706
WTNT42 KNHC 171458
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 17 2025

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the large system is
not well-organized, with an elongated circulation
oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast containing a few
embedded swirls. The advisory center is a mean center of those
swirls, with any associated convection well east of the position due
to southwesterly shear. While it wouldn't appear so from
conventional satellite data, a recent scatterometer pass indicates
upwards of 40-kt winds present, generally northeast and southeast of
the center of circulation. Although the system is at best
marginally well defined, there is enough data to support an initial
intensity of 40 kt, and the depression is named Gabrielle.

Little strengthening is anticipated over the next 48 hours as
Gabrielle faces an unfavorable shear environment from an
upper-level trough and a possible center re-formation, and the
forecast intensity remains nearly steady through Friday. By this
weekend, a more conducive environment is anticipated, which should
allow for gradual intensification. Gabrielle is forecast to become
a hurricane by 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains
fairly similar to the previous forecast cycle, but it should be
noted that there remains considerable spread in the solutions and
overall forecast intensity confidence is low.

Gabrielle is well away from land and about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. The current estimated
motion is north-northwestward, but this is highly uncertain as the
center could be re-forming to the north. The system is forecast to
move northwestward to west-northwestward due to the subtropical
ridge for the next several days. While the forecast has been
adjusted to the north from the previous one, this is almost
exclusively due to the jump in the initial position. This is a
highly uncertain forecast until a better defined center forms.
Based on the recent trends, this system should pass well east and
north of the Windward and Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda
should monitor forecasts during the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 17.5N 46.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 19.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 20.8N 50.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 22.7N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 23.5N 56.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 24.7N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 27.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake

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