 29N60W to 29N61W, where it transitions to a cold
front to northeast of the area at 31N47W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 28N between 53W and 58W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 22N
between 50W and 65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from
1025 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near 35N58W west-
southwestward to across northern Florida. Farther east, another
surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center near
the Azores Islands southwestward to 31N31W and continues to near
25N55W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light to
gentle winds west of and along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 5 ft
over these waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes
reveal mostly moderate to fresh northeast winds south of the
ridge axis, where seas are 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1016 mb low
centered near 26N61W will dissipate as it moves northeast of the
area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along
roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This
pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin,
except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

587
AXNT20 KNHC 111813
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to
12N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 47.5W from 05N
to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are
seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 05N to 08N.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with its axis
near 62W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave
from 10N to 12N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 11N
to 12.5N. Isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are ahead of
the wave from 13N to 14N between 63W and 65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.

A tropical wave was added to the 12Z analysis over the Yucatan
Peninsula along a position from 21.5N87W to 18N90W and to 13N92W
as suggested to some extent in long-term satellite imagery and
mildly in model guidance. This feature is one of the factors
contributing to the heavy rain event described above under the
Special Features section. Upper-level divergence from an upper-level
low that is west of the Yucatan Peninsula is helping to sustain
clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over
the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Similar
convection is noted from from 21.5N to 24N between the western tip
of Cuba and 89W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only
marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland
over eastern Mexico late Sat or on Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N17W and extends southwestward to 08N21W and to 05N30W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N35W to 04N42W and to 05N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough
between 20W-23W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between
24W-26W, between 27W-30W and also between 34W-38W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 04N and
09N between 11W-18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Tropical Waves sections for information on
convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast as an upper-level
low is identified to be over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent
Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds across the basin, except for fresh
southeast winds over the central portions. Seas are in the 4 to 6
ft range between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas
coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western
Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week.
Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico
and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of
Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move
northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast
Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure
and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume
of fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas
from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through
at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds
and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure
moves inland and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Yucatan peninsula
and in northern Belize into Sat.

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the western Caribbean is generally
allowing for fresh to strong southeast winds to exist in the
northwestern part of the sea. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft
in southeast swell. The gradient between the same high pressure
and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is maintaining
fresh to strong trades in the south-central section of the basin
along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data
passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
just inland and along the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula and
Belize. This activity is to the east of a tropical wave that is over
the Yucatan Peninsula.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 26N61W, with a trough extending south-southwestward to 23N63W and to 22N70W. Another trough
extends from the low to 29N60W while a stationary front is
anaylzed from 29N60W to 29N61W, where it transitions to a cold
front to northeast of the area at 31N47W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 28N between 53W and 58W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 22N
between 50W and 65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from
1025 mb high pressure center that is northeast of Bermuda near
35N58W west-southwestward to across northern Florida. Farther east,
another surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center
near the Azores Islands southwestward to 31N31W and continues to
near 25N55W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light
to gentle winds west of and along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 5 ft
over these waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes reveal
mostly moderate to fresh northeast winds south of the ridge axis,
where seas are 6 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1016 mb low
centered near 26N61W will dissipate as it moves northeast of the
area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along
roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This
pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin,
except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

303
AXNT20 KNHC 112040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W S of 15N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 51W S of 15N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen within
60 nm either side of the axis from 04N to 07N.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W S of
16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 15N between 60W and 65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 68W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 24N between 82W and
91W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
13N17W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast. Low pressure
prevails across Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds W of 90W,
as well as S of 21N and E of 90W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft,
prevail over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure is expected to develop over the
northeastern Gulf on Fri, then persist through Tue. Farther south,
a broad trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula should
gradually move into the the Bay of Campeche tonight and Fri. The
low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of
Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The
gradient between these features will support a plume of fresh to
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwestern
Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat
night. The trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and
weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
troughing over the Yucatan peninsula associated with a tropical
wave is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over these waters. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Colombia and
Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail over this area. Moderate
to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean west of 85W, including the Gulf of
Honduras through Sat night, between the ridge and low pressure
over northern Central America and southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N44W to a 1016 mb low centered
near 30N62W. Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these
features. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the front, mainly
N of 28N between 40W and 45W. High pressure prevails elsewhere
over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of
20N as well as N of 20N and E of 30W. Mainly light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range W of 60W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low will open up into a trough,
while the front will weaken through Fri. On Sat, a ridge will
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate
breezes across the western Atlantic, except moderate to fresh
winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

386
AXNT20 KNHC 112040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W S of 15N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 51W S of 15N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are seen within
60 nm either side of the axis from 04N to 07N.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W S of
16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted S of 15N between 60W and 65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 68W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 24N between 82W and
91W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive for development before the system moves inland over
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
13N17W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western
Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast. Low pressure
prevails across Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds W of 90W,
as well as S of 21N and E of 90W. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft,
prevail over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure is expected to develop over the
northeastern Gulf on Fri, then persist through Tue. Farther south,
a broad trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula should
gradually move into the the Bay of Campeche tonight and Fri. The
low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of
Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The
gradient between these features will support a plume of fresh to
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwestern
Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat
night. The trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and
weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and
troughing over the Yucatan peninsula associated with a tropical
wave is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over these waters. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Colombia and
Venezuela is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Seas of 5-8 ft prevail over this area. Moderate
to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will
support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week,
with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh
to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean west of 85W, including the Gulf of
Honduras through Sat night, between the ridge and low pressure
over northern Central America and southern Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N44W to a 1016 mb low centered
near 30N62W. Isolated convection is in the vicinity of these
features. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead of the front, mainly
N of 28N between 40W and 45W. High pressure prevails elsewhere
over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of
20N as well as N of 20N and E of 30W. Mainly light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas are in
the 3-4 ft range W of 60W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low will open up into a trough,
while the front will weaken through Fri. On Sat, a ridge will
extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through
early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate
breezes across the western Atlantic, except moderate to fresh
winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

337
AXNT20 KNHC 120455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W, S of 15N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 52W, S of 15N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are active from
05N to 06N between 51W and 53W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, S of
16N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is active over the Caribbean, but scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted over central Venezuela near 08N65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave over the Caribbean,
but scattered convection is noted over Venezuela near 11N69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
16N16W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E
to SE winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. These
winds are between the western extension of the Atlantic ridge over
the eastern Gulf, and a trough reaching from the south-central
Gulf, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into northern Central
America. Seas are estimated to be 5-6 ft in this area. Associated
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bay of
Campeche. The pattern is also supporting moderate SE winds
elsewhere across the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle
southerly breezes over the eastern Gulf with 1-3 ft breezes.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern
Gulf through Tue. Farther south, broad trough of low pressure
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the
southern Gulf will shift northwestward through the weekend, and
move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This pattern will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas
shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of
Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after
the low pressure moves inland and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong SE
winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with near-
gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These winds
are between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface
trough over northern Central America. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in
this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely
across the northwest Caribbean, reaching eastward to the Windward
Passage. The pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across
the south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds
pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Moderate E
winds persist elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place north of region through early next week to support a large
area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
across the central Caribbean, as a pair of tropical waves move
westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will
also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 83W,
including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel
and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few showers and thunderstorms remain active near 28N58W, on the
eastern end of a trough extending to 30N50W. A broad ridge extends
from the Azores to south of the trough near 24N50W, then across
Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to
fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 22N and west
of 35W, and mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift NE and out of
the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 23N and gentle
anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will
develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening
through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across waters near the Greater Antilles.

$$
Christensen

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

431
AXNT20 KNHC 120455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section
of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest
rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period,
primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican
state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is
possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as
well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local
meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W, S of 15N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 52W, S of 15N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are active from
05N to 06N between 51W and 53W.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, S of
16N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is active over the Caribbean, but scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted over central Venezuela near 08N65W.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W,
moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring at the present time with this wave over the Caribbean,
but scattered convection is noted over Venezuela near 11N69W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
16N16W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W
and 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E
to SE winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. These
winds are between the western extension of the Atlantic ridge over
the eastern Gulf, and a trough reaching from the south-central
Gulf, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into northern Central
America. Seas are estimated to be 5-6 ft in this area. Associated
scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bay of
Campeche. The pattern is also supporting moderate SE winds
elsewhere across the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle
southerly breezes over the eastern Gulf with 1-3 ft breezes.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern
Gulf through Tue. Farther south, broad trough of low pressure
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the
southern Gulf will shift northwestward through the weekend, and
move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This pattern will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas
shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of
Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after
the low pressure moves inland and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong SE
winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with near-
gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These winds
are between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface
trough over northern Central America. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in
this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely
across the northwest Caribbean, reaching eastward to the Windward
Passage. The pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across
the south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds
pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Moderate E
winds persist elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place north of region through early next week to support a large
area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas
across the central Caribbean, as a pair of tropical waves move
westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will
also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 83W,
including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel
and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few showers and thunderstorms remain active near 28N58W, on the
eastern end of a trough extending to 30N50W. A broad ridge extends
from the Azores to south of the trough near 24N50W, then across
Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to
fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 22N and west
of 35W, and mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift NE and out of
the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 23N and gentle
anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will
develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening
through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across waters near the Greater Antilles.

$$
Christensen

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

320
AXNT20 KNHC 121035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern Bay of
Campeche and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. The heaviest
rainfall accumulations may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this
48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part
of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4
inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan
states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to
local meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 26W-27W, S of 16N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in
the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been added to the 06Z
analysis along 46W, S of 15N, moving westward near 15 kt. The wave
axis is clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby
convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W-57W, S of
12N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W, S of
17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers prevail
between the wave axis and 61W, to the south of 15N.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 73W-74W,
south of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant
convection is occurring at the present time near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
14N17W and extends southwestward to 08N25W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ, continuing on to the coast of Brazil near 05.5N53W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is across the
waters of W Africa from 02N to 12N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 11.5N between
19W and 32W, from 05N to 07.5N between 36W and 41W, and from 05.5N
to 07N between 51W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the eastern Bay of Campeche
northeastward to the offshore waters of the Yucatan Peninsula,
and extends into the middle atmosphere. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed fresh to strong E to SE winds across the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to 24N, and east of the
surface trough. This feature is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the basin S of 25N between the
Yucatan Channel and 93.5W. Weak high pressure across the western
Atlantic extends a ridge westward across Florida and into the NE
Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the
ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft across this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate SE winds prevail across
the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle southerly winds
over the eastern Gulf and 2-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern
Gulf through Tue. Farther south, a broad trough of low pressure
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the
southern Gulf will shift slowly northwestward through the
weekend, and move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This
pattern will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to
rough seas shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the
coast of Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish Mon and Tue after
the low pressure moves inland and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

1019 mb high pressure near 29N69W extends a ridge westward across
Florida and the NE Gulf of America. Two tropical waves are moving
quickly across the central Caribbean overnight, south of the
ridge. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
SE winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with
near- gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These
winds are occurring between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast,
and a surface trough over northern Central America. Seas are
likely 5-8 ft in this area. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring across the northwest Caribbean W of
81W. This pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across the
south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing
off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7-9
ft. Moderate E winds prevail elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place north of region through early next week to support a
large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean through Sun, as a pair of
tropical waves move westward across the region. Expect highest
winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds
and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean,
to the W of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat
evening. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions
of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain active N of
26N between 50W and 59W, associated with a weak area of low
pressure near 29.5N58.5W, with an lingering frontal trough
extending eastward to 31N41W. A broad ridge extends from the
Azores to south of the trough near 24N55W. 1019 mb high pressure
is centered W of the low pressure near 29N69W and extends a weak
ridge westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern
is support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas
south of 22N and between 35W and 60W, and moderate E to SE winds @
of 22N between 60W and 80W. Mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge
will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak
low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the
forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 22N and gentle
anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will
develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening
through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

319
AXNT20 KNHC 121035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize:
Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central
America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The
combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper
low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a
tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant
deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential
for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat.
Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern Bay of
Campeche and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. The heaviest
rainfall accumulations may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this
48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part
of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4
inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan
states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to
local meteorological agencies for further guidance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 26W-27W, S of 16N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in
the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been added to the 06Z
analysis along 46W, S of 15N, moving westward near 15 kt. The wave
axis is clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby
convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W-57W, S of
12N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W, S of
17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers prevail
between the wave axis and 61W, to the south of 15N.

Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 73W-74W,
south of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant
convection is occurring at the present time near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
14N17W and extends southwestward to 08N25W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ, continuing on to the coast of Brazil near 05.5N53W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is across the
waters of W Africa from 02N to 12N E of 18W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 11.5N between
19W and 32W, from 05N to 07.5N between 36W and 41W, and from 05.5N
to 07N between 51W and 54W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the eastern Bay of Campeche
northeastward to the offshore waters of the Yucatan Peninsula,
and extends into the middle atmosphere. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed fresh to strong E to SE winds across the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to 24N, and east of the
surface trough. This feature is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the basin S of 25N between the
Yucatan Channel and 93.5W. Weak high pressure across the western
Atlantic extends a ridge westward across Florida and into the NE
Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the
ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft across this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate SE winds prevail across
the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle southerly winds
over the eastern Gulf and 2-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern
Gulf through Tue. Farther south, a broad trough of low pressure
extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the
southern Gulf will shift slowly northwestward through the
weekend, and move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This
pattern will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to
rough seas shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the
coast of Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish Mon and Tue after
the low pressure moves inland and weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

1019 mb high pressure near 29N69W extends a ridge westward across
Florida and the NE Gulf of America. Two tropical waves are moving
quickly across the central Caribbean overnight, south of the
ridge. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong
SE winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with
near- gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These
winds are occurring between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast,
and a surface trough over northern Central America. Seas are
likely 5-8 ft in this area. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring across the northwest Caribbean W of
81W. This pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across the
south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing
off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7-9
ft. Moderate E winds prevail elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place north of region through early next week to support a
large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean through Sun, as a pair of
tropical waves move westward across the region. Expect highest
winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds
and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean,
to the W of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat
evening. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions
of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain active N of
26N between 50W and 59W, associated with a weak area of low
pressure near 29.5N58.5W, with an lingering frontal trough
extending eastward to 31N41W. A broad ridge extends from the
Azores to south of the trough near 24N55W. 1019 mb high pressure
is centered W of the low pressure near 29N69W and extends a weak
ridge westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern
is support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas
south of 22N and between 35W and 60W, and moderate E to SE winds @
of 22N between 60W and 80W. Mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge
will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak
low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the
forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 22N and gentle
anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will
develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening
through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

771
AXNT20 KNHC 121754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 03N to 16N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 05N
to 19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The wave axis is
clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby
convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W south of
16N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W south
of 18N, moving westward near 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible
near its axis. This wave is likely to merge with the one ahead
of it in the near future.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 76W south
of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection
is presently occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N12W, and extends southwestward to 07N20W and to 06N25W, then
ITCZ to 06N29W. It resumes at 06N39W to 06N31W and to inland
French Guiana at 04N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection
within 240 nm northwest of the trough between 16W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
38W-46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche, with a
1007 mb low analyzed near 20N94W. A trough extends from the low
to 22N96W, and another trough extends from the low to inland
Mexico just south of Veracruz and continues to inland Mexico near
19N99W. Increasing moderate to strong convection is seen from 19N
to 22N between 92W and 96W. Moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds are within about 300 nm northeast of the low along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic has
a ridge axis that extends westward across Florida and into the NE
Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the
ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft over this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate southeast winds
prevail across the western Gulf along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Mostly gentle southerly winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas
of 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to be
only marginally conducive for development of the broad area
of low pressure before it moves inland over eastern Mexico late
Sat or Sun. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary, but
there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive
for any development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to
strong southeast winds along with moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively weak high pressure is over the western Atlantic while
a pair of tropical waves are moving rather quickly across the
central Caribbean. Latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate fresh to strong southeast winds across the far northwest
Caribbean west of about 80W. These winds are occurring between
the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over
northern Central America. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over this part of
the basin. This pattern is also supporting fresh to locally
strong trades over the south-central and southeastern portions of
the basin, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and
northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh
trades are elsewhere along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over
the northwest part of the sea from 18N to 21N between 82W and 87W,
and over the eastern portion of Hispaniola.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will generally remain
in place through early next week, with its associated gradient
supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun,
as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong southeast winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean, mainly west of about 83W, including the
Gulf of Honduras through Sat evening. Expect active showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent
Yucatan waters through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1020 mb over the western Atlantic is near
27.5N68W, a with a broad ridge stretching westward toward Florida.
A weak trough extends from near 23N69W to the southeastern Bahamas
and to the northeast tip of Cuba. No significant convection is
near the trough. To the northeast, a stationary front enters the
area through 31N39W and continues to 29N45W, where it begins to
dissipate to 29N49W, then continues as a trough to 29N52.5W and
to a weak 1019 mb low near 30N57W. A trough extends from the low
to near 28N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 27N to
29N between 53W and 56W, and along a line from 27N57W to 25N62W.
An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is southeast of
a broad mid to uppe-level trough roughly from 19N to 24N between
62W and 69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of
26N between 72W and 79W.

Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 31N31W. High
pressure covers the area north of 18N between 18W and 50W. The
related pressure gradient is generally maintaining moderate to
fresh trades south of about 21N and between 34W and 61W. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Mostly gentle trades along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 21N and east of 55W while
light to gentle south to southwest winds and low seas of 2 to 4
ft are north of 21N and west of 55W. Satellite scatterometer data
passes detected these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge
will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak
low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the
forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate east to southeast trades south of 22N and
gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh southwest
winds will develop across the northwest forecast waters north
of 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal
system moves across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

833
AXNT20 KNHC 121754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 03N to 16N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 05N
to 19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The wave axis is
clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby
convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W south of
16N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W south
of 18N, moving westward near 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible
near its axis. This wave is likely to merge with the one ahead
of it in the near future.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 76W south
of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection
is presently occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near
15N12W, and extends southwestward to 07N20W and to 06N25W, then
ITCZ to 06N29W. It resumes at 06N39W to 06N31W and to inland
French Guiana at 04N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection
within 240 nm northwest of the trough between 16W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
38W-46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche, with a
1007 mb low analyzed near 20N94W. A trough extends from the low
to 22N96W, and another trough extends from the low to inland
Mexico just south of Veracruz and continues to inland Mexico near
19N99W. Increasing moderate to strong convection is seen from 19N
to 22N between 92W and 96W. Moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds are within about 300 nm northeast of the low along with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic has
a ridge axis that extends westward across Florida and into the NE
Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the
ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft over this
area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate southeast winds
prevail across the western Gulf along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Mostly gentle southerly winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas
of 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to be
only marginally conducive for development of the broad area
of low pressure before it moves inland over eastern Mexico late
Sat or Sun. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary, but
there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive
for any development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to
strong southeast winds along with moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively weak high pressure is over the western Atlantic while
a pair of tropical waves are moving rather quickly across the
central Caribbean. Latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate fresh to strong southeast winds across the far northwest
Caribbean west of about 80W. These winds are occurring between
the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over
northern Central America. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over this part of
the basin. This pattern is also supporting fresh to locally
strong trades over the south-central and southeastern portions of
the basin, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and
northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh
trades are elsewhere along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over
the northwest part of the sea from 18N to 21N between 82W and 87W,
and over the eastern portion of Hispaniola.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will generally remain
in place through early next week, with its associated gradient
supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun,
as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong southeast winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean, mainly west of about 83W, including the
Gulf of Honduras through Sat evening. Expect active showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent
Yucatan waters through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1020 mb over the western Atlantic is near
27.5N68W, a with a broad ridge stretching westward toward Florida.
A weak trough extends from near 23N69W to the southeastern Bahamas
and to the northeast tip of Cuba. No significant convection is
near the trough. To the northeast, a stationary front enters the
area through 31N39W and continues to 29N45W, where it begins to
dissipate to 29N49W, then continues as a trough to 29N52.5W and
to a weak 1019 mb low near 30N57W. A trough extends from the low
to near 28N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 27N to
29N between 53W and 56W, and along a line from 27N57W to 25N62W.
An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is southeast of
a broad mid to uppe-level trough roughly from 19N to 24N between
62W and 69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of
26N between 72W and 79W.

Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 31N31W. High
pressure covers the area north of 18N between 18W and 50W. The
related pressure gradient is generally maintaining moderate to
fresh trades south of about 21N and between 34W and 61W. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Mostly gentle trades along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 21N and east of 55W while
light to gentle south to southwest winds and low seas of 2 to 4
ft are north of 21N and west of 55W. Satellite scatterometer data
passes detected these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge
will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak
low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the
forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to
reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern
will support moderate east to southeast trades south of 22N and
gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh southwest
winds will develop across the northwest forecast waters north
of 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal
system moves across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

803
AXNT20 KNHC 122112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 30W S of 15N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W S of 16N.
It is moving westward near 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 60W south of 16N. It is moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

The two previous waves in the Caribbean have merged. The axis of
the merged tropical wave is near 77W south of 18N, moving
westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is presently
occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
and extends southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W
to 06N29W. It resumes near 06N31W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 11W and
23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 36W and 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is
centered over the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and the low is supporting fresh to strong winds
over the waters S of 25N and W of 87W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft
range over these waters. Light winds, and seas of 2 ft, are in
the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
has increased a little near a broad area of low pressure located
over the Bay of Campeche near 20.5N95W. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development
before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday
or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal
boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be
marginally conducive for any development. The pressure gradient
between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas
through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters W of 85W, as well as
over the waters S of 15N between 66W and 75W. Seas over these
waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas
of 3-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through Sun.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 85W, including the Gulf of
Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent
Yucatan waters through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 24N69W to 20N75W. Scattered
convection is SE of the trough. The remainder of the discussion
waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024
mb high near 33N45W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas,
generally prevail over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate
E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow
elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW
waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

802
AXNT20 KNHC 122112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 30W S of 15N,
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W S of 16N.
It is moving westward near 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 60W south of 16N. It is moving
westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

The two previous waves in the Caribbean have merged. The axis of
the merged tropical wave is near 77W south of 18N, moving
westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is presently
occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W
and extends southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W
to 06N29W. It resumes near 06N31W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 11W and
23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 36W and 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is
centered over the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and the low is supporting fresh to strong winds
over the waters S of 25N and W of 87W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft
range over these waters. Light winds, and seas of 2 ft, are in
the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
has increased a little near a broad area of low pressure located
over the Bay of Campeche near 20.5N95W. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development
before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday
or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal
boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be
marginally conducive for any development. The pressure gradient
between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas
through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters W of 85W, as well as
over the waters S of 15N between 66W and 75W. Seas over these
waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas
of 3-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to
rough seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through Sun.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the
northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 85W, including the Gulf of
Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent
Yucatan waters through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 24N69W to 20N75W. Scattered
convection is SE of the trough. The remainder of the discussion
waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024
mb high near 33N45W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas,
generally prevail over the discussion waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate
E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow
elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW
waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

918
AXNT20 KNHC 130359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic
along 18W, south of 14N, based on satellite imagery, total
precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
south of 13N and east of 27W.

Another eastern tropical wave is along 32W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near
the trough axis.

The tropical wave previously analyzed in the eastern Caribbean has
dissipated based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water
and wave diagnostic data.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N32W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 00N50W. A few showers are seen
near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of 25N
and west of 90W. The tight pressure gradient between this low and
a 1017 mb ridge in the NE Gulf sustain fresh to near gale-force SE
winds and moderate to locally rough seas south of 26N and west of
88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous squalls and thunderstorm
continue tonight across the SW Gulf, to the NE of a broad area of
low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W and
extending to offshore of Tampico. The low pressure system will
shift NW through the weekend and move inland over northeastern
Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over
the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting
with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diurnal heating and divergence aloft are sustaining a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Cuba, Hispaniola and
nearby waters. The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is also
producing some shower activity in the Gulf of Honduras. The
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the
Caribbean waters, supporting fresh to near gale-force easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and SE
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward along 28.5N
and across Florida and the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will
generally remain in place through early next week to support a
large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean through Sun. Expect highest
winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds
and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean,
to the W of 845W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat
night. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N38W to 28N44W, followed by a
surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found north of 14N and
east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from the
central Atlantic along 25N westward across Florida along 28.5N
and across the NE Gulf of America, and will generally remain in
place through early next week. Weak low pressure near 31N56W,
accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, is
shifting NE and out of the forecast waters, and will allow the
ridge to reorganize across the area through early next week. This
pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a
gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds
will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun
evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE
U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Delgado

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

051
AXNT20 KNHC 130359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic
along 18W, south of 14N, based on satellite imagery, total
precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
south of 13N and east of 27W.

Another eastern tropical wave is along 32W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near
the trough axis.

The tropical wave previously analyzed in the eastern Caribbean has
dissipated based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water
and wave diagnostic data.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N32W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 00N50W. A few showers are seen
near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of 25N
and west of 90W. The tight pressure gradient between this low and
a 1017 mb ridge in the NE Gulf sustain fresh to near gale-force SE
winds and moderate to locally rough seas south of 26N and west of
88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous squalls and thunderstorm
continue tonight across the SW Gulf, to the NE of a broad area of
low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W and
extending to offshore of Tampico. The low pressure system will
shift NW through the weekend and move inland over northeastern
Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over
the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting
with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diurnal heating and divergence aloft are sustaining a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Cuba, Hispaniola and
nearby waters. The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is also
producing some shower activity in the Gulf of Honduras. The
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the
Caribbean waters, supporting fresh to near gale-force easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and SE
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward along 28.5N
and across Florida and the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will
generally remain in place through early next week to support a
large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean through Sun. Expect highest
winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds
and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean,
to the W of 845W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat
night. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N38W to 28N44W, followed by a
surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found north of 14N and
east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from the
central Atlantic along 25N westward across Florida along 28.5N
and across the NE Gulf of America, and will generally remain in
place through early next week. Weak low pressure near 31N56W,
accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, is
shifting NE and out of the forecast waters, and will allow the
ridge to reorganize across the area through early next week. This
pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a
gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds
will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun
evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE
U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Delgado

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

705
AXNT20 KNHC 131008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south
of 15N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N between
13N and 29W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W-53W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near
the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W-79W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring
near this wave along the coast of Panama, while scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen along the coast and coastal waters
of Colombia, in the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05.5N33W, then resumes from
04.5N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted near Africa from 01N to 05.5N E of
12W. Elsewhere, only a few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure extending from low to mid levels of
the atmosphere continues across the SW Gulf this morning, from the
central Bay of Campeche to offshore of NE Mexico, and is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially
south of 25N and west of 91W. Satellite imagery and local upper
air data show strong SE low level winds to 35 kt moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula and across the eastern side of this circulation.
At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between this low and the
Atlantic ridge extending into the NE Gulf sustain fresh to strong SE
winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 9 ft south of 26N and
west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure system will shift NW through
the weekend and move inland over northeastern Mexico late Saturday
or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary. The
pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over
the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to
rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into
the Gulf Tue and Wed to promote moderate to fresh southerly winds
basin-wide.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few clusters of moderate convection continue across the NW
Caribbean this morning, N of 18N to the south coast of Cuba, and
into the approach to the Windward Passage, as divergence aloft
sustains this activity. Strong convection across interior portions
of the Gulf of Honduras extends from similar activity associated
with the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. The subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic extends N of the area and across
Florida along about 27N, and supports fresh to near gale- force
easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and
SE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through Sun to support a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of
Honduras and northwestern Caribbean W of 85W through Sat night.
The ridge will reorganize along 60W Sun night through Mon then
shift slowly NE through midweek, leading to a slight decrease in
wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 28.5N43W, followed by a
surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida,
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas
south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate seas are found north of 14N an2d east of 25W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally
remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along
about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through
Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of
22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW
winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun
evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the
SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

704
AXNT20 KNHC 131008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south
of 15N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N between
13N and 29W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W-53W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near
the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W-79W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring
near this wave along the coast of Panama, while scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen along the coast and coastal waters
of Colombia, in the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05.5N33W, then resumes from
04.5N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted near Africa from 01N to 05.5N E of
12W. Elsewhere, only a few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure extending from low to mid levels of
the atmosphere continues across the SW Gulf this morning, from the
central Bay of Campeche to offshore of NE Mexico, and is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially
south of 25N and west of 91W. Satellite imagery and local upper
air data show strong SE low level winds to 35 kt moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula and across the eastern side of this circulation.
At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between this low and the
Atlantic ridge extending into the NE Gulf sustain fresh to strong SE
winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 9 ft south of 26N and
west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure system will shift NW through
the weekend and move inland over northeastern Mexico late Saturday
or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary. The
pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over
the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to
rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into
the Gulf Tue and Wed to promote moderate to fresh southerly winds
basin-wide.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few clusters of moderate convection continue across the NW
Caribbean this morning, N of 18N to the south coast of Cuba, and
into the approach to the Windward Passage, as divergence aloft
sustains this activity. Strong convection across interior portions
of the Gulf of Honduras extends from similar activity associated
with the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. The subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic extends N of the area and across
Florida along about 27N, and supports fresh to near gale- force
easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and
SE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through Sun to support a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of
Honduras and northwestern Caribbean W of 85W through Sat night.
The ridge will reorganize along 60W Sun night through Mon then
shift slowly NE through midweek, leading to a slight decrease in
wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 28.5N43W, followed by a
surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida,
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas
south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate seas are found north of 14N an2d east of 25W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally
remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along
about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through
Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of
22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW
winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun
evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the
SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

727
AXNT20 KNHC 131805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W from
is in the far eastern Atlantic from 02N to 16N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 240 nm either side of the wave from 04N to 06N.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
02N to 16N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated, mostly
light showers are from 07N to 10N between 32W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 53W south of
19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection
is currently occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W south of
18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the axis
within 30 nm of 15N79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W
where it transitions to the ITCZ extends to 05N35W. It resumes at
05N36W to the Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 02N to 06N between 05W-16W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
26W-30W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A persistent broad area of low pressure present is over the
southwestern Gulf just offshore Mexico. Deep convection seen
during the morning over the southwestern Gulf has diminished.
Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate-type convection
from 19N to 23N between 92W and 95W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere from 19N to 25N west of 91W.
At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between the low pressure
area and the Atlantic ridge that extending westward into the
north-central Gulf is generally maintaining fresh to strong
southeast winds along with moderate to locally rough seas to
around 9 ft south of 26N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned broad area of low pressure
will move inland northeastern Mexico by early Sun. The system
could re-emerge over the NW Gulf on Tue or Wed while interacting
with a frontal boundary, however, conditions there are also
expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The
pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over
the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to
rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into
the Gulf Tue and Wed, with the associated pressure gradient
leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds basin-wide.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward
near 27N to across Florida. The related pressure gradient is
generally allowing for fresh to near gale-force trade winds along
with moderate in the central and southeastern portions of the
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras as seen in the latest scatterometer
data passes. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate
seas are elsewhere, except for lighter trades winds of gentle
speeds over the waters between Cuba and 20N west of about 75W.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 range with these winds. Moderate or
lighter winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere
across the basin.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of 18N between
southwestern Haiti and 84W, including the approach to the
Windward Passage, as divergence aloft sustains this activity.
Strong convection across interior portions of the Gulf of Honduras
and over southern Belize is along the southeast periphery of the
area of broad low pressure that is in the southwestern Gulf of
America.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through Sun, with its related pressure gradient allowing for
a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas
off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong southeast winds and
rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of Honduras and
northwestern Caribbean west of 85W through tonight. The ridge
north of the area will reorganize Sun night through Mon then shift
slowly northeastward through midweek, leading to a slight
decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N36W to 29N41W, then dissipating
to 29N43W and trough to 29N47W and to near 31N52W. Isolated
rather weak showers are seen from 29N to 30N between 46W and 49W.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida, and that is
anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N30W and a 1022 mb high near
26N58W, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 21N
west of 35W along with mostly moderate seas. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas exist north of about 15N
and east of 22W while moderate northeast winds are from 12N
to 25N between 22W and 35W. Seas are in the moderate range are
in these areas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally
remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along
about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through
Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of
22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh
southwest winds will develop across the northwest waters north of
about 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue as a weak
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters
near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

744
AXNT20 KNHC 131805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W from
is in the far eastern Atlantic from 02N to 16N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 240 nm either side of the wave from 04N to 06N.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from
02N to 16N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated, mostly
light showers are from 07N to 10N between 32W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 53W south of
19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection
is currently occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W south of
18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the axis
within 30 nm of 15N79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W
where it transitions to the ITCZ extends to 05N35W. It resumes at
05N36W to the Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 02N to 06N between 05W-16W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
26W-30W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A persistent broad area of low pressure present is over the
southwestern Gulf just offshore Mexico. Deep convection seen
during the morning over the southwestern Gulf has diminished.
Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate-type convection
from 19N to 23N between 92W and 95W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere from 19N to 25N west of 91W.
At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between the low pressure
area and the Atlantic ridge that extending westward into the
north-central Gulf is generally maintaining fresh to strong
southeast winds along with moderate to locally rough seas to
around 9 ft south of 26N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned broad area of low pressure
will move inland northeastern Mexico by early Sun. The system
could re-emerge over the NW Gulf on Tue or Wed while interacting
with a frontal boundary, however, conditions there are also
expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The
pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over
the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to
rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into
the Gulf Tue and Wed, with the associated pressure gradient
leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds basin-wide.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward
near 27N to across Florida. The related pressure gradient is
generally allowing for fresh to near gale-force trade winds along
with moderate in the central and southeastern portions of the
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras as seen in the latest scatterometer
data passes. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate
seas are elsewhere, except for lighter trades winds of gentle
speeds over the waters between Cuba and 20N west of about 75W.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 range with these winds. Moderate or
lighter winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere
across the basin.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of 18N between
southwestern Haiti and 84W, including the approach to the
Windward Passage, as divergence aloft sustains this activity.
Strong convection across interior portions of the Gulf of Honduras
and over southern Belize is along the southeast periphery of the
area of broad low pressure that is in the southwestern Gulf of
America.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through Sun, with its related pressure gradient allowing for
a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas
off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong southeast winds and
rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of Honduras and
northwestern Caribbean west of 85W through tonight. The ridge
north of the area will reorganize Sun night through Mon then shift
slowly northeastward through midweek, leading to a slight
decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N36W to 29N41W, then dissipating
to 29N43W and trough to 29N47W and to near 31N52W. Isolated
rather weak showers are seen from 29N to 30N between 46W and 49W.
The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida, and that is
anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N30W and a 1022 mb high near
26N58W, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 21N
west of 35W along with mostly moderate seas. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas exist north of about 15N
and east of 22W while moderate northeast winds are from 12N
to 25N between 22W and 35W. Seas are in the moderate range are
in these areas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally
remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along
about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through
Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of
22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh
southwest winds will develop across the northwest waters north of
about 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue as a weak
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters
near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

398
AXNT20 KNHC 132039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 21/22W
S of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W from
02N to 16N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant
convection is currently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 54W south of
19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection
is currently occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80/81W south
of 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Most convection with this wave
is in the eastern North Pacific waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N17W and
continues southwestward to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W
to 05N34W. It resumes from 04N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between
02W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A persistent broad area of low pressure present is over the
southwestern Gulf just offshore Mexico. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm NE of the low. A
1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds NE of
the low. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range over the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the area of low
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun night. The
Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu,
and in combination with lower pressure over South Texas and
northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds
over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-10 ft, prevail over the
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are
over the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will prevail N of the area through Sun
to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect
highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to
fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
nightly through Thu. The ridge north of the area will reorganize
Sun night through Mon then shift slowly NE through midweek,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the discussion waters, anchored by a
1022 mb high centered near 25N58W and another 1026 mb high
centered near 31N30W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of
the high centers. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 20N.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 20N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
range S of 20N, and 3-5 ft N of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the area will
generally remain in place through Sun. The ridge will reorganize
Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through Wed. This
pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a
gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds
will briefly develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W
late Sun into Sun night, as a weak frontal system moves through
the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through
late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

396
AXNT20 KNHC 132039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 21/22W
S of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W from
02N to 16N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant
convection is currently occurring with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 54W south of
19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection
is currently occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80/81W south
of 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Most convection with this wave
is in the eastern North Pacific waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N17W and
continues southwestward to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W
to 05N34W. It resumes from 04N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between
02W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A persistent broad area of low pressure present is over the
southwestern Gulf just offshore Mexico. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm NE of the low. A
1019 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds NE of
the low. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range over the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the area of low
pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to
strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun night. The
Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu,
and in combination with lower pressure over South Texas and
northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds
over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-10 ft, prevail over the
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are
over the remainder of the Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will prevail N of the area through Sun
to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect
highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to
fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
nightly through Thu. The ridge north of the area will reorganize
Sun night through Mon then shift slowly NE through midweek,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure prevails across the discussion waters, anchored by a
1022 mb high centered near 25N58W and another 1026 mb high
centered near 31N30W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of
the high centers. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 20N.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 20N. Seas are in the 5-7 ft
range S of 20N, and 3-5 ft N of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the area will
generally remain in place through Sun. The ridge will reorganize
Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through Wed. This
pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a
gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds
will briefly develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W
late Sun into Sun night, as a weak frontal system moves through
the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through
late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

684
AXNT20 KNHC 140408
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 09N and east of 33W .

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is currently
occurring with this wave.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of
19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
currently occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Most convection with this wave is in
the eastern North Pacific waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N27W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 03N29W and then continues from
03N41W to 00N50W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are noted on satellite imagery near the broad area
of low pressure in the western Gulf. The tight pressure gradient
between this low and a 1018 mb ridge in the eastern Gulf sustain
fresh to locally strong SE winds and moderate to locally rough
seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and
north of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure from just
offshore of eastern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche
continues to produce bands of shower and thunderstorm activity,
mainly across eastern portions. Significant development is not
anticipated before the low pressure area shifts inland over
eastern Mexico by early Sunday. The system could re-emerge over
the northwestern Gulf of America on Tue or Wed while interacting
with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and 1018 mb high pressure over the east-central Gulf
will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas,
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the
western Gulf through Sun night. The Atlantic ridge will build
westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower
pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture combined to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, north of 18N
and between 74W and 82W. This activity is also affecting portions
of central and eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica.
Similar storms are also noted in the isthmus of Panama, Costa
Rica, and nearby waters.

The tight pressure gradient between the sub-tropical ridge over
the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America
forces fresh to near gale easterly trade winds and moderate to
rough seas over much of the basin, south of 19N. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 33 kt off
northern Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W
westward across central Florida along 28N and into the NE Gulf of
America. The ridge will generally remain in place through Sun
night to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect
highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to
fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
nightly through Thu. The ridge north of the area will reorganize
Sun night through early Tue then shift slowly NE through midweek,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the
central and southeast Bahamas and central and eastern Cuba. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging
along 27N, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found
north of 17N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends
through 26N55W westward across central Florida along 28N and into
the NE Gulf of America, and will generally remain in place
through Sun night. The ridge will reorganize Sun night through
early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Wed. This pattern will
support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle
anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun evening, then become SE to
S winds across much of the area waters through midweek. Fresh SW
winds will briefly develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of
74W late Sun into Sun night, then become moderate winds through
Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect
fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across
Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Delgado

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

743
AXNT20 KNHC 140409
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 02N to 09N and east of 33W .

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is currently
occurring with this wave.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of
19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
currently occurring with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Most convection with this wave is in
the eastern North Pacific waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N27W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 03N29W and then continues from
03N41W to 00N50W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are noted on satellite imagery near the broad area
of low pressure in the western Gulf. The tight pressure gradient
between this low and a 1018 mb ridge in the eastern Gulf sustain
fresh to locally strong SE winds and moderate to locally rough
seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and
north of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure from just
offshore of eastern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche
continues to produce bands of shower and thunderstorm activity,
mainly across eastern portions. Significant development is not
anticipated before the low pressure area shifts inland over
eastern Mexico by early Sunday. The system could re-emerge over
the northwestern Gulf of America on Tue or Wed while interacting
with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and 1018 mb high pressure over the east-central Gulf
will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas,
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the
western Gulf through Sun night. The Atlantic ridge will build
westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower
pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote
fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture combined to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, north of 18N
and between 74W and 82W. This activity is also affecting portions
of central and eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica.
Similar storms are also noted in the isthmus of Panama, Costa
Rica, and nearby waters.

The tight pressure gradient between the sub-tropical ridge over
the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America
forces fresh to near gale easterly trade winds and moderate to
rough seas over much of the basin, south of 19N. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 33 kt off
northern Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W
westward across central Florida along 28N and into the NE Gulf of
America. The ridge will generally remain in place through Sun
night to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect
highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to
fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
nightly through Thu. The ridge north of the area will reorganize
Sun night through early Tue then shift slowly NE through midweek,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the
central and southeast Bahamas and central and eastern Cuba. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging
along 27N, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found
north of 17N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends
through 26N55W westward across central Florida along 28N and into
the NE Gulf of America, and will generally remain in place
through Sun night. The ridge will reorganize Sun night through
early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Wed. This pattern will
support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle
anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun evening, then become SE to
S winds across much of the area waters through midweek. Fresh SW
winds will briefly develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of
74W late Sun into Sun night, then become moderate winds through
Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect
fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across
Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Delgado

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

712
AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 02N to 07.5N between 22W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W-44W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is near
the wave axis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection follows the wave from 06N to 09.5N between 53W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
associated with this wave is along the monsoon trough in the SW
Caribbean, while most associated convection is in the eastern
North Pacific waters E of 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to
04.5N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02.5N42W and then
continues from 02N44W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to
11N E of 17W. Elsewhere, a few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Widely scattered moderate convection is noted on satellite
imagery across the western Gulf W of 95W, near the elongated area
of low pressure along the Mexican coast, except for scattered
moderate isolated strong convection S of 21N and W of 92.5W. A
tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1018 mb high in the
eastern Gulf is sustaining fresh to locally strong SE winds and
moderate to locally rough seas 6 to 9 ft west of a line from
SW Louisiana to the NE Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure has moved
inland across coastal portions of eastern Mexico, but could re-
emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tue or Wed while
interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient
between the low pressure area and 1018 mb high pressure over the
east- central Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and
moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight,
while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through
Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue
through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and
northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds
over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large cluster of moderate to strong convection persisting over
the Cayman Islands and across the NW Caribbean waters between
Jamaica and Cuba has begun to diminish recently, aided by middle
to upper level troughing extending across the NW Bahamas and
through the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to strong
convection has flared up along the monsoon trough across the SW
Caribbean, behind the passing tropical wave. At the surface, the
western Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W westward across
central Florida along 27N. The pressure gradient between this
sub- tropical ridge and lower pressures in northern South America
is forcing fresh to near gale easterly trade winds and rough seas
over the central basin south of 198. Recent satellite scatterometer
data captured winds up to 33 kt off northern Colombia, while
satellite altimeter data showed seas in the area to near 12 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail
across all but far NW portions.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through early Mon and support a large area of fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the
Caribbean basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the
central and southeast Bahamas and central and eastern Cuba, but
have diminished in intensity in recent hours. A broad ridge
dominates the Atlantic basin along 26N-27N, and extends across
central Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W,
except for 7 to 8 ft seas just E of the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found
north of 15N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will
generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize along
60W Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This
pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N, then
become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow
will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to
moderate SE to S winds Mon through Wed. Fresh SW winds will develop
across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun through early
Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters
near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

711
AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 02N to 07.5N between 22W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W-44W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is near
the wave axis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection follows the wave from 06N to 09.5N between 53W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
associated with this wave is along the monsoon trough in the SW
Caribbean, while most associated convection is in the eastern
North Pacific waters E of 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to
04.5N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02.5N42W and then
continues from 02N44W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to
11N E of 17W. Elsewhere, a few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Widely scattered moderate convection is noted on satellite
imagery across the western Gulf W of 95W, near the elongated area
of low pressure along the Mexican coast, except for scattered
moderate isolated strong convection S of 21N and W of 92.5W. A
tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1018 mb high in the
eastern Gulf is sustaining fresh to locally strong SE winds and
moderate to locally rough seas 6 to 9 ft west of a line from
SW Louisiana to the NE Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure has moved
inland across coastal portions of eastern Mexico, but could re-
emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tue or Wed while
interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient
between the low pressure area and 1018 mb high pressure over the
east- central Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and
moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight,
while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through
Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue
through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and
northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds
over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large cluster of moderate to strong convection persisting over
the Cayman Islands and across the NW Caribbean waters between
Jamaica and Cuba has begun to diminish recently, aided by middle
to upper level troughing extending across the NW Bahamas and
through the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to strong
convection has flared up along the monsoon trough across the SW
Caribbean, behind the passing tropical wave. At the surface, the
western Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W westward across
central Florida along 27N. The pressure gradient between this
sub- tropical ridge and lower pressures in northern South America
is forcing fresh to near gale easterly trade winds and rough seas
over the central basin south of 198. Recent satellite scatterometer
data captured winds up to 33 kt off northern Colombia, while
satellite altimeter data showed seas in the area to near 12 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail
across all but far NW portions.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through early Mon and support a large area of fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the
Caribbean basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the
central and southeast Bahamas and central and eastern Cuba, but
have diminished in intensity in recent hours. A broad ridge
dominates the Atlantic basin along 26N-27N, and extends across
central Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W,
except for 7 to 8 ft seas just E of the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found
north of 15N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will
generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize along
60W Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This
pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N, then
become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow
will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to
moderate SE to S winds Mon through Wed. Fresh SW winds will develop
across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun through early
Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak
frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong
winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters
near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

013
AXNT20 KNHC 141758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south
of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N
to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of
18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible
near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the
wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between
58W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to
inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east
of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to
05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02N44W. It continues
from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to
11N east of 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the
western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019
mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is
over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low
and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds
over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The
Yucatan Peninsula has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from
27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity
is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to
just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers
are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21.5N and west of 93W.

For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is
not expected during the next day or so while the low remains
inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next
day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern
Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal
boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough
seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic
ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and
combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern
Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through
26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South
America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N.
Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell.
Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to
near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over
just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion,
where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern
part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland
the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to
the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends
into the southwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly
along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N28N west of 43W, stretching
across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high
center near 29N32W and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower
pressures in the tropical region is allowing for moderate to
fresh trade winds along with moderate seas south of about 21N and
west of 35W, except from 13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to
35W where fresh northeast winds are present as noted in a
satellite scatterometer data pass from this morning. Moderate seas
are in this area as well. Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed
from near 31N37W to to 26N46W. No significant convection is
present with this feature. The latest satellite scatterometer data
passes indicate moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds elsewhere
over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes along with
recent buoy reports are indicating slight to moderate seas
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends
westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America.
The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then
reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward
through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to
southeast trade winds S of 22N, then become moderate to fresh
through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere
through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon
through Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N
and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to
70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the
SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

015
AXNT20 KNHC 141758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south
of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N
to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of
18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible
near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the
wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between
58W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to
inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east
of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to
05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02N44W. It continues
from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to
11N east of 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the
western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019
mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is
over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low
and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds
over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The
Yucatan Peninsula has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from
27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity
is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to
just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers
are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21.5N and west of 93W.

For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is
not expected during the next day or so while the low remains
inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next
day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern
Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal
boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough
seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic
ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and
combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern
Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through
26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South
America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N.
Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell.
Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to
near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over
just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion,
where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern
part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland
the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to
the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends
into the southwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly
along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N28N west of 43W, stretching
across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high
center near 29N32W and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower
pressures in the tropical region is allowing for moderate to
fresh trade winds along with moderate seas south of about 21N and
west of 35W, except from 13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to
35W where fresh northeast winds are present as noted in a
satellite scatterometer data pass from this morning. Moderate seas
are in this area as well. Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed
from near 31N37W to to 26N46W. No significant convection is
present with this feature. The latest satellite scatterometer data
passes indicate moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds elsewhere
over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes along with
recent buoy reports are indicating slight to moderate seas
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends
westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America.
The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then
reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward
through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to
southeast trade winds S of 22N, then become moderate to fresh
through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere
through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon
through Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N
and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to
70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the
SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

088
AXNT20 KNHC 141800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south
of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N
to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of
18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible
near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the
wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between
58W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to
inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east
of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to
05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02N44W. It continues
from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to
11N east of 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the
western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019
mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is
over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low
and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds
over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The
Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from
27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity
is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to
just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers
are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21.5N and west of 93W.

For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is
not expected during the next day or so while the low remains
inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next
day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern
Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal
boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough
seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic
ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and
combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern
Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through
26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South
America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N.
Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell.
Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to
near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over
just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion,
where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern
part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland
the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to
the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends
into the southwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly
along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N28N west of 43W, stretching
across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high
center near 29N32W and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower
pressures in the tropical region is allowing for moderate to
fresh trade winds along with moderate seas south of about 21N and
west of 35W, except from 13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to
35W where fresh northeast winds are present as noted in a
satellite scatterometer data pass from this morning. Moderate seas
are in this area as well. Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed
from near 31N37W to to 26N46W. No significant convection is
present with this feature. The latest satellite scatterometer data
passes indicate moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds elsewhere
over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes along with
recent buoy reports are indicating slight to moderate seas
elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends
westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America.
The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then
reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward
through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to
southeast trade winds south of 22N, then become moderate to fresh
through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through
tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon through
Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of
74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through
early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect
fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across
Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

605
AXNT20 KNHC 141803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south
of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N
to 07N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of
18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible
near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the
wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between
58W and 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to
inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east
of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to
05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02N44W. It continues
from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to
11N east of 18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the
western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019
mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is
over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low
and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds
over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The
Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from
27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity
is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to
just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers
are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21.5N and west of 93W.

For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is
not expected during the next day or so while the low remains
inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next
day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern
Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal
boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough
seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic
ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and
combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern
Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through
26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South
America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and
rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N.
Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell.
Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to
near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes
indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over
just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion,
where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern
part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland
the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to
the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends
into the southwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to
strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly
along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N-28N west of 43W, stretching
across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high
center near 29N32W, and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures
in the tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along
with moderate seas south of about 21N and west of 35W, except from
13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to 35W where fresh northeast
winds are present as noted in a satellite scatterometer data pass
from this morning. Moderate seas are in this area as well.
Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed from near 31N37W to to 26N46W.
No significant convection is present with this feature. The latest
satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter
satellite data passes along with recent buoy reports are indicating
slight to moderate seas elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends
westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America.
The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then
reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward
through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to
southeast trade winds south of 22N, then become moderate to fresh
through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through
tonight then become gentle to moderate southeast to south winds Mon
through Wed. Fresh southwest winds will develop across the NW
forecast waters, namely north of 29N and west of 74W late Sun
through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as
a weak frontal system moves through the southeastern U.S. Expect
fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across
Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Aguirre

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

499
AXNT20 KNHC 142038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W south
of 17N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to
09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46/47W south
of 18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65/66W south of
18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection in the wake of the wave is along and just inland the
coast of South America between 62W and 64W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 86W south
of 19N to inland Central America. It is moving westward at about
10 to 15 kt. Most associated convection associated with this wave
is in the eastern north pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 12N16W and
extends SW to near 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 05N27W.
It resumes from 04N31W to 04N45W. Aside from convection noted in
the TROPICAL WAVES section above, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 14N between 10W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is
centered over central Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate winds W of 90W. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the waters E of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located over
eastern Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development is not expected during the next day or so
while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern
Texas. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal
boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas across
the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will
build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with
lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will
promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft prevail over the
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft
are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 3-6 ft, are found over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will generally
remain in place through early Mon and will support a large area of
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the
central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored
by a 1023 mb high near 27N53W, and a 1026 mb high near 29N32W. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, and falling
pressure over Africa with a tropical wave over western Africa, is
supporting fresh to strong winds N of 20N and E of 20W to the
coast of Africa. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere over the waters E of 30W, and S of 20N. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally remain
in place through early Mon, then reorganize Mon through early
Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support
moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N, then become moderate to
fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere
through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon
through Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N
and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to
70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the
SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

275
AXNT20 KNHC 142038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W south
of 17N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to
09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46/47W south
of 18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is
presently occurring near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65/66W south of
18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection in the wake of the wave is along and just inland the
coast of South America between 62W and 64W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 86W south
of 19N to inland Central America. It is moving westward at about
10 to 15 kt. Most associated convection associated with this wave
is in the eastern north pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 12N16W and
extends SW to near 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 05N27W.
It resumes from 04N31W to 04N45W. Aside from convection noted in
the TROPICAL WAVES section above, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 14N between 10W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is
centered over central Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate winds W of 90W. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the waters E of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located over
eastern Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development is not expected during the next day or so
while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern
Texas. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal
boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally
conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low
pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will
support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas across
the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will
build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with
lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will
promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft prevail over the
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft
are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 3-6 ft, are found over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will generally
remain in place through early Mon and will support a large area of
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the
central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of
Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will
reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored
by a 1023 mb high near 27N53W, and a 1026 mb high near 29N32W. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, and falling
pressure over Africa with a tropical wave over western Africa, is
supporting fresh to strong winds N of 20N and E of 20W to the
coast of Africa. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere over the waters E of 30W, and S of 20N. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally remain
in place through early Mon, then reorganize Mon through early
Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support
moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N, then become moderate to
fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere
through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon
through Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N
and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to
70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the
SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
AL

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

967
AXNT20 KNHC 150427
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic
along 19W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total
precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 02N to 11N and east of 24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 02N to 09N and between 25W and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 04N to 08N and west of 45W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, south of
18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring south of 14N and between the wave and 61W.

The tropical wave previously in the western Caribbean Sea has
moved into the eastern Pacific. Please read the Eastern Pacific's
Tropical Weather Discussion for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05N33W and then from 05N36W to 05N49W.
Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak high pressure over the NE Gulf waters dominates the basin,
supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas across
the western Gulf and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located over northeastern
Mexico will remain inland and drift northward over northeastern
Mexico and then into southern Texas through Wed. The system could
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf Wed, where environmental
conditions may support some development around midweek. The
pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge across the Gulf
region will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf,
likely through Thu, as the pressure gradient tightens further.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off Panama, Costa Rica
and Cuba. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern
South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, south of 19N. The
strongest winds and highest seas are noted off Colombia.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W extends a ridge
westward through the central Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of
America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian
low will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean through early Mon. Then, the ridge will reorganize to
the E Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing
winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras nightly through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 60W and 75W. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and
west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are found north of 16N and east of 30W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W
extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into the
eastern Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place
through early Mon, then reorganize to the E Mon through early
Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support
moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N through Wed. Fresh
SW winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W
tonight through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through
early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Delgado

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

966
AXNT20 KNHC 150427
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic
along 19W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total
precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 02N to 11N and east of 24W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 02N to 09N and between 25W and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 04N to 08N and west of 45W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, south of
18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring south of 14N and between the wave and 61W.

The tropical wave previously in the western Caribbean Sea has
moved into the eastern Pacific. Please read the Eastern Pacific's
Tropical Weather Discussion for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05N33W and then from 05N36W to 05N49W.
Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak high pressure over the NE Gulf waters dominates the basin,
supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas across
the western Gulf and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located over northeastern
Mexico will remain inland and drift northward over northeastern
Mexico and then into southern Texas through Wed. The system could
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf Wed, where environmental
conditions may support some development around midweek. The
pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge across the Gulf
region will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf,
likely through Thu, as the pressure gradient tightens further.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off Panama, Costa Rica
and Cuba. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern
South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, south of 19N. The
strongest winds and highest seas are noted off Colombia.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W extends a ridge
westward through the central Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of
America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian
low will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central
Caribbean through early Mon. Then, the ridge will reorganize to
the E Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu,
leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing
winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras nightly through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 60W and 75W. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and
west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are found north of 16N and east of 30W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W
extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into the
eastern Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place
through early Mon, then reorganize to the E Mon through early
Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support
moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N through Wed. Fresh
SW winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W
tonight through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through
early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S.
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening
across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Delgado

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

922
AXNT20 KNHC 151034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 20W-21W, south
of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 03.5N to 12.5N between 14W and
28W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
03N to 07N and between 31W and 39W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present from 05.5N to 08.5N from 50W to 58.5W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 18N, moving
westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers dot the waters behind
the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06.5N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06.5N30W to 05.5N36W and then resumes from
05.5N38W to 05.5N52W. Beyond convection described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the eastern Gulf
waters near 26N86.5W and extends a broad ridge westward to near
92W. Meanwhile, elongated low pressure persists across
northeastern Mexico and extends into S Texas. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds
and moderate seas to 5 ft across the western Gulf and off the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is across the central Texas coastal
waters, and shifting southeastward into the coastal waters from SE
Louisiana to south of Mobile Bay.

For the forecast, the trough of low pressure located over
northeastern Mexico and into S Texas will remain inland and drift
northward through midweek. New low pressure may develop late Tue
across S Texas and move NE across coastal Texas through Wed. This
system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf Wed, where
environmental conditions may support some development. Expect
active showers and thunderstorms across the NW Gulf during this
time. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge into the
eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the low pressure and
the ridge will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and moderate to fresh
winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

1023 mb high pressure is centered across the Atlantic near 26N62W
and extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into
the eastern Gulf of America. A tropical wave is moving quickly
into the central Caribbean along 70W, with scattered showers
behind the wave south of 14N, between 67W and 70W. The pressure
gradient south of the Atlantic ridge is producing a large area of
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central basin
between 65W and 80W, highest off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 7
to 10 ft across these waters. Fresh winds prevail across the
remainder of the eastern basin, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate
E to SE winds prevail across the rest of the basin W of 80W,
becoming gentle between Jamaica and the Yucatan Channel, with
moderate seas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
along the monsoon trough between 80W and the E coast of Nicaragua.
Fair skies prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will reorganize E of 60W
today through Wed, then drift N to along 28N Thu through Fri. A
large area of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean this morning will gradually retreat to the south-central
basin tonight through Tue, then persist through the end of the
week. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia.
Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf
of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere across the NW Caribbean will become SE at fresh to
strong speeds Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
extending from 1024 mb high pressure S of the Azores to 1023 mb
high pressure near 26N62W then westward through the central
Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. A low level trough
extends along 80W across the coastal waters of central and NE
Florida. Fresh S to SW winds to the east of the feature are
forcing a cluster of scattered moderate convection N of 29N
between the trough and 77W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area.
Another surface trough is along about 46W to the N of 27N. Low
level convergence ahead of this trough is producing scattered
moderate convection from 28N to 32N between the trough and 40W.
The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of
22N and between 50W and 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft are found elsewhere south of 20N and west of 35W.
In the far east, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6-8
ft are found north of 16N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will reorganize E of 60W
today through Wed, then drift N to along 28N Thu through Fri. This
pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade
winds S of 22N throughout the week. Fresh SW winds are expected
across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W this morning, then will
expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system
moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

923
AXNT20 KNHC 151034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 20W-21W, south
of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 03.5N to 12.5N between 14W and
28W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
03N to 07N and between 31W and 39W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present from 05.5N to 08.5N from 50W to 58.5W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 18N, moving
westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers dot the waters behind
the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06.5N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06.5N30W to 05.5N36W and then resumes from
05.5N38W to 05.5N52W. Beyond convection described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the eastern Gulf
waters near 26N86.5W and extends a broad ridge westward to near
92W. Meanwhile, elongated low pressure persists across
northeastern Mexico and extends into S Texas. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds
and moderate seas to 5 ft across the western Gulf and off the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is across the central Texas coastal
waters, and shifting southeastward into the coastal waters from SE
Louisiana to south of Mobile Bay.

For the forecast, the trough of low pressure located over
northeastern Mexico and into S Texas will remain inland and drift
northward through midweek. New low pressure may develop late Tue
across S Texas and move NE across coastal Texas through Wed. This
system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf Wed, where
environmental conditions may support some development. Expect
active showers and thunderstorms across the NW Gulf during this
time. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge into the
eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the low pressure and
the ridge will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the
western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and moderate to fresh
winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

1023 mb high pressure is centered across the Atlantic near 26N62W
and extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into
the eastern Gulf of America. A tropical wave is moving quickly
into the central Caribbean along 70W, with scattered showers
behind the wave south of 14N, between 67W and 70W. The pressure
gradient south of the Atlantic ridge is producing a large area of
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central basin
between 65W and 80W, highest off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 7
to 10 ft across these waters. Fresh winds prevail across the
remainder of the eastern basin, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate
E to SE winds prevail across the rest of the basin W of 80W,
becoming gentle between Jamaica and the Yucatan Channel, with
moderate seas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
along the monsoon trough between 80W and the E coast of Nicaragua.
Fair skies prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will reorganize E of 60W
today through Wed, then drift N to along 28N Thu through Fri. A
large area of fresh to strong trade winds across the central
Caribbean this morning will gradually retreat to the south-central
basin tonight through Tue, then persist through the end of the
week. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia.
Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf
of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere across the NW Caribbean will become SE at fresh to
strong speeds Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
extending from 1024 mb high pressure S of the Azores to 1023 mb
high pressure near 26N62W then westward through the central
Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. A low level trough
extends along 80W across the coastal waters of central and NE
Florida. Fresh S to SW winds to the east of the feature are
forcing a cluster of scattered moderate convection N of 29N
between the trough and 77W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area.
Another surface trough is along about 46W to the N of 27N. Low
level convergence ahead of this trough is producing scattered
moderate convection from 28N to 32N between the trough and 40W.
The pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of
22N and between 50W and 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft are found elsewhere south of 20N and west of 35W.
In the far east, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6-8
ft are found north of 16N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will reorganize E of 60W
today through Wed, then drift N to along 28N Thu through Fri. This
pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade
winds S of 22N throughout the week. Fresh SW winds are expected
across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W this morning, then will
expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system
moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

212
AXNT20 KNHC 151743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21W, south of
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 10N between 14W and 26W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
03N to 08N and between 32W and 40W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present S of 09N between 51W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N, moving
westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the
waters behind the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 05N38W and then resumes from 05N40W
to 05.5N52W. In addition to convection described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as well as
in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsehwere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-4 ft E of 90W to 4-6 ft
W of 90W.

For the forecast, a trough just inland northeastern Mexico will
drift northward during the next couple of days. It is then
forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly
re-emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time
environmental conditions may support some development. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf
during this time. Some of this activity may produce wind gusts to
near gale force. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between a
western Atlantic ridge that stretches west-northwestward to the NE
Gulf and the low pressure will sustain fresh to strong southerly
winds over the western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N43W to 26N48W, with scattered
moderate convection seen E of the trough axis out to about 37W
and N of 28N. Fresh SW winds are also confirmed by recent
scatterometer data E of the trough to about 40W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing along a surface trough
off the SE US coast. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas across much of the basin S of 22N, as
well as N of 22N and E of 35W. NE winds are locally strong in
between the Canary Islands, per recent scatterometer data. Gentle
to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
will change little through the period generally maintaining
moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N throughout the
week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds east of northeast Florida
to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These winds will expand
eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves
across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Adams

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

213
AXNT20 KNHC 151743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21W, south of
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 04N to 10N between 14W and 26W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from
03N to 08N and between 32W and 40W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is present S of 09N between 51W and 60W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N, moving
westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the
waters behind the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 05N38W and then resumes from 05N40W
to 05.5N52W. In addition to convection described above in the
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as well as
in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsehwere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-4 ft E of 90W to 4-6 ft
W of 90W.

For the forecast, a trough just inland northeastern Mexico will
drift northward during the next couple of days. It is then
forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly
re-emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time
environmental conditions may support some development. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf
during this time. Some of this activity may produce wind gusts to
near gale force. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between a
western Atlantic ridge that stretches west-northwestward to the NE
Gulf and the low pressure will sustain fresh to strong southerly
winds over the western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean
including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N43W to 26N48W, with scattered
moderate convection seen E of the trough axis out to about 37W
and N of 28N. Fresh SW winds are also confirmed by recent
scatterometer data E of the trough to about 40W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing along a surface trough
off the SE US coast. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas across much of the basin S of 22N, as
well as N of 22N and E of 35W. NE winds are locally strong in
between the Canary Islands, per recent scatterometer data. Gentle
to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area
will change little through the period generally maintaining
moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N throughout the
week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds east of northeast Florida
to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These winds will expand
eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves
across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Adams

= = = = = = =
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

866=20
AXNT20 KNHC 152010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low=20
pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large=20
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not
expected during the next day or so while the trough remains=20
inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern=20
Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental=20
conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a=20
short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.=20
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across=20
southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and=20
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over=20
the next several days which could produce widespread, life-
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and=20
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the=20
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings=20
could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system=20
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather=20
Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.=20
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20=20
KNHC/TWOAT or at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;= !!DZ3fjg!93QQ2JGZHvebh3WKOBqUMfh4g-NFz5aKXXdItXHRzwkBU9rGILg_sJnZk35LpqXnsp= llX7hqFMSHJtztYiVSusAbFyU$ for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of=20
18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at=20
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N=20
to 11N between 13W and 24W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving=20
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated=20
strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola
to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving=20
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the=20
waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep
convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W
to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the=20
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found
from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of
America.

Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as=20
well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4
ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is=20
inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during=20
the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf=20
late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be=20
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical=20
storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are=20
expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening=20
pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong=20
southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu=20
night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds=20
begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The=20
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the=20
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas=20
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh=20
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean,
except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to=20
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high=20
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater=20
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong=20
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the=20
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected=20
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle=20
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W,=20
with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and
50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from
31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of
the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers
are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and
dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022
mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to=20
fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of
20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to
the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three
Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above.
Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed
NE-E and NW-N swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area=20
will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night.=20
The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally=20
fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in=20
coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds=20
east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These
winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak=20
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected=20
to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast=20
Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each=20
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto=20
Rico and Hispaniola.=20

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

916=20
AXNT20 KNHC 152010
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low=20
pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large=20
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not
expected during the next day or so while the trough remains=20
inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern=20
Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental=20
conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a=20
short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.=20
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across=20
southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and=20
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over=20
the next several days which could produce widespread, life-
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and=20
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the=20
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings=20
could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system=20
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather=20
Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.=20
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20=20
KNHC/TWOAT or at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;= !!DZ3fjg!779Xw4foAiFLN7rzoBjlL9PGo-UlcN8ZJYX2KwPLbWemcnTRb-Nrff5PN47x-skDc0= P2Js1ObQxpDrsPvk7pRTm8dmI$ for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of=20
18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at=20
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N=20
to 11N between 13W and 24W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving=20
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated=20
strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola
to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving=20
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the=20
waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep
convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W
to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the=20
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found
from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of
America.

Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as=20
well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4
ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is=20
inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during=20
the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf=20
late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be=20
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical=20
storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are=20
expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening=20
pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong=20
southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu=20
night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds=20
begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The=20
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the=20
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas=20
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh=20
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean,
except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to=20
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high=20
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater=20
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong=20
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the=20
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected=20
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle=20
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W,=20
with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and
50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from
31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of
the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers
are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and
dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022
mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to=20
fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of
20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to
the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three
Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above.
Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed
NE-E and NW-N swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area=20
will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night.=20
The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally=20
fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in=20
coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds=20
east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These
winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak=20
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected=20
to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast=20
Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each=20
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto=20
Rico and Hispaniola.=20

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

189=20
AXNT20 KNHC 152303
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low=20
pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large=20
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not
expected during the next day or so while the trough remains=20
inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern=20
Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental=20
conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a=20
short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.=20
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across=20
southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and=20
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over=20
the next several days which could produce widespread, life-
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and=20
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the=20
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings=20
could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system=20
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather=20
Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.=20
Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20=20
KNHC/TWOAT or at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;= !!DZ3fjg!7bYhMgZ3efhoqoOwOS8UwMVNprEu8Mo-WiiqnUodD8aKCpRw8DNgThnNgFAV1nrmxv= BG6IhDzwfmZWQgO0vcbyWCZvM$ for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of=20
18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at=20
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N=20
to 11N between 13W and 24W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving=20
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated=20
strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola
to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving=20
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the=20
waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep
convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W
to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the=20
TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found
from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of
America.

Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal
boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface
troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between
these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic
support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as=20
well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4
ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is=20
inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during=20
the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf=20
late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be=20
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical=20
storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are=20
expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening=20
pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong=20
southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu=20
night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds=20
begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in
the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The=20
pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the=20
Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas=20
across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh=20
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean,
except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to=20
moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high=20
pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater=20
Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong=20
trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the=20
forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected=20
off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle=20
to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will
become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W,=20
with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and
50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from
31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of
the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers
are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and
dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022
mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to=20
fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of
20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to
the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three
Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above.
Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed
NE-E and NW-N swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area=20
will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night.=20
The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally=20
fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in=20
coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds=20
east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These
winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak=20
frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected=20
to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast=20
Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each=20
afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto=20
Rico and Hispaniola.=20

$$
Lewitsky

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

753=20
AXNT20 KNHC 160513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure located inland near the Texas/Mexico border continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.=20
The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America=20
today, and environmental conditions there are expected to be=20
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical=20
storm later today or on Wednesday. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and=20
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods=20
of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce
widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding.=20
Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions=20
of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or=20
Warnings could be required later today. Additional information on=20
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.

This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in=20
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather=20
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO=20
headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;= !!DZ3fjg!7wJ2wup_uLN6DEkSs3_0G0hyRRjZuxOww3FVqdr22zNhy1ZPzNdC5P_rfomQldrT8A= tYtIplo-mfQCzzMrB15Pkn0rs$ for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 17N,=20
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
observed from 04N to 11N AND between 17W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 16N,=20
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
present from 03N to 09N and between 33W and 54W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 13N and between 55W and 64W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving=20
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
south of 13N and between 69W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 04N43W and then from 04N45W to=20
04N51W. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details=20
on the convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of
America.

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms affecting NE Mexico, southern Texas and nearshore
waters. The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of
the subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and
moderate seas, west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it=20
is inland across northeastern Mexico, and will move slowly=20
N to NE during the next couple of days. Low pressure is expected=20
to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly re-=20
emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time=20
environmental conditions may be marginally conducive for the=20
formation of a short-lived tropical storm Wed into Thu. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW Gulf Tue through
Thu. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the area will
sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf=20
early Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over
the eastern Gulf. Winds begin to diminish Fri as high pressure=20
settles in over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are seen south of eastern Cuba and off western
Jamaica. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical=20
ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern=20
South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough
seas in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest=20
seas are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes
and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to=20
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic
westward along 27N and across S Florida. The pressure gradient
across the region will sustain a large area of fresh to strong=20
trade winds in the south-central basin through the forecast=20
period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of=20
Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in=20
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale Wed
night, Thu night and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds=20
elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become SE at=20
fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu night.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 67W and 75W. Moderate to
fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and
west of 65W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds=20
and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the=20
far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are=20
present north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or=20
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from 1022 mb
high pressure near 26N57W westward along 27N and across S=20
Florida, and will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken=20
Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing=20
some in coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh SW winds=20
offshore of northeast Florida to near 74W are occurring ahead of a
surface trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 67W=20
through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the=20
southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore late Fri=20
night and stall offshore northeast Florida Sat and Sat night.=20
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening=20
across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.=20

$$
Delgado

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

839=20
AXNT20 KNHC 160513
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure located inland near the Texas/Mexico border continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.=20
The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America=20
today, and environmental conditions there are expected to be=20
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical=20
storm later today or on Wednesday. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and=20
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods=20
of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce
widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding.=20
Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions=20
of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or=20
Warnings could be required later today. Additional information on=20
this system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.

This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in=20
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather=20
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO=20
headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;= !!DZ3fjg!--ptN_x4EFS9_6OHRAzEtlioCGqZXezSv27JpyK3G2NY3nYN9X0UifrpWyXRpI0RN-= 9jyXiQQxs6UrXXcMyEIN0Q2gA$ for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 17N,=20
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
observed from 04N to 11N AND between 17W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 16N,=20
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
present from 03N to 09N and between 33W and 54W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 17N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted south of 13N and between 55W and 64W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving=20
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
south of 13N and between 69W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 04N43W and then from 04N45W to=20
04N51W. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details=20
on the convection.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of
America.

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms affecting NE Mexico, southern Texas and nearshore
waters. The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of
the subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and
moderate seas, west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it=20
is inland across northeastern Mexico, and will move slowly=20
N to NE during the next couple of days. Low pressure is expected=20
to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly re-=20
emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time=20
environmental conditions may be marginally conducive for the=20
formation of a short-lived tropical storm Wed into Thu. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW Gulf Tue through
Thu. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the area will
sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf=20
early Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over
the eastern Gulf. Winds begin to diminish Fri as high pressure=20
settles in over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are seen south of eastern Cuba and off western
Jamaica. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical=20
ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern=20
South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough
seas in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest=20
seas are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes
and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to=20
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic
westward along 27N and across S Florida. The pressure gradient
across the region will sustain a large area of fresh to strong=20
trade winds in the south-central basin through the forecast=20
period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of=20
Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in=20
the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale Wed
night, Thu night and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds=20
elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become SE at=20
fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu night.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and
seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 67W and 75W. Moderate to
fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and
west of 65W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds=20
and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the=20
far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are=20
present north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or=20
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from 1022 mb
high pressure near 26N57W westward along 27N and across S=20
Florida, and will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken=20
Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to
locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing=20
some in coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh SW winds=20
offshore of northeast Florida to near 74W are occurring ahead of a
surface trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 67W=20
through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the=20
southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore late Fri=20
night and stall offshore northeast Florida Sat and Sat night.=20
Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening=20
across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.=20

$$
Delgado

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

711=20
AXNT20 KNHC 161016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure extending across coastal portions of NE Mexico, across=20
the Texas/Mexico border and into south Texas, continues to=20
produce a large area of strong showers and thunderstorms from NE=20
Mexico to SW Louisiana. This system is expected to move north-
northeastward during the next few days, and could re-emerge over=20
the northwestern Gulf of America today through Wed. Environmental=20
conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the=20
formation of a short- lived tropical storm later today or on Wed.=20
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across=20
southern and eastern Texas, southern portions of Louisiana and=20
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over=20
the next several days, which could produce widespread, life-=20
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and=20
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the=20
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings=20
could be required later today. Additional information on this=20
system can be found in products issued by your local National=20
Weather Service Forecast Office or the NHC Key Messages.

This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in=20
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather=20
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO=20
headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;= !!DZ3fjg!-qYeEyHws3JB7y2x0_12HJCq4gXmLh7-9rI2W3UG4DZnvxa53nuRfTtI6SoDp7X5D2= UefTS4QA5Y4C2ylx1klHArupA$ for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 17N,=20
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 20W and=20
32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W-47W, south of 17N,=20
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
present from 04.5N to 09.5N and between 40W and 54W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving=20
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong=20
convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 58W and 66W.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N,=20
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
found south of 14N and between 74W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 05.5N34W.=20
The ITCZ extends from 05.5N34W to 05.5N45W and then from 05.5N48W
to 06N57W. Convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of
America.

Abundant low level moisture continues to stream northward across
the western Gulf and is converging on the easter side of a trough
of low pressure extending from eastern Mexico into south Texas.
Favorable upper level conditions aloft continue to support
numerous large clusters of strong convection across coastal
sections and the near shore waters from NE Mexico to SW Louisiana.
The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of the=20
Atlantic subtropical ridge extending across south Florida and into
the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh
SE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft, west of 90W and off northern=20
Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure across NE Mexico and S Texas is
expected to move slowly NE during the next couple of days, and=20
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf=20
today or Wed. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive=20
for the formation of a short- lived tropical storm as this occurs.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW=20
Gulf Tue through Thu as this systems moves through the area.=20
Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will=20
sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf Tue=20
night through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure=20
settles in over the eastern Gulf.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continues early this morning across
eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage and into western Haiti, while a
few showers are across the Cayman Islands. The pressure gradient=20
between the subtropical Atlantic ridge over the central Atlantic=20
and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing fresh to
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central=20
Caribbean, south of 17N. The strongest winds and highest seas are
noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and=20
moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of=20
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to=20
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will generally=20
remain in place into this weekend. The pressure gradient across=20
the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-=20
central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and=20
seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to
strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly=20
through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night.=20
Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern=20
Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu
night, then will diminish through the weekend.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
extending from 1022 mb high pressure southeast of the Azores,
southwestward into the central Atlantic and then westward along
26N and across south Florida. This pattern is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of=20
23N and between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and=20
moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 67W.=20
South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and=20
seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far=20
east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present
north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will change=20
little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related=20
pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade=20
winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night=20
through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast=20
Florida to near 67W are occurring ahead of a surface trough.=20
These winds will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a=20
weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front=20
is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore=20
northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds=20
each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near=20
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.=20

$$
Stripling

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)

712=20
AXNT20 KNHC 161017
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low
pressure extending across coastal portions of NE Mexico, across=20
the Texas/Mexico border and into south Texas, continues to=20
produce a large area of strong showers and thunderstorms from NE=20
Mexico to SW Louisiana. This system is expected to move north-
northeastward during the next few days, and could re-emerge over=20
the northwestern Gulf of America today through Wed. Environmental=20
conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the=20
formation of a short- lived tropical storm later today or on Wed.=20
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across=20
southern and eastern Texas, southern portions of Louisiana and=20
Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over=20
the next several days, which could produce widespread, life-=20
threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and=20
coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the=20
northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings=20
could be required later today. Additional information on this=20
system can be found in products issued by your local National=20
Weather Service Forecast Office or the NHC Key Messages.

This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in=20
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather=20
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO=20
headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml__;= !!DZ3fjg!5Q9eiltfRep06RtZlBhXZt8MHJPpzNUPcJjcMd0zR98iHMKszH0KQUtcIeAuZrgAhO= TIHcqjtrgDGrnTcEzg-ICHhtE$ for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 17N,=20
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 20W and=20
32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W-47W, south of 17N,=20
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
present from 04.5N to 09.5N and between 40W and 54W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving=20
westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong=20
convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 58W and 66W.

Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N,=20
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is=20
found south of 14N and between 74W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 05.5N34W.=20
The ITCZ extends from 05.5N34W to 05.5N45W and then from 05.5N48W
to 06N57W. Convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of
America.

Abundant low level moisture continues to stream northward across
the western Gulf and is converging on the easter side of a trough
of low pressure extending from eastern Mexico into south Texas.
Favorable upper level conditions aloft continue to support
numerous large clusters of strong convection across coastal
sections and the near shore waters from NE Mexico to SW Louisiana.
The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of the=20
Atlantic subtropical ridge extending across south Florida and into
the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh
SE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft, west of 90W and off northern=20
Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure across NE Mexico and S Texas is
expected to move slowly NE during the next couple of days, and=20
along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf=20
today or Wed. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive=20
for the formation of a short- lived tropical storm as this occurs.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW=20
Gulf Tue through Thu as this systems moves through the area.=20
Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will=20
sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf Tue=20
night through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the
eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure=20
settles in over the eastern Gulf.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection continues early this morning across
eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage and into western Haiti, while a
few showers are across the Cayman Islands. The pressure gradient=20
between the subtropical Atlantic ridge over the central Atlantic=20
and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing fresh to
strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central=20
Caribbean, south of 17N. The strongest winds and highest seas are
noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and=20
moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of=20
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to=20
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will generally=20
remain in place into this weekend. The pressure gradient across=20
the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-=20
central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and=20
seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to
strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly=20
through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night.=20
Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern=20
Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu
night, then will diminish through the weekend.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic,
extending from 1022 mb high pressure southeast of the Azores,
southwestward into the central Atlantic and then westward along
26N and across south Florida. This pattern is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of=20
23N and between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and=20
moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 67W.=20
South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and=20
seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far=20
east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present
north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will change=20
little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related=20
pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade=20
winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night=20
through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast=20
Florida to near 67W are occurring ahead of a surface trough.=20
These winds will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a=20
weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front=20
is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore=20
northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds=20
each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near=20
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.=20

$$
Stripling

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)