579=20
AXNT20 KNHC 070955 CCA
TWDAT=20
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Dec 07 2025
Corrected Gulf of America forecast
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A somewhat strong cold front is=20
forecast to move across the Gulf during the upcoming week,=20
followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building=20
seas. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off Veracruz=20
Mon evening along with seas peaking to around 11 ft (3.5 m). Winds=20
and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front becomes stationary=20
from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel while high=20
pressure settles across the central Gulf.=20
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at the website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!8tziRdPkoO-SibAG4VSN7sOS0_bxkLcJxwLAhXCHgf8M1gS2wERp8XrFhoLAjcCqg= Zb69JzkG-Gx-MTTHC1XhzSzUwA$ for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa=20
near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 05N18W and to 05N23W,=20
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N30W to 03N28W, and=20
northwestward from there to 05N45W and to near 08N54W. Scattered=20
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 07N=20
between 14W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm=20
north of the ITCZ between 31W-34W.
GULF OF AMERICA...Corrected
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on=20
upcoming gale conditions expected off Veracruz, Mexico.
A weak cold front extends across central Florida to offshore the
coast near Clearwater Beach and continues to 27N87W and to a weak
1011 mb low near 26N94W. A stationary front extends from the low=20
to 22N94W, where it begins to dissipate to near 19N95W. Light to=20
gentle winds are over most of the basin, except for northeast winds=20
of gentle to moderate speeds north of the boundary over the north-=20
central and NE Gulf sections. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft=20
across the area. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast mostly=20
low clouds, with embedded patches of light to moderate along and to=20
the north of the frontal boundary. Small patches of fog may be=20
present underneath this cloudiness.=20
For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are expected
today as the front weakens further and drifts back to the north.=20
A new and somewhat stronger cold front is expected to enter the NW=20
Gulf this evening and overtake the current front, while sweeping=20
across the basin into early next week. This will lead to fresh to=20
strong northwest to north winds and building seas in the wake of the=20
front. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off Veracruz=20
Mon evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front=20
stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida, and high=20
pressure settles across the central Gulf.=20
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is analyzed over the western Caribbean roughly
along 84W south of 18.5N to inland Honduras and Nicaragua. Gentle=20
to moderate trade winds are near the trough. Scattered showers and=20 thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm west of the trough from 16N=20
to 18.5N while isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm=20
east of the trough from 16N to 18.5N. An area of scattered showers=20
and isolated thunderstorms is east of Nicaragua roughly from 10N
to 14N between 79W and 82W. This activity remains under the=20
western periphery of a broad mid to upper-level ridge. Elsewhere=20
across the basin, atmospheric moisture remains quite limited with
the broad ridge aloft maintaining rather stable conditions, and=20
only allowing for small patches of moisture that may be accompanied
by isolated showers.=20
The pressure gradient between high pressure located north of the=20
basin and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh trade winds
over the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate=20
winds are over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Seas of 5=20
to 8 ft in an east swell are east of 80W, and seas of 3 to 5 ft=20
are west of 80W, except for slightly lowers seas of 2 to 4 ft=20
north 18N west of 85W.
For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between a weak=20
Atlantic ridge along 26N, north of the Greater Antilles, and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to=20
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and=20
eastern Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week. Strong
winds will pulse off NW Colombia tonight, along with locally=20
rough seas. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas=20
will prevail elsewhere. A persistent northeast to east swell will
support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and passages of the
Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a weakening cold
front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue, and linger
across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed.=20
High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of America by the
middle of the upcoming week, leading to strong winds and rough=20
seas in the south-central Caribbean late into the upcoming week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is analyzed from near 31N75W southwestward to inland=20
central Florida near Cocoa Beach. Fresh to locally strong
southwest to west winds are ahead of the front to near 54W and
north of 29N as indicated by recent scatterometer satellite data=20
passes. The scatterometer satellite data passes also indicate
fresh to strong northwest to north winds behind the front. Both=20
recent altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations
reveal seas of 5 to 7 ft behind the front, and seas of 7 to 10 ft
in west to northwest swell north of about 27N between 30W and=20
60W. To the east of the front, a frontal trough extends from near=20
31N36W southwestward to 28N48W and to near 25N58W. Satellite=20
imagery shows scattered to broken high cirrus clouds streaming=20 east-southeastward across the trough, with scattered to locally=20
broken low clouds underneath. Isolated small showers and=20
thunderstorms are seen north of 29N between 34W and 47W. Latest=20 scatterometer satellite data passes depict gentle to moderate=20
southwest winds east of the trough to near 28N and north of 27N.=20
The remainder of the Atlantic basin remains under the influence=20
of a ridge that is anchored by a 1024 mb high center present=20
just to the north of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh trade
winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic.=20
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.=20
Overcast to broken mostly mid and high-level clouds are being=20
steered northeastward by a robust jet stream branch over the far=20
eastern Atlantic southeast of a line from 20N16W to 13N34W,=20
southward over the ITCZ region and to near 05N. These clouds are=20
advecting to well inland West Africa.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front along=20
with its associated wind and sea conditions will shift eastward=20
today. The front will extend from near Bermuda to central Florida by=20
early this morning, then dissipate this afternoon. A complex low=20
pressure system and strong cold front will move into the=20
northwestern tropical Atlantic tonight through Mon, supporting=20
widespread fresh to near gale-force winds and building seas ahead of=20
and behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front will reach from=20
near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue morning,=20
then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed. Large=20
north swell will propagate through the regional waters Tue through=20
Wed and diminish Wed night.=20
$$
Aguirre
=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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