602
AXNT20 KNHC 181103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N20W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and to below the Equator at 34W
reaching to near 01S46.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W-26W, and
from 01S to 02N between 45W and the coast of Brazil. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
37W-41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1024 is centered between southeastern U.S. and
Bermuda, with a ridge extending west-southwestward to the central
Gulf. The gradient between it and lower pressure in the western
part of the Gulf and in Texas and Mexico is supporting moderate
to fresh return flow over the western Gulf waters and moderate
seas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds re north and west
of the Yucatan peninsula. An overnight altimeter satellite data
pass indicated seas of 3 to 4 ft with these winds. Slight higher
seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the Bay of Campeche, the SW Gulf and
the west-central Gulf. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the NW Gulf and
over the offshore waters of southwest Louisiana. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly return flow over
the western Gulf will continue into early Fri evening. Looking
ahead, low pressure that is currently over the High Plains region
will send a cold front to the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed
by fresh to near gale north to northeast winds expected Sat night
through Sun night. Gale conditions are possible offshore Tampico
on Sun and offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon and Sun night. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will pulse along and near the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from the afternoons and
into the morning hours in association with the Yucatan Peninsula
diurnal trough starting Thu. Mariners are urged to stay up to date
with the latest forecasts.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower
pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong
northeast to east winds in the south-central Caribbean and strong to
near-force northeast winds offshore Colombia as seen in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass across that part of the sea. In
addition, a ship reported northeast 25 kt winds at location 11N76W
around 04Z. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas over
these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades along with
moderate seas are in the north-central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas
are in the eastern part of the sea.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent. Isolated showers, with the trade wind flow are
present in the eastern part of the sea north of 12N and east of
68W. Similar showers are near the coast of Hispaniola and between
Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the gradient in place will maintain little
change with the trades through the end of the week, however, the
fresh to strong trades in the south-central part of the sea will
expand in coverage. Winds may pulse to near gale-force off
Colombia at nigh during this time. Fresh northeast winds will
pulse in the Windward Passage through Thu. Fresh to strong east to
southeast winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed
evening and continue through Sat night, while trades elsewhere
will generally remain moderate to fresh. Large north swell is
expected to impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the
Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu and likely subsiding on
Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force
extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to
the tropical Atlantic near 31N51W and continues southwestward to
26N63W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas.
A broad upper-level trough is over the western Atlantic. Satellite
imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front, east-southeast to a
line from 31N45W to 25N49W and to 22N60W. Overnight scatterometer
satellite data passes reveal moderate to fresh northeast to east
winds west of the front to near 76W and from 23N to 28N. To the
north, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 32N71W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 28N between 67W and 76W.
Seas are 8 to 12 ft behind the front in long-perid northwest
swell, except for higher seas of 10 to 15 ft north of 29N between
55W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and mostly
moderate seas are ahead of the cold front to 49W and north of 27W.

A trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 27N44W. No significant
convection is presently noted with this feature.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad
high pressure, with the associated gradient generally allowing for
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds southeast of a line
roughly from 26N35W to 20N50W and to the northern Leeward
Islands. Seas about 5 to 7 ft within this area. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and moderate seas are present.

Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about 33W.
Surface observations from the Cape Verde Islands are reporting dust.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
become a weakening stationary front from 25N55W to near 23N67W by
early this evening, then weaken and dissipate Thu. Fresh to
strong southwest winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N will
shift north of 31N this morning. Behind the front, large to very
large N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding east
of 55W north of 28N tonight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will propagate
southward reaching to near 20N on Thu, then shifting east of 55W
on Fri while subsiding. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are
expected for most of the offshore zones from this evening through
Sat night as a high pressure ridge initially builds westward near
27N before it shifts southeastward Sat through Sun night in
response to a frontal system that will be moving through the
southeastern U.S. A strong cold front with this system is expected
to push off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts on Sun, followed by
increasing NW winds and building seas.

$$
Aguirre

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