613
AXNT20 KNHC 221816
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Apr 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
northern Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 02N31W.
An ITCZ continues southwestward from 02N31W to 01N41W, then turns
northwestward to near the coast of Suriname. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is noted south of the monsoon
trough from 00N to 06N east of 21W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen near and up to 155 nm north of the ITCZ west of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms southeast of New Orleans in the north-central Gulf.
Otherwise, ridging remains over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the east-central and
southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds with 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will
gradually diminish today in the southeastern Gulf. High pressure
will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure
gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate
SE winds basin-wide by tonight, then prevailing through late
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of a cold front is creating scattered showers across
eastern Cuba and near the north coast of Hispaniola, including
the Windward Passage. Farther west, a surface trough is bringing
patchy showers in the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen in the lee of Cuba and near
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4
ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight as a
late-season cold front moves across Cuba, then dissipates along
the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight into Thu. The Atlantic
high pressure located north of the basin will weaken over the
next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient over the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result
in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31n50w to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 230 nm southeast of
this feature. To the south, a surface trough is causing scattered
showers east of the northern Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for more information.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft
seas are present behind the cold front, except gentle to moderate
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft off northeastern Florida. To the east,
gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate
north of 20N between 35W and cold front. For the remainder of the
Atlantic west of 35W, gentle with locally moderate ENE to E winds
and 4 to 5 ft seas exist.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through
tonight. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the
front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters. High
pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple
of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with
slight to moderate seas through the weekend, with the exception of
the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are
expected as a cold front clips the area on Sat

$$

Chan

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612
AXNT20 KNHC 221816
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Apr 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
northern Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 02N31W.
An ITCZ continues southwestward from 02N31W to 01N41W, then turns
northwestward to near the coast of Suriname. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is noted south of the monsoon
trough from 00N to 06N east of 21W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen near and up to 155 nm north of the ITCZ west of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms southeast of New Orleans in the north-central Gulf.
Otherwise, ridging remains over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the east-central and
southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds with 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will
gradually diminish today in the southeastern Gulf. High pressure
will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure
gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate
SE winds basin-wide by tonight, then prevailing through late
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of a cold front is creating scattered showers across
eastern Cuba and near the north coast of Hispaniola, including
the Windward Passage. Farther west, a surface trough is bringing
patchy showers in the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen in the lee of Cuba and near
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4
ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight as a
late-season cold front moves across Cuba, then dissipates along
the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight into Thu. The Atlantic
high pressure located north of the basin will weaken over the
next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient over the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result
in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31n50w to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 230 nm southeast of
this feature. To the south, a surface trough is causing scattered
showers east of the northern Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for more information.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft
seas are present behind the cold front, except gentle to moderate
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft off northeastern Florida. To the east,
gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate
north of 20N between 35W and cold front. For the remainder of the
Atlantic west of 35W, gentle with locally moderate ENE to E winds
and 4 to 5 ft seas exist.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through
tonight. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the
front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters. High
pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple
of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with
slight to moderate seas through the weekend, with the exception of
the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are
expected as a cold front clips the area on Sat

$$

Chan

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091
AXNT20 KNHC 222209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
near 14N16.5W then curves southwestward to 02.5N33W. ITCZ
continues southwestward from 02.5N33W to 01N38W to 07N56W and then
to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to
07N between 09W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
near and up to 150 nm within the ITCZ west of 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The remnants of the recent cold front can be seen in satellite
imagery this evening, in the form of a shearline, extending from
offshore the NW coast of Cuba near 23N84W to 24N89W to 27N94W.
Midday satellite scatterometer wind data showed convergent fresh
to strong E to SE winds to the northeast of this boundary, that
continue to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms within 200
nm NE of the shearline, and extend inland across the coasts of
Louisiana and southeast Texas. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these
winds. Otherwise, high pressure across the western Atlantic
extends a ridge southwestward over the Gulf. Gentle to moderate
SE to S winds with 3 to 5 ft prevail across the W and SW Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas along and just NE of
the shearline will gradually diminish tonight in the southeastern
and central Gulf. High pressure will then build across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient expected across
the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds basin-
wide Thu through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of an old cold front has become stationary across the
N and NW coast of Hispaniola, and is producing scattered showers
across eastern Cuba, along the north coast of Hispaniola, and
across interior Jamaica. Farther west, a surface trough is
bringing patchy showers in the northwestern basin. Moderate to
locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the lee
of Cuba and through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE
to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea, except seas to 5 ft along the NW coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected
through the Windward Passage and southwest of Cuba through
tonight as a late-season cold front stalls across eastern Cuba and
the N coast of Hispaniola along about 20N, then dissipates Thu.
The Atlantic high pressure located north of the basin will weaken
over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual
pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This
will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic cold front enters the area waters near 31N53W and
extends southwestward to 21N67W, then has become stationary to the
NW coast of Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring up to 300 nm E of the front, to the N of 25N, and
within 90 nm southeast of this feature elsewhere. Further south,
a surface trough is causing scattered showers east of the northern
Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 7 to 11
ft seas prevail N of the cold front, except gentle to moderate
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft off northeastern Florida to 75W. To
the east of the front, moderate S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
dominate north of 25N between 44W and cold front. For the
remainder of the Atlantic west of 36W, gentle with locally
moderate ENE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas exist. N of 20N and E
of 36W, N swell is producing seas of 7 to 12 ft, with new large N
swell poised to enter those waters and reinforce seas tonight and
Thu.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through
tonight, and stalls along about 20N to the north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola. Conditions will gradually improve late this week
as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters.
High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next
couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
with slight to moderate seas through the weekend, with the
exception of the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough
seas are expected as a cold front clips the area on Sat.

$$
Stripling

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242
AXNT20 KNHC 222209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
near 14N16.5W then curves southwestward to 02.5N33W. ITCZ
continues southwestward from 02.5N33W to 01N38W to 07N56W and then
to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to
07N between 09W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
near and up to 150 nm within the ITCZ west of 46W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The remnants of the recent cold front can be seen in satellite
imagery this evening, in the form of a shearline, extending from
offshore the NW coast of Cuba near 23N84W to 24N89W to 27N94W.
Midday satellite scatterometer wind data showed convergent fresh
to strong E to SE winds to the northeast of this boundary, that
continue to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms within 200
nm NE of the shearline, and extend inland across the coasts of
Louisiana and southeast Texas. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these
winds. Otherwise, high pressure across the western Atlantic
extends a ridge southwestward over the Gulf. Gentle to moderate
SE to S winds with 3 to 5 ft prevail across the W and SW Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas along and just NE of
the shearline will gradually diminish tonight in the southeastern
and central Gulf. High pressure will then build across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient expected across
the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds basin-
wide Thu through the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of an old cold front has become stationary across the
N and NW coast of Hispaniola, and is producing scattered showers
across eastern Cuba, along the north coast of Hispaniola, and
across interior Jamaica. Farther west, a surface trough is
bringing patchy showers in the northwestern basin. Moderate to
locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the lee
of Cuba and through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE
to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea, except seas to 5 ft along the NW coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected
through the Windward Passage and southwest of Cuba through
tonight as a late-season cold front stalls across eastern Cuba and
the N coast of Hispaniola along about 20N, then dissipates Thu.
The Atlantic high pressure located north of the basin will weaken
over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual
pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This
will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic cold front enters the area waters near 31N53W and
extends southwestward to 21N67W, then has become stationary to the
NW coast of Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring up to 300 nm E of the front, to the N of 25N, and
within 90 nm southeast of this feature elsewhere. Further south,
a surface trough is causing scattered showers east of the northern
Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 7 to 11
ft seas prevail N of the cold front, except gentle to moderate
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft off northeastern Florida to 75W. To
the east of the front, moderate S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
dominate north of 25N between 44W and cold front. For the
remainder of the Atlantic west of 36W, gentle with locally
moderate ENE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas exist. N of 20N and E
of 36W, N swell is producing seas of 7 to 12 ft, with new large N
swell poised to enter those waters and reinforce seas tonight and
Thu.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through
tonight, and stalls along about 20N to the north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola. Conditions will gradually improve late this week
as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters.
High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next
couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
with slight to moderate seas through the weekend, with the
exception of the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough
seas are expected as a cold front clips the area on Sat.

$$
Stripling

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388
AXNT20 KNHC 230429
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N35W to 01N38W to 01N51W. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon
trough and east of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Low-level convergence from western Cuba to SE Texas results in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over the
central Gulf waters. Dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of
90W and south of 26N, eastern Bay of Campeche and in the north-
central Gulf waters. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate
seas will persist in the SE Gulf through Thu night. High pressure
will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak
pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to
moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through late week.
The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and
the Cayman Islands, supporting a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The pressure gradient between this weakening front
and higher pressures to the north support fresh to strong NE winds
in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, as shown by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are found in the south-central and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight.
High pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next
couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across
the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a storm-force low pressure in the North
Atlantic to 31N51W and then to 23N57W, where it becomes a
stationary front to northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers are
noted near and ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally strong
N-NE winds and rough seas are occurring within behind this front.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are found under the ridge
between Florida and Bermuda.

In the NE Atlantic, a broad low pressure is producing large
northerly swell, supporting rough seas north of 27N and between
17W and 37W, along with moderate to locally fresh westerly winds.
Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas pf 5-8 ft are
present south of 23N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient prevails sustaining moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N51W to 23N58W, then stationary to eastern Cuba. Fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front
as it moves eastward through tonight. Conditions will gradually
improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls
over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will
weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh
westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as
another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

$$
Delgado

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389
AXNT20 KNHC 230429
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N35W to 01N38W to 01N51W. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon
trough and east of 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Low-level convergence from western Cuba to SE Texas results in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over the
central Gulf waters. Dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of
90W and south of 26N, eastern Bay of Campeche and in the north-
central Gulf waters. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate
seas will persist in the SE Gulf through Thu night. High pressure
will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak
pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to
moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through late week.
The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and
the Cayman Islands, supporting a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The pressure gradient between this weakening front
and higher pressures to the north support fresh to strong NE winds
in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, as shown by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft
are found in the south-central and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected
across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight.
High pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next
couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across
the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a storm-force low pressure in the North
Atlantic to 31N51W and then to 23N57W, where it becomes a
stationary front to northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers are
noted near and ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally strong
N-NE winds and rough seas are occurring within behind this front.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are found under the ridge
between Florida and Bermuda.

In the NE Atlantic, a broad low pressure is producing large
northerly swell, supporting rough seas north of 27N and between
17W and 37W, along with moderate to locally fresh westerly winds.
Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas pf 5-8 ft are
present south of 23N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure
gradient prevails sustaining moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N51W to 23N58W, then stationary to eastern Cuba. Fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front
as it moves eastward through tonight. Conditions will gradually
improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls
over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will
weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh
westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as
another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

$$
Delgado

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556
AXNT20 KNHC 230831
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends
southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ extends from 01N30W to 01N50W.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed south
of the monsoon trough and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting gentle to
moderate winds across the gulf waters. With these winds, seas are
in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through. The exception will be off the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to
fresh during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are over the
Windward passage and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 4-5 ft, are found off the coast of Colombia.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than
usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend.
This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N48W to 24N56W, then stationary
to eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, are
within 300 nm west of the front, with seas in the 6-9 ft range.
Elsewhere W of the front, light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-6
ft prevail. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near
26N32W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Northerly swell
is bringing rough seas of 8-10 ft to the waters N of 27N between
18W and 35W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve
late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls over the
SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken
over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh
westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as
another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

$$
AL

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555
AXNT20 KNHC 230831
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends
southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ extends from 01N30W to 01N50W.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed south
of the monsoon trough and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting gentle to
moderate winds across the gulf waters. With these winds, seas are
in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through. The exception will be off the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to
fresh during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are over the
Windward passage and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 4-5 ft, are found off the coast of Colombia.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than
usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend.
This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N48W to 24N56W, then stationary
to eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, are
within 300 nm west of the front, with seas in the 6-9 ft range.
Elsewhere W of the front, light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-6
ft prevail. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near
26N32W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Northerly swell
is bringing rough seas of 8-10 ft to the waters N of 27N between
18W and 35W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve
late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls over the
SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken
over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh
westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as
another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

$$
AL

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929
AXNT20 KNHC 231806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
|1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A Monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guiana, then curves southwestward from 11N15W and extends
southwestward to 01N30W. An ITCZ continues from 01N30W to near
01N28W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
observed south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 04N between 10W
and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 80
nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 30W, and west of 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A deep-layer trough extends southwestward from Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Divergent flow east of this feature is enhancing
scattered heavy showers with intense thunderstorms and gusty winds
at the southeastern Gulf. At the surface, a ridge runs
southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area. This ridge provides
moderate to fresh southeast winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the
eastern Gulf. Gentle SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will prevail across the Gulf region,
with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This
will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
Gulf-wide through the weekend. The exception will be off the
Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate
winds to fresh during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a
stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Patchy
showers are occurring near Jamaica and crab. Moderate to fresh
ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft are found at the lee of Cuba
and near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than
usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend.
This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1010 mb low near 33N45W
across 31N46W to 24N55W, then continues as a stationary front to
Hispaniola. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either
side of this boundary. A surface trough runs southwestward from
21N53W to near the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are
found near the feature. Convergent trade winds are triggering
scattered heavy showers near the coast of French Guiana. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found along and
up to 100 nm northwest of the front, including the Great Bahama
Bank. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
present north of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to
moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve
late this week as the front weakens and eventually dissipates
over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will
weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to
locally westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on
Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

$$

Chan

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123
AXNT20 KNHC 231806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
|1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A Monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guiana, then curves southwestward from 11N15W and extends
southwestward to 01N30W. An ITCZ continues from 01N30W to near
01N28W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
observed south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 04N between 10W
and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 80
nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 30W, and west of 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A deep-layer trough extends southwestward from Louisiana to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Divergent flow east of this feature is enhancing
scattered heavy showers with intense thunderstorms and gusty winds
at the southeastern Gulf. At the surface, a ridge runs
southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area. This ridge provides
moderate to fresh southeast winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the
eastern Gulf. Gentle SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will prevail across the Gulf region,
with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This
will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
Gulf-wide through the weekend. The exception will be off the
Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate
winds to fresh during the evenings.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a
stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Patchy
showers are occurring near Jamaica and crab. Moderate to fresh
ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft are found at the lee of Cuba
and near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than
usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend.
This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1010 mb low near 33N45W
across 31N46W to 24N55W, then continues as a stationary front to
Hispaniola. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either
side of this boundary. A surface trough runs southwestward from
21N53W to near the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are
found near the feature. Convergent trade winds are triggering
scattered heavy showers near the coast of French Guiana. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found along and
up to 100 nm northwest of the front, including the Great Bahama
Bank. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
present north of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to
moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve
late this week as the front weakens and eventually dissipates
over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will
weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the
weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to
locally westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on
Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat.

$$

Chan

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592
AXNT20 KNHC 232319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Africa near 10N15W to 04N20W and to 01N26.5W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to south of the Equator near 28W and continues to
04S35W and northwestward to 02S43W to the Equator at 50W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is south of the monsoon trough
from 00N to 05N between 10W-19W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 30 nm of the trough between 25W-29W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An mid to upper level trough extends from the southeastern U.S.
southwestward to 26N88W and to the Yucatan Peninsula. An amplifying
upper-level shortwave is passing through southeastern Gulf.
Upper-level dynamics associated with the trough is supporting
an area of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern
Gulf south of 26N between 82W and 86W moving generally east-southeastward,
and newly developed shower and thunderstorm activity over the south-
central Gulf from 23N to 25N between 87W and 90W. This activity
is accompanied by heavy rain reducing visibility and gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. The strongest cells appear to be
approaching the northwest portion of Cuba. Otherwise, relatively
weak high pressure is over the eastern and central Gulf portions.
The related gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast
winds over the eastern part of the basin, and gentle to moderate
southeast winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
over the eastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate
seas basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next
week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the
evenings. The aforementioned area of numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf will continue east-
southeastward through early Fri. The activity over the south-
central Gulf will move to the southeast to south into early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a
stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Isolated
showers are near the trough, however, clusters of moderate
convection are north of 20N west of 82W. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are in the lee of Cuba and
near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of
the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to
25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and
to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends
from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft
seas are west of the front to near 55W and north of 26N. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present north
of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to moderate NE to
SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly
stationary just N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The
remnant moisture associated with the frontal boundary will lift
northward as a trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop
along the trough axis east of the Bahamas on Sun. This will
support gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas
across most of the forecast area through the weekend. The
exception will be over the northeast waters, where fresh to
locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are expected
beginning on Fri as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun.

$$
Aguirre

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591
AXNT20 KNHC 232319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Africa near 10N15W to 04N20W and to 01N26.5W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to south of the Equator near 28W and continues to
04S35W and northwestward to 02S43W to the Equator at 50W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is south of the monsoon trough
from 00N to 05N between 10W-19W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 30 nm of the trough between 25W-29W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An mid to upper level trough extends from the southeastern U.S.
southwestward to 26N88W and to the Yucatan Peninsula. An amplifying
upper-level shortwave is passing through southeastern Gulf.
Upper-level dynamics associated with the trough is supporting
an area of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern
Gulf south of 26N between 82W and 86W moving generally east-southeastward,
and newly developed shower and thunderstorm activity over the south-
central Gulf from 23N to 25N between 87W and 90W. This activity
is accompanied by heavy rain reducing visibility and gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. The strongest cells appear to be
approaching the northwest portion of Cuba. Otherwise, relatively
weak high pressure is over the eastern and central Gulf portions.
The related gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast
winds over the eastern part of the basin, and gentle to moderate
southeast winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
over the eastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate
seas basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next
week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the
evenings. The aforementioned area of numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf will continue east-
southeastward through early Fri. The activity over the south-
central Gulf will move to the southeast to south into early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a
stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Isolated
showers are near the trough, however, clusters of moderate
convection are north of 20N west of 82W. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are in the lee of Cuba and
near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of
the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to
25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and
to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends
from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft
seas are west of the front to near 55W and north of 26N. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present north
of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to moderate NE to
SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly
stationary just N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The
remnant moisture associated with the frontal boundary will lift
northward as a trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop
along the trough axis east of the Bahamas on Sun. This will
support gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas
across most of the forecast area through the weekend. The
exception will be over the northeast waters, where fresh to
locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are expected
beginning on Fri as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun.

$$
Aguirre

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360
AXNT20 KNHC 232342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Africa near 10N15W to 04N20W and to 01N26.5W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to south of the Equator near 28W and continues to
04S35W and northwestward to 02S43W to the Equator at 50W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is south of the monsoon trough
from 00N to 05N between 10W-19W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 30 nm of the trough between 25W-29W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An mid to upper-level trough extends from the southeastern U.S.
southwestward to 26N88W and to the Yucatan Peninsula while an
amplifying upper-level shortwave trough is moving through its
southern portion across the southeastern Gulf. Upper-level dynamics
associated with the trough is supporting an area of numerous showers
and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf south of 26N between
82W and 86W moving generally east-southeastward, and newly developed
shower and thunderstorm activity over the south-central Gulf from
23N to 25N between 87W and 90W. This activity is accompanied by
heavy rainfall reducing visibility and is attendant by gusty winds
producing locally rough seas. The strongest cells appear to be
approaching the northwest portion of Cuba. Otherwise, relatively
weak high pressure is over the eastern and central Gulf portions.
The related gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast
winds over the eastern part of the basin, and gentle to moderate
southeast winds over the rest of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over
the eastern Gulf and 2 to 4 ft over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate
seas basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next
week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the
evenings. The aforementioned area of numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf will continue east-
southeastward through early Fri. The activity over the south-
central Gulf will move southeast to south into early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a
stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Isolated
showers are near the trough, however, clusters of moderate
convection are north of 20N west of 82W. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are in the lee of Cuba and
near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of
the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to
25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and
to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends
from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft
seas are west of the front to near 55W and north of 26N. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present north of 26N
between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to moderate northeast to
southeast winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly
stationary just north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The
remnant moisture associated with the frontal boundary will lift
northward as a trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along
the trough axis east of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle
to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the
forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be over the
northeast waters, where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and
rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front clips
the region by late Sat into Sun.

$$
Aguirre

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861
AXNT20 KNHC 240359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N22W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 05N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are seen over the SE Gulf waters, especially close
to the coast of Cuba. Generally dry conditions are noted
elsewhere. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
found in the eastern Bay of Campeche and SE Gulf. However,
mariners may experience stronger gusts associated with the
stronger convection. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Satellite images indicate that smoke from agricultural fires in SE
Mexico is affecting the SW Gulf waters. Mariners may experience
diminished visibility in the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf region,
with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This
will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next week.
The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in an area of showers and thunderstorms currently located
over the far SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, which is moving
eastward tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of
18N due to a stationary front draped across Hispaniola and
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica and divergence aloft. Meanwhile,
drier weather conditions evident in the rest of the basin. The
pressure gradient between a weak ridge to the north of the islands
and the frontal boundary supports fresh to locally strong NE-E
winds and moderate seas in the Windward Passage. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found in the lee
of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will weaken
over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a low pressure near the Azores to
31N42W and to 26N51W, followed by a stationary front to
Hispaniola. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present ahead of
the front to 31W and north of 27N. Rough seas are noted behind the
front to 51W and north of 27N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are evident south of 25N and west of 60W.
The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated
by a broad subtropical ridge.

The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a 1020
mb high pressure system near 27N30W. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support moderate
to fresh northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft from 08N to 27N and
east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of
the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to
25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and
to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends
from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N41W to 25N50W where it becomes a stationary front to
Hispaniola near 19N69W. The front will remain nearly stationary
just N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The remnant moisture
associated with the frontal boundary will lift northward as a
trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along the trough
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are
expected beginning on Fri as another cold front clips the region
by late Sat into Sun.

$$
Delgado

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862
AXNT20 KNHC 240359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N22W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 05N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are seen over the SE Gulf waters, especially close
to the coast of Cuba. Generally dry conditions are noted
elsewhere. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
found in the eastern Bay of Campeche and SE Gulf. However,
mariners may experience stronger gusts associated with the
stronger convection. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Satellite images indicate that smoke from agricultural fires in SE
Mexico is affecting the SW Gulf waters. Mariners may experience
diminished visibility in the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf region,
with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This
will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next week.
The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in an area of showers and thunderstorms currently located
over the far SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, which is moving
eastward tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of
18N due to a stationary front draped across Hispaniola and
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica and divergence aloft. Meanwhile,
drier weather conditions evident in the rest of the basin. The
pressure gradient between a weak ridge to the north of the islands
and the frontal boundary supports fresh to locally strong NE-E
winds and moderate seas in the Windward Passage. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found in the lee
of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will weaken
over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a low pressure near the Azores to
31N42W and to 26N51W, followed by a stationary front to
Hispaniola. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present ahead of
the front to 31W and north of 27N. Rough seas are noted behind the
front to 51W and north of 27N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are evident south of 25N and west of 60W.
The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated
by a broad subtropical ridge.

The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a 1020
mb high pressure system near 27N30W. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support moderate
to fresh northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft from 08N to 27N and
east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of
the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to
25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and
to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends
from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N41W to 25N50W where it becomes a stationary front to
Hispaniola near 19N69W. The front will remain nearly stationary
just N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The remnant moisture
associated with the frontal boundary will lift northward as a
trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along the trough
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are
expected beginning on Fri as another cold front clips the region
by late Sat into Sun.

$$
Delgado

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749
AXNT20 KNHC 241034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N26W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N26W to 02S40W to 00S50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 10N between 06W
and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08S to 04N between
25W and 38W, and from 02S to 12N W of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered to isolated showers continue to move eastward away from
the Florida Straits this morning while dense fog was repored over
the NW Gulf offshore waters. A 1019 mb high NE of the northern
Bahamas extends a ridge across Florida and into the western Gulf.
A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, satellite
images indicate that smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico
is affecting the SW Gulf waters. Mariners may experience
diminished visibility in the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through Mon. The exception will be off the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to
fresh during the evenings. Southeasterly winds are forecast to
reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of Gulf Mon
night into mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the lee
side of central and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage
due to the tail of a dissipating stationary front that extends
across Hispaniola to the offshore waters of southern Cuba.
Otherwise, a 1019 mb high is NE of the northern Bahamas and is
supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire
basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over
the central and eastern Caribbean Mon night through mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N39W to 26N47W where it becomes
a dissipating stationary front to Hispaniola near 19N69W. The
front is supporting scattered showers in the Great Bahama Bank
while an area of showers continue to migrate from the Florida
Straits to the northern Bahamas. Between the front and the areas
of showers is a 1019 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas, which is
supporting moderate or lighter E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas across the SW N Atlantic waters. Another 1019 mb
high is E of the front over the E subtropical Atlantic waters,
which is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front
to 30W and N of 26N. Seas with these winds are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate
to fresh NNE winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands,
and the coast of NW Africa with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate today and the remnant moisture will lift northward as a
trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along the trough
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are
expected beginning today as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun.

$$
Ramos

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748
AXNT20 KNHC 241034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N26W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N26W to 02S40W to 00S50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 10N between 06W
and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08S to 04N between
25W and 38W, and from 02S to 12N W of 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered to isolated showers continue to move eastward away from
the Florida Straits this morning while dense fog was repored over
the NW Gulf offshore waters. A 1019 mb high NE of the northern
Bahamas extends a ridge across Florida and into the western Gulf.
A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, satellite
images indicate that smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico
is affecting the SW Gulf waters. Mariners may experience
diminished visibility in the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through Mon. The exception will be off the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to
fresh during the evenings. Southeasterly winds are forecast to
reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of Gulf Mon
night into mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the lee
side of central and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage
due to the tail of a dissipating stationary front that extends
across Hispaniola to the offshore waters of southern Cuba.
Otherwise, a 1019 mb high is NE of the northern Bahamas and is
supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
basin-wide.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire
basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over
the central and eastern Caribbean Mon night through mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N39W to 26N47W where it becomes
a dissipating stationary front to Hispaniola near 19N69W. The
front is supporting scattered showers in the Great Bahama Bank
while an area of showers continue to migrate from the Florida
Straits to the northern Bahamas. Between the front and the areas
of showers is a 1019 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas, which is
supporting moderate or lighter E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas across the SW N Atlantic waters. Another 1019 mb
high is E of the front over the E subtropical Atlantic waters,
which is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front
to 30W and N of 26N. Seas with these winds are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate
to fresh NNE winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands,
and the coast of NW Africa with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate today and the remnant moisture will lift northward as a
trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along the trough
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are
expected beginning today as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun.

$$
Ramos

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610
AXNT20 KNHC 241703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then curves
southwestward to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S36W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
02N to 07N and east of 15W. Numerous moderate convection is from
07S to 02S between 23W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move
eastward into the Florida Straits. A 1017 mb high NE of the
northern Bahamas extends a ridge across Florida and into the
central Gulf. A weak pressure gradient over the region is
supporting gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through Mon. The exception will be off the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to
fresh during the evenings. Southeasterly winds are forecast to
reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of Gulf Mon
night into mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the lee side of
central Cuba, and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage due
to a surface trough over the area. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high is
NE of the northern Bahamas and is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas basin- wide.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming
weekend. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual
pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across
the entire basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon night through
mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed
from 24N53W to 21N70W to 22N78W. The trough is supporting
scattered showers in the Great Bahama Bank while an area of
showers and thunderstorms continue to migrate from the Florida
Straits to the northern Bahamas. Between the trough and the areas
of showers is a 1017 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas, which is
supporting moderate or lighter NE to E winds and slight to
moderate seas across the SW N Atlantic waters. A weakening cold
front extends from 31N39W and extends to 28.5N45W. East of this
front, a 1021 mb high is centered near 27N26W. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh
SW winds ahead of the front to 40W and N of 25N. Seas with these
winds are 5 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the
Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and the coast of NW Africa with
moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will lift
northward this weekend. A weak low may develop along the trough
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are
expected beginning today as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun. A third cold front will enter the waters off
NE Florida by Sun night, and extend from 31N68W to South Florida
by Mon night.

$$
KRV

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611
AXNT20 KNHC 241703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then curves
southwestward to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S36W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
02N to 07N and east of 15W. Numerous moderate convection is from
07S to 02S between 23W and 36W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move
eastward into the Florida Straits. A 1017 mb high NE of the
northern Bahamas extends a ridge across Florida and into the
central Gulf. A weak pressure gradient over the region is
supporting gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area.
This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through Mon. The exception will be off the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to
fresh during the evenings. Southeasterly winds are forecast to
reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of Gulf Mon
night into mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the lee side of
central Cuba, and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage due
to a surface trough over the area. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high is
NE of the northern Bahamas and is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds and slight to moderate seas basin- wide.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will
weaken over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming
weekend. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual
pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across
the entire basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon night through
mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed
from 24N53W to 21N70W to 22N78W. The trough is supporting
scattered showers in the Great Bahama Bank while an area of
showers and thunderstorms continue to migrate from the Florida
Straits to the northern Bahamas. Between the trough and the areas
of showers is a 1017 mb high NE of the northern Bahamas, which is
supporting moderate or lighter NE to E winds and slight to
moderate seas across the SW N Atlantic waters. A weakening cold
front extends from 31N39W and extends to 28.5N45W. East of this
front, a 1021 mb high is centered near 27N26W. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh
SW winds ahead of the front to 40W and N of 25N. Seas with these
winds are 5 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the
Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and the coast of NW Africa with
moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will lift
northward this weekend. A weak low may develop along the trough
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are
expected beginning today as another cold front clips the region by
late Sat into Sun. A third cold front will enter the waters off
NE Florida by Sun night, and extend from 31N68W to South Florida
by Mon night.

$$
KRV

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235
AXNT20 KNHC 242300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and
continues southwestward to south of the Equator at 19W and
to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S30W and to
04S36W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm
south of the ITCZ between 30W-35W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 25W-27W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
25.5W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak high pressure ridge extends from the western
Atlantic westward across the northern Gulf coast. The associated
pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast
winds across the basin, except for mostly moderate southeast
winds over the far western Gulf and in the central Bay of
Campeche. Latest buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite
data reveal seas of 3 to 4 ft over the basin.

Isolated showers are over the western part of the Straits of
Florida.

For the forecast, the interaction between the high pressure ridge
and a coastal trough that is just offshore Mexico from near
Tampico to Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin this weekend into early next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through the middle of
the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the lee side of
central Cuba, and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage due
to a surface trough over the area. A rather weak pressure
gradient is allowing for mostly gentle east to southeast winds
across the basin, including offshore Colombia. Winds are
southeast to south in direction west of about 79W. Seas
throughout are about 2 to 4 ft, including in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Scattered moderate convection is evident north of Jamaica
between 75W and 78W, including over some sections of eastern
Cuba. Similar activity is over some sections of central and
western Cuba, and just offshore western Cuba to the waters near
the Isle of Youth. Isolated showers are over the northern part of
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough,
currently located N of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba
lifts northward during the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern
will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the
Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin. Winds
are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through midweek as high pressure
builds again north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed
from near 22N56W to 21N69W and west-northwest to 23N79W. Aloft,
a rather vigorous shortwave trough is just east of the Florida
peninsula as seen in water vapor imagery. Divergence east of the
trough is helping to sustain a large area of moderate rain, with
embedded numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms that covers
the waters south of 28N and between 66W and 77W. A weak 1017 mb
high is present northeast of the northern Bahamas near 28N69W.
The associated gradient is supporting moderate or lighter
northeast to east winds and slight to moderate seas over the
western half of the basin.

A dissipating cold front extends from near 31N36W southwest
to 27N48W. A 1020 mb high is analyzed to the southeast of the
front at 27N26W. The pressure gradient between these features is
supporting moderate to fresh southwest winds east of the front
to near 30W and north of 25N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10
ft primarily in northeast swell. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and along
the coast of NW Africa along with moderate seas. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
lift northward this weekend. Weal low pressure may develop along
the trough axis east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sat, and
move eastward through Sun before dissipating. This will support
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most
of the forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be
over the NE waters where fresh to locally strong westerly winds
and rough seas are expected beginning late this afternoon as
another cold front clips the region by late Sat into Sun. A third
cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night,
and extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night.

$$
Aguirre

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234
AXNT20 KNHC 242300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and
continues southwestward to south of the Equator at 19W and
to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S30W and to
04S36W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm
south of the ITCZ between 30W-35W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 25W-27W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
25.5W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak high pressure ridge extends from the western
Atlantic westward across the northern Gulf coast. The associated
pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast
winds across the basin, except for mostly moderate southeast
winds over the far western Gulf and in the central Bay of
Campeche. Latest buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite
data reveal seas of 3 to 4 ft over the basin.

Isolated showers are over the western part of the Straits of
Florida.

For the forecast, the interaction between the high pressure ridge
and a coastal trough that is just offshore Mexico from near
Tampico to Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin this weekend into early next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through the middle of
the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the lee side of
central Cuba, and eastern Cuba as well as the Windward Passage due
to a surface trough over the area. A rather weak pressure
gradient is allowing for mostly gentle east to southeast winds
across the basin, including offshore Colombia. Winds are
southeast to south in direction west of about 79W. Seas
throughout are about 2 to 4 ft, including in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Scattered moderate convection is evident north of Jamaica
between 75W and 78W, including over some sections of eastern
Cuba. Similar activity is over some sections of central and
western Cuba, and just offshore western Cuba to the waters near
the Isle of Youth. Isolated showers are over the northern part of
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough,
currently located N of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba
lifts northward during the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern
will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the
Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin. Winds
are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through midweek as high pressure
builds again north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed
from near 22N56W to 21N69W and west-northwest to 23N79W. Aloft,
a rather vigorous shortwave trough is just east of the Florida
peninsula as seen in water vapor imagery. Divergence east of the
trough is helping to sustain a large area of moderate rain, with
embedded numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms that covers
the waters south of 28N and between 66W and 77W. A weak 1017 mb
high is present northeast of the northern Bahamas near 28N69W.
The associated gradient is supporting moderate or lighter
northeast to east winds and slight to moderate seas over the
western half of the basin.

A dissipating cold front extends from near 31N36W southwest
to 27N48W. A 1020 mb high is analyzed to the southeast of the
front at 27N26W. The pressure gradient between these features is
supporting moderate to fresh southwest winds east of the front
to near 30W and north of 25N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10
ft primarily in northeast swell. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and along
the coast of NW Africa along with moderate seas. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
lift northward this weekend. Weal low pressure may develop along
the trough axis east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sat, and
move eastward through Sun before dissipating. This will support
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most
of the forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be
over the NE waters where fresh to locally strong westerly winds
and rough seas are expected beginning late this afternoon as
another cold front clips the region by late Sat into Sun. A third
cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night,
and extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night.

$$
Aguirre

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949
AXNT20 KNHC 242313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and
continues southwestward to south of the Equator at 19W and
to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S30W and to
04S36W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm
south of the ITCZ between 30W-35W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 25W-27W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
25.5W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak high pressure ridge extends from the western
Atlantic westward across the northern Gulf coast. The associated
pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast
winds across the basin, except for mostly moderate southeast
winds over the far western Gulf and in the central Bay of
Campeche. Latest buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite
data reveal seas of 3 to 4 ft over the basin.

Isolated showers are over the western part of the Straits of
Florida.

For the forecast, the interaction between the high pressure ridge
and a coastal trough that is just offshore Mexico from near
Tampico to Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin this weekend into early next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through the middle of
the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for mostly gentle east
to southeast winds across the basin, including offshore Colombia.
Winds are southeast to south in direction west of about 79W. Seas
throughout are about 2 to 4 ft, including in the Gulf of
Honduras.

Scattered moderate convection is evident north of Jamaica
between 75W and 78W, including over some sections of eastern
Cuba. Similar activity is over some sections of central and
western Cuba, and just offshore western Cuba to the waters near
the Isle of Youth. Isolated showers are over the northern part of
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough,
currently located N of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba
lifts northward during the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern
will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the
Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin. Winds
are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through midweek as high pressure
builds again north of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed
from near 22N56W to 21N69W and west-northwestward to 23N79W. Aloft,
a rather vigorous shortwave trough is just east of the Florida
peninsula as seen in water vapor imagery. Divergence east of the
trough is helping to sustain a large area of moderate rain, with
embedded numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms that covers
the waters south of 28N and between 66W and 77W. A weak 1017 mb
high is analyzed northeast of the northern Bahamas near 28N69W.
The associated gradient is supporting moderate or lighter
northeast to east winds, and slight to moderate seas over the
western half of the basin.

A dissipating cold front extends from near 31N36W southwest
to 27N48W. A 1020 mb high is analyzed to the southeast of the
front near 27N26W. The pressure gradient between these two features
is supporting moderate to fresh southwest winds east of the front
to near 30W and north of 25N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10
ft primarily in northeast swell. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and along
the coast of NW Africa along with moderate seas. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
lift northward this weekend. Weal low pressure may develop along
the trough axis east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sat, and
move eastward through Sun before dissipating. This will support
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most
of the forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be
over the NE waters where fresh to locally strong westerly winds
and rough seas are expected beginning late this afternoon as
another cold front clips the region by late Sat into Sun. A third
cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night,
and extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night.

$$
Aguirre

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600
AXNT20 KNHC 250436
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and extends
to 0.5N23W. The ITCZ continues from 0.5N23W to south of the
equator at 24W and to 04S38W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted from 08S to the equator between 25W and
36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 07N
between 11W and 17W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Locally fresh NE winds are noted just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula as a surface trough develops in the region. Otherwise,
weak ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to
locally moderate E to SE winds over the basin. Recent buoy and
altimeter satellite data show 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the
Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending from southeast to northwest Cuba is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the lee of Cuba
and through the Windward Passage. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the
Caribbean. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin, as noticed on
recent buoy and altimeter satellite data.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the
aforementioned trough lifts NE during the weekend before
dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker
than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon,
resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of
Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night
through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to
fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through
mid-week as the pressure gradient builds between a developing
trough NE of the southern Bahamas and high pressure W of the
Canary Islands extending a ridge SW to the NE Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extending from southeastern Cuba to 22.5N69.5W is
supporting scattered moderate convection, mainly off the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic. Gusty and erratic winds and
building seas can be expected near thunderstorms. Weak ridging is
noted to the north of this feature over the Bahamas and off the
coast of Florida, supporting moderate or weaker winds and 2 to 4
ft seas. Farther east, an increasing pressure gradient between a
1018 mb high centered near 28N49.5W and cold fronts passing to the
north is supporting fresh to strong W winds in the central
Atlantic, mainly north of 30N between 50W and 65W. Altimeter and
buoy data denote 7 to 9 ft seas in this region. Elsewhere, a
surface trough extends from 31N36W to 26N48W and moderate N to NW
winds are noted to the north. Residual rough seas of 8 to 9 ft
prevail in this region. Off the coast of NW Africa, a cold front
progressing southward is supporting fresh to strong NW winds and 8
to 10 ft seas east of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and locally rough seas to 8 ft are noted farther south to
near the Cape Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
from southeast Cuba through the southern Bahamas is forecast to
lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas on
Sat before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and
rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through Sat
evening as a cold front clips the region late Sat into early Sun.
A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida
by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night,
and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before dissipating Wed
night.

$$
ADAMS

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661
AXNT20 KNHC 250436
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and extends
to 0.5N23W. The ITCZ continues from 0.5N23W to south of the
equator at 24W and to 04S38W. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted from 08S to the equator between 25W and
36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 07N
between 11W and 17W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Locally fresh NE winds are noted just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula as a surface trough develops in the region. Otherwise,
weak ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to
locally moderate E to SE winds over the basin. Recent buoy and
altimeter satellite data show 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the
Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending from southeast to northwest Cuba is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the lee of Cuba
and through the Windward Passage. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the
Caribbean. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin, as noticed on
recent buoy and altimeter satellite data.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the
aforementioned trough lifts NE during the weekend before
dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker
than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon,
resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of
Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night
through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to
fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through
mid-week as the pressure gradient builds between a developing
trough NE of the southern Bahamas and high pressure W of the
Canary Islands extending a ridge SW to the NE Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extending from southeastern Cuba to 22.5N69.5W is
supporting scattered moderate convection, mainly off the northern
coast of the Dominican Republic. Gusty and erratic winds and
building seas can be expected near thunderstorms. Weak ridging is
noted to the north of this feature over the Bahamas and off the
coast of Florida, supporting moderate or weaker winds and 2 to 4
ft seas. Farther east, an increasing pressure gradient between a
1018 mb high centered near 28N49.5W and cold fronts passing to the
north is supporting fresh to strong W winds in the central
Atlantic, mainly north of 30N between 50W and 65W. Altimeter and
buoy data denote 7 to 9 ft seas in this region. Elsewhere, a
surface trough extends from 31N36W to 26N48W and moderate N to NW
winds are noted to the north. Residual rough seas of 8 to 9 ft
prevail in this region. Off the coast of NW Africa, a cold front
progressing southward is supporting fresh to strong NW winds and 8
to 10 ft seas east of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and locally rough seas to 8 ft are noted farther south to
near the Cape Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
from southeast Cuba through the southern Bahamas is forecast to
lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas on
Sat before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and
rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through Sat
evening as a cold front clips the region late Sat into early Sun.
A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida
by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night,
and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before dissipating Wed
night.

$$
ADAMS

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634
AXNT20 KNHC 251006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends SW
to 03N18W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from 00N24W to south of
the equator at 30W and to 02S40W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 02S to 06N between 00W and 15W, and from
08S to 02N between 22W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle
to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W and over the northern Yucatan
Peninsula adjacent waters. Recent buoy data continue to show 2 to
4 ft seas prevail over the Gulf. Otherwise, dense fog is being
reported over the NW and central Gulf waters

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft
prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the trough,
currently located NE of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage
lifts NE during the weekend before dissipating on Mon. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire
basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will
reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are
forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as the pressure
gradient builds between a developing trough NE of the southern
Bahamas and high pressure W of the Canary Islands extending a
ridge SW to the NE Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture across the eastern Bahama Bank, Windward
Passage, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico adjacent waters along with a
short-wave trough aloft continue to fuel showers and tstms in
connection with a surface trough, remnants of a frontal
boundary that extends from 23N66W and across the Windward Passage.
Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of
convection associated with the trough are likely. The remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge
anchored by a pair of 1019 mb highs W of the Canary Islands.
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas are ongoing over
the NE offshores in connection with an approaching cold front.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between the W coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics all the way to the
Lesser Antilles offshores. Seas are moderate.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough is forecast to
lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas today
before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and
rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through this
evening as a cold front clips the region late today into early
Sun. A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE
Florida by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon
night, and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before
dissipating Wed night.

$$
Ramos

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633
AXNT20 KNHC 251006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends SW
to 03N18W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from 00N24W to south of
the equator at 30W and to 02S40W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 02S to 06N between 00W and 15W, and from
08S to 02N between 22W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle
to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W and over the northern Yucatan
Peninsula adjacent waters. Recent buoy data continue to show 2 to
4 ft seas prevail over the Gulf. Otherwise, dense fog is being
reported over the NW and central Gulf waters

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft
prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the trough,
currently located NE of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage
lifts NE during the weekend before dissipating on Mon. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire
basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will
reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are
forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as the pressure
gradient builds between a developing trough NE of the southern
Bahamas and high pressure W of the Canary Islands extending a
ridge SW to the NE Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture across the eastern Bahama Bank, Windward
Passage, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico adjacent waters along with a
short-wave trough aloft continue to fuel showers and tstms in
connection with a surface trough, remnants of a frontal
boundary that extends from 23N66W and across the Windward Passage.
Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of
convection associated with the trough are likely. The remaining
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge
anchored by a pair of 1019 mb highs W of the Canary Islands.
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas are ongoing over
the NE offshores in connection with an approaching cold front.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between the W coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics all the way to the
Lesser Antilles offshores. Seas are moderate.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough is forecast to
lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas today
before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and
rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through this
evening as a cold front clips the region late today into early
Sun. A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE
Florida by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon
night, and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before
dissipating Wed night.

$$
Ramos

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176
AXNT20 KNHC 251648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1647 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends SW
to 01S28W. The ITCZ continues from 01S28W to 02S40W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02S to 05N east of 17W,
and from 06S to 03N between 23W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted north of 27.5N
between 85.5W and 89W. Otherwise, a surface ridging extends over
the eastern Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds W
of 88W and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters
along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light and variable winds
prevail along with seas 1 to 3 ft.


For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in a cluster of severe thunderstorms currently located over
SE Louisiana and regional waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft
prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough,
currently located between Cuba and the Bahamas lifts NE this
weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will
support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean
Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the
Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at
night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate
to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night
through mid-week as high pressure builds again N of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from a
1011 mb low pressure located near 24N71W westward to the Straits
of Florida. These features are supporting scattered to isolated
moderate convection in the vicinity of the low. Fresh to locally
strong winds in connection to the areas of convection associated
with the low are likely. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a pair of 1020 mb
highs W of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds
and rough seas are ongoing over the north-central Atlantic in
connection with an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands
with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in
the deep tropics all the way to the Lesser Antilles offshores.
Seas are moderate across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
and low are forecast to move eastward this weekend before
dissipating on Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring
moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE
offshore waters through tonight. Another cold front is forecast to
enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near
Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N58W to the NW
Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating.

$$
KRV

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277
AXNT20 KNHC 251648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1647 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends SW
to 01S28W. The ITCZ continues from 01S28W to 02S40W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02S to 05N east of 17W,
and from 06S to 03N between 23W and 43W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted north of 27.5N
between 85.5W and 89W. Otherwise, a surface ridging extends over
the eastern Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds W
of 88W and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters
along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light and variable winds
prevail along with seas 1 to 3 ft.


For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in a cluster of severe thunderstorms currently located over
SE Louisiana and regional waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft
prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will
continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough,
currently located between Cuba and the Bahamas lifts NE this
weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will
support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean
Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the
Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at
night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate
to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night
through mid-week as high pressure builds again N of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from a
1011 mb low pressure located near 24N71W westward to the Straits
of Florida. These features are supporting scattered to isolated
moderate convection in the vicinity of the low. Fresh to locally
strong winds in connection to the areas of convection associated
with the low are likely. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a pair of 1020 mb
highs W of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds
and rough seas are ongoing over the north-central Atlantic in
connection with an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands
with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in
the deep tropics all the way to the Lesser Antilles offshores.
Seas are moderate across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
and low are forecast to move eastward this weekend before
dissipating on Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring
moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE
offshore waters through tonight. Another cold front is forecast to
enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near
Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N58W to the NW
Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating.

$$
KRV

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334
AXNT20 KNHC 252017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW
to 01S31W. The ITCZ continues from 01S31W to 01S41W. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south 0f
04N between Africa and Brazil.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted on satellite
imagery in the northeast Gulf north of 26N and east of 87W
associated with an analyzed outflow boundary. A weak 1004 mb low
pressure area is analyzed along a surface trough over the waters
offshore Veracruz with little impacts other than localized wind
shifts. Otherwise, weak surface ridging extends over the eastern
Gulf with a 1013 high pressure center near 28N84W. Light to gentle
SE-S winds and 1-2 ft seas are east of 89W, with gentle to
moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas west of 89W.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in a cluster of strong thunderstorms currently affecting
the waters between the western Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the eastern Gulf of Honduras, locally fresh
there per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas of 1-3 ft are
between 70W and 85W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher near
Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a surface trough is located north of the area
roughly along 23W between Cuba and the Bahamas. This weather
pattern will continue to support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the
entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are expected mainly at night. Otherwise, winds
are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as high pressure
builds again N of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends
from 24N65W westward to the Straits of Florida. This features are
supporting nearby scattered to isolated moderate convection.
Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of
convection are possible. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of broad ridging. A cold front is just north
of 31N to the southeast of Bermuda with associated fresh to strong
SW-W winds across our waters north of 29N between 52W and 62W.
Large associated seas are well ahead of the front, with 7-10 ft
likely north of 27N between roughly 43W and 63W. Fresh to locally
strong northerly winds are offshore northern Morocco north of 29N,
as well as from 20N to 24N due to locally tight pressure
gradients. Elevated seas of 6-8 ft are in these areas. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters,
locally fresh south of 20N. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 80W, and
mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swells across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough in the SW N
Atlantic will remain in place through Sun and gradually dissipate
by Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring moderate to
fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters
through Sun. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters
off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near Bermuda to South
Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue
night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front N of 27N.

$$
Lewitsky

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405
AXNT20 KNHC 252018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW
to 01S31W. The ITCZ continues from 01S31W to 01S41W. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south 0f
04N between Africa and Brazil.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted on satellite
imagery in the northeast Gulf north of 26N and east of 87W
associated with an analyzed outflow boundary. A weak 1004 mb low
pressure area is analyzed along a surface trough over the waters
offshore Veracruz with little impacts other than localized wind
shifts. Otherwise, weak surface ridging extends over the eastern
Gulf with a 1013 high pressure center near 28N84W. Light to gentle
SE-S winds and 1-2 ft seas are east of 89W, with gentle to
moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas west of 89W.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in a cluster of strong thunderstorms currently affecting
the waters between the western Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the eastern Gulf of Honduras, locally fresh
there per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas of 1-3 ft are
between 70W and 85W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher near
Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a surface trough is located north of the area
roughly along 23W between Cuba and the Bahamas. This weather
pattern will continue to support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the
entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are expected mainly at night. Otherwise, winds
are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as high pressure
builds again N of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends
from 24N65W westward to the Straits of Florida. This features are
supporting nearby scattered to isolated moderate convection.
Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of
convection are possible. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of broad ridging. A cold front is just north
of 31N to the southeast of Bermuda with associated fresh to strong
SW-W winds across our waters north of 29N between 52W and 62W.
Large associated seas are well ahead of the front, with 7-10 ft
likely north of 27N between roughly 43W and 63W. Fresh to locally
strong northerly winds are offshore northern Morocco north of 29N,
as well as from 20N to 24N due to locally tight pressure
gradients. Elevated seas of 6-8 ft are in these areas. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters,
locally fresh south of 20N. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 80W, and
mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swells across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough in the SW N
Atlantic will remain in place through Sun and gradually dissipate
by Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring moderate to
fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters
through Sun. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters
off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near Bermuda to South
Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue
night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front N of 27N.

$$
Lewitsky

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447
AXNT20 KNHC 260503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends SW
to 01S30W. The ITCZ continues from 01S30W to 01S46W. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south of
05N between Africa and Brazil.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf. Fresh E winds
prevail off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
central portions of the Gulf, with gentle to moderate or weaker
winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through Thu. In addition, a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds
over the SE basin and in the eastern Gulf of Honduras. Slight
seas prevail across the basin. Scattered showers are occurring
over portions of the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, a surface trough is located north of the area
extending from 22N58W to 21N63W to just NE of the Dominican
Republic near 20N69W. This feature along with a front moving
across the NW Atlantic will continue to allow a weaker than usual
pressure gradient across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
into Mon, thus resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras where
moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse due to nearly
stationary high pressure over the E Gulf of America. Winds are
forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high pressure builds
again N of the area in the wake of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends
from 31N49W to 21N55W and then westward along the northern shore
of Hispaniola and across Cuba. This feature is supporting
scattered to isolated moderate convection. Fresh to locally
strong winds in connection to the areas of convection are
possible. Fresh winds and 8-10 ft seas are also seen on either
side of the trough N of 28N between 40-60W. Fresh to strong N
winds and locally rough seas are also seen E of 20W between 15N
and 25N. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing moderate to
locally fresh or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from
22N58W to 21N63W to just NE of the Dominican Republic near 20N69W.
This feature will remain in place through Sun and gradually
dissipate by Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will
continue to support moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas
to 9 ft over the NE offshore waters through Sun. Another cold
front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night,
extend from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from
31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are expected in the
wake of the front N of 27N.

$$
Adams

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448
AXNT20 KNHC 260503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends SW
to 01S30W. The ITCZ continues from 01S30W to 01S46W. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south of
05N between Africa and Brazil.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf. Fresh E winds
prevail off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
central portions of the Gulf, with gentle to moderate or weaker
winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through Thu. In addition, a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle to moderate E
to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds
over the SE basin and in the eastern Gulf of Honduras. Slight
seas prevail across the basin. Scattered showers are occurring
over portions of the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, a surface trough is located north of the area
extending from 22N58W to 21N63W to just NE of the Dominican
Republic near 20N69W. This feature along with a front moving
across the NW Atlantic will continue to allow a weaker than usual
pressure gradient across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
into Mon, thus resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras where
moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse due to nearly
stationary high pressure over the E Gulf of America. Winds are
forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high pressure builds
again N of the area in the wake of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends
from 31N49W to 21N55W and then westward along the northern shore
of Hispaniola and across Cuba. This feature is supporting
scattered to isolated moderate convection. Fresh to locally
strong winds in connection to the areas of convection are
possible. Fresh winds and 8-10 ft seas are also seen on either
side of the trough N of 28N between 40-60W. Fresh to strong N
winds and locally rough seas are also seen E of 20W between 15N
and 25N. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing moderate to
locally fresh or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from
22N58W to 21N63W to just NE of the Dominican Republic near 20N69W.
This feature will remain in place through Sun and gradually
dissipate by Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will
continue to support moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas
to 9 ft over the NE offshore waters through Sun. Another cold
front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night,
extend from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from
31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are expected in the
wake of the front N of 27N.

$$
Adams

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482
AXNT20 KNHC 261045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and extends SW
to 02N17W to 00N30W. The ITCZ continues from 00N30W to 00N46W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 07S to 05N between 09W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf while low
pressure dominates the western half of the basin. This is allowing
the continuation of gentle to moderate SE winds W of 90W and off
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide.

Shallow low-level moisture interacting with persistent SE flow
is supporting areas of dense fog across the NW Gulf. The
southeasterly winds are advecting warm, moist air over
relatively cooler shelf waters, promoting low-level saturation
within a shallow boundary layer. This process is further
enhanced by a stable near-surface layer limiting vertical
mixing, allowing fog to become dense and widespread at times.
Recent satellite imagery, including GOES-19 Night Fog
Enhancement, highlights expanding low cloud and fog coverage
across the region. In addition, both IFR and LIFR fog
probability products indicate a high likelihood of reduced
visibilities over the NW Gulf, supporting ongoing observations
of dense marine fog.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz, will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Thu.
In addition, a trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the
Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large surface trough across the Greater Antilles northern
adjacent waters along with a front moving across the NW Atlantic
is allowing for a weak pressure gradient across much of the
Caribbean, which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
over the SE basin and light to gentle elsewhere, but the NW
Caribbean W of 84W where moderate to locally fresh winds are
ongoing due to surface high pressure over the E Gulf of America.
Slight seas prevail across the basin, except offshore Belize, the
Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras where seas are moderate
to 4 ft. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers are occurring
over the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters.

For the forecast, a surface trough located north of the area
extending from 24N58W to 21N65W to the Great Bahama Bank near
21N74W along with a front moving across the NW Atlantic will
continue to allow a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, thus resulting in
mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas,
except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh E to SE
winds will pulse due to nearly stationary high pressure over the E
Gulf of America. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu
as high pressure builds again N of the area in the wake of the
front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 30N55W to 31N63W, which is
supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds N of 29N between 55W
and 65W as well as triggering some showers over the central
subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough extending from
24N58W to 21N65W to the Great Bahama Bank near 21N74W is
supporting similar shower activity S of 27N between 55W and the
southern Bahamas. Another surface trough is over the E subtropical
Atlantic, extending from 31N30W to 25N41W, which is supporting
moderate to fresh winds ahead and in its wake along with rough
seas to 9 ft. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere, supporting
moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough N of the Greater
Antilles will remain in place through today and gradually dissipate
by Mon. The cold front will continue to support moderate to fresh
SW to W winds and rough seas to 9 ft over the NE offshore waters
through today. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters
off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to South
Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue
night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of the front.

$$
Ramos

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483
AXNT20 KNHC 261045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and extends SW
to 02N17W to 00N30W. The ITCZ continues from 00N30W to 00N46W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 07S to 05N between 09W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf while low
pressure dominates the western half of the basin. This is allowing
the continuation of gentle to moderate SE winds W of 90W and off
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide.

Shallow low-level moisture interacting with persistent SE flow
is supporting areas of dense fog across the NW Gulf. The
southeasterly winds are advecting warm, moist air over
relatively cooler shelf waters, promoting low-level saturation
within a shallow boundary layer. This process is further
enhanced by a stable near-surface layer limiting vertical
mixing, allowing fog to become dense and widespread at times.
Recent satellite imagery, including GOES-19 Night Fog
Enhancement, highlights expanding low cloud and fog coverage
across the region. In addition, both IFR and LIFR fog
probability products indicate a high likelihood of reduced
visibilities over the NW Gulf, supporting ongoing observations
of dense marine fog.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz, will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Thu.
In addition, a trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the
Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large surface trough across the Greater Antilles northern
adjacent waters along with a front moving across the NW Atlantic
is allowing for a weak pressure gradient across much of the
Caribbean, which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
over the SE basin and light to gentle elsewhere, but the NW
Caribbean W of 84W where moderate to locally fresh winds are
ongoing due to surface high pressure over the E Gulf of America.
Slight seas prevail across the basin, except offshore Belize, the
Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras where seas are moderate
to 4 ft. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers are occurring
over the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters.

For the forecast, a surface trough located north of the area
extending from 24N58W to 21N65W to the Great Bahama Bank near
21N74W along with a front moving across the NW Atlantic will
continue to allow a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, thus resulting in
mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas,
except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh E to SE
winds will pulse due to nearly stationary high pressure over the E
Gulf of America. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu
as high pressure builds again N of the area in the wake of the
front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 30N55W to 31N63W, which is
supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds N of 29N between 55W
and 65W as well as triggering some showers over the central
subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough extending from
24N58W to 21N65W to the Great Bahama Bank near 21N74W is
supporting similar shower activity S of 27N between 55W and the
southern Bahamas. Another surface trough is over the E subtropical
Atlantic, extending from 31N30W to 25N41W, which is supporting
moderate to fresh winds ahead and in its wake along with rough
seas to 9 ft. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere, supporting
moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough N of the Greater
Antilles will remain in place through today and gradually dissipate
by Mon. The cold front will continue to support moderate to fresh
SW to W winds and rough seas to 9 ft over the NE offshore waters
through today. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters
off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to South
Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue
night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of the front.

$$
Ramos

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055
AXNT20 KNHC 261656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and extends S then SW to 03N22W to
02N40W. The ITCZ continues from 02N41W to 02.5N47W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted S of 04N between 22W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic into the eastern
Gulf this morning, inhibited by two weak surface troughs on either
side of N Florida. A weak 1013 mb high is centered south of the
western Florida Panhandle. Broad low pressure dominates the
western half of the basin. This is allowing the continuation of
gentle to moderate SE winds W of 90W and off the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Slight seas prevail basin-wide, with peak seas to 5 ft well
offshore the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. S cluster of
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is moving
southeastward across SE Louisiana, SE Mississippi, and SW Alabama,
and into the local coastal waters. Dense morning fog restricting
visibilities across large portions of the north-central and
northwestern Gulf waters has burned off and thinned out this
morning, but with still a few offshore oil platforms reporting
visibility's below 3 nm at present.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz, will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Thu.
In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds
off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.
Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf waters
Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of an old frontal boundary linger this morning across
the Atlantic waters N of the Greater Antilles, in the form of a
trough meandering from 22N59W to eastern Cuba. This feature
combined with a front moving into the NW Atlantic waters is
producing a weak pressure gradient across much of the Caribbean,
which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the SE
basin and light to gentle elsewhere, but the NW Caribbean W of 84W
and across the Gulf of Honduras, where moderate to locally fresh
winds are ongoing due to surface high pressure over the E Gulf of
America. Slight seas prevail across the basin, except offshore
Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras where seas
are moderate to 4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are
spreading across the Lesser Antilles and into the adjacent
Caribbean waters, producing a zone of convergence and scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from near Guadeloupe S-SW and
inland across central Venezuela near 66W.

For the forecast, the surface trough meandering across the
Atlantic water north of the Greater Antilles will contribute to
a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Except in the Gulf of
Honduras where moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are
expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds
over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high
pressure builds again N of the area, behind a cold front moving
across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N46W to 28N52W then becomes
stationary to 31N65W, while a 1020 mb high center is north of the
front near 33N60W. Weak high pressure also prevail E of the front
between 20W and 40W, from 30N to 40N. The associated pressure
gradient between the front and the ridge to the E is supporting
moderate to fresh SW winds N of 26N between 40W and 46W, with seas
of 5 to 7 ft, as well as triggering some showers over those
central subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is ahead of
the front from 22N52W to 29N45W. Moderate westerly winds prevail
between the front and this trough, to the N of 28N, where seas are
6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Another surface trough, the remnants of an
old front lingering for days across the area, meanders from
22N59W to eastern Cuba, and is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 21N to 26N between 55W and the southern Bahamas.
Surface ridging dominates elsewhere E of the front, as described
above, supporting moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the old frontal trough lingering N
of the Greater Antilles will remain in place through today and
gradually dissipate by Mon. A frontal boundary over the NE waters
will continue to support moderate northerly winds and moderate to
rough seas through today. Another cold front is forecast to enter
the waters off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to
South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by
Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of
the front through Mon night.

$$
Stripling

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054
AXNT20 KNHC 261656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and extends S then SW to 03N22W to
02N40W. The ITCZ continues from 02N41W to 02.5N47W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted S of 04N between 22W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic into the eastern
Gulf this morning, inhibited by two weak surface troughs on either
side of N Florida. A weak 1013 mb high is centered south of the
western Florida Panhandle. Broad low pressure dominates the
western half of the basin. This is allowing the continuation of
gentle to moderate SE winds W of 90W and off the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Slight seas prevail basin-wide, with peak seas to 5 ft well
offshore the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. S cluster of
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is moving
southeastward across SE Louisiana, SE Mississippi, and SW Alabama,
and into the local coastal waters. Dense morning fog restricting
visibilities across large portions of the north-central and
northwestern Gulf waters has burned off and thinned out this
morning, but with still a few offshore oil platforms reporting
visibility's below 3 nm at present.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz, will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Thu.
In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds
off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.
Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf waters
Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of an old frontal boundary linger this morning across
the Atlantic waters N of the Greater Antilles, in the form of a
trough meandering from 22N59W to eastern Cuba. This feature
combined with a front moving into the NW Atlantic waters is
producing a weak pressure gradient across much of the Caribbean,
which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the SE
basin and light to gentle elsewhere, but the NW Caribbean W of 84W
and across the Gulf of Honduras, where moderate to locally fresh
winds are ongoing due to surface high pressure over the E Gulf of
America. Slight seas prevail across the basin, except offshore
Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras where seas
are moderate to 4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are
spreading across the Lesser Antilles and into the adjacent
Caribbean waters, producing a zone of convergence and scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from near Guadeloupe S-SW and
inland across central Venezuela near 66W.

For the forecast, the surface trough meandering across the
Atlantic water north of the Greater Antilles will contribute to
a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Except in the Gulf of
Honduras where moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are
expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds
over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high
pressure builds again N of the area, behind a cold front moving
across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N46W to 28N52W then becomes
stationary to 31N65W, while a 1020 mb high center is north of the
front near 33N60W. Weak high pressure also prevail E of the front
between 20W and 40W, from 30N to 40N. The associated pressure
gradient between the front and the ridge to the E is supporting
moderate to fresh SW winds N of 26N between 40W and 46W, with seas
of 5 to 7 ft, as well as triggering some showers over those
central subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is ahead of
the front from 22N52W to 29N45W. Moderate westerly winds prevail
between the front and this trough, to the N of 28N, where seas are
6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Another surface trough, the remnants of an
old front lingering for days across the area, meanders from
22N59W to eastern Cuba, and is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 21N to 26N between 55W and the southern Bahamas.
Surface ridging dominates elsewhere E of the front, as described
above, supporting moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the old frontal trough lingering N
of the Greater Antilles will remain in place through today and
gradually dissipate by Mon. A frontal boundary over the NE waters
will continue to support moderate northerly winds and moderate to
rough seas through today. Another cold front is forecast to enter
the waters off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to
South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by
Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of
the front through Mon night.

$$
Stripling

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623
AXNT20 KNHC 262015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and extends S then SW to 03N22W to
02N40W. The ITCZ continues from 02N41W to 02.5N47W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted S of 04N between 22W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A couple of weak troughs are analyzed over the N and NE-Gulf.
Otherwise, broad high pressure prevails. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 2 ft or less are east of 87W and gentle to moderate SE
winds and 2-4 ft seas are west of 87W.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along the coast of Mexico reaching offshore
Veracruz will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas
over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds
with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin
through the middle of the week. In addition, a diurnal trough will
pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during
the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front will
enter the northern Gulf waters Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure pattern exists across the basin, with
light to gentle E-SE winds, except gentle to moderate east of 70W
and also west of 85W. Seas are 2 ft or less between 70W and 85W,
and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher in Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
water north of the Greater Antilles will contribute to a weaker
than usual pressure gradient across the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected.
Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east
and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high pressure
builds again N of the area, behind a cold front moving across the
western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of dissipating frontal boundaries are over the SW N
Atlantic offshore waters. A trough extends from 31N43W to 51N53W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are north of 24N within 240 nm ahead of
the trough. Otherwise, gentle of moderate winds dominate the open
waters. except locally fresh near the coast of Africa north of 14N
and east of 20W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell north of 28N
between 40W and 55W. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 67W, and 4-7 ft
across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, an old frontal trough lingering N
of the Greater Antilles will remain in place through late today
and gradually dissipate by Mon. Winds and seas will continue to
diminish through this evening behind a weakening frontal boundary
located over the NE waters. A cold front is forecast to enter the
waters off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to
South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by
Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of
the front through Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front
will likely move off NE Florida late Thu or Thu night.

$$
Lewitsky

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622
AXNT20 KNHC 262015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and extends S then SW to 03N22W to
02N40W. The ITCZ continues from 02N41W to 02.5N47W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted S of 04N between 22W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A couple of weak troughs are analyzed over the N and NE-Gulf.
Otherwise, broad high pressure prevails. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 2 ft or less are east of 87W and gentle to moderate SE
winds and 2-4 ft seas are west of 87W.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along the coast of Mexico reaching offshore
Veracruz will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas
over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds
with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin
through the middle of the week. In addition, a diurnal trough will
pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during
the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front will
enter the northern Gulf waters Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure pattern exists across the basin, with
light to gentle E-SE winds, except gentle to moderate east of 70W
and also west of 85W. Seas are 2 ft or less between 70W and 85W,
and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher in Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
water north of the Greater Antilles will contribute to a weaker
than usual pressure gradient across the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected.
Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east
and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high pressure
builds again N of the area, behind a cold front moving across the
western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of dissipating frontal boundaries are over the SW N
Atlantic offshore waters. A trough extends from 31N43W to 51N53W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are north of 24N within 240 nm ahead of
the trough. Otherwise, gentle of moderate winds dominate the open
waters. except locally fresh near the coast of Africa north of 14N
and east of 20W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell north of 28N
between 40W and 55W. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 67W, and 4-7 ft
across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, an old frontal trough lingering N
of the Greater Antilles will remain in place through late today
and gradually dissipate by Mon. Winds and seas will continue to
diminish through this evening behind a weakening frontal boundary
located over the NE waters. A cold front is forecast to enter the
waters off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to
South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by
Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of
the front through Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front
will likely move off NE Florida late Thu or Thu night.

$$
Lewitsky

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579
AXNT20 KNHC 270503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to near 03N20W and then to 00S39W. The ITCZ then
continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen S of 09N and E of
20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 05N between 20W
and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog forming in the W Gulf
generally N of 23N and W of 92W, so low visibility may be a
concern in this region. Surface ridging prevails with a weak 1013
mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds
prevail along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and W of 90W, with
gentle to moderate of weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail
basin- wide.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along the coast of Mexico reaching offshore
Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and
moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part
of the basin through the middle of the week. In addition, a
diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of
Venezuela is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across
much of the eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure pattern
exists across the basin, moderate to fresh trades occurring
offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-
wide.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon resulting in mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of
Honduras where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are
expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds
over the eastern and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as
high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a cold
front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front is analyzed from a 1012 mb low near 23N68W to near
23N54W. A frontal remnant trough is then analyzed from that point
to near 31N39W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen along and north of the warm front to about 27N. In the west
Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed along the eastern FL coast.
Scattered moderate convection is developing along this trough as
a frontal boundary lingers to the north. In the central Atlantic,
another frontal remnant trough extends from 31N42W to 28N58W. Seas
of 7-9 ft follow this feature. Away from these features, surface
ridging prevails with moderate to fresh trades across much of the
Atlantic S of 20N and E of 60W, as well as N of 20N and E of 30W.
Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4-7 ft also
prevail across much of the basin away from the enhanced seas
behind a frontal remnant trough mentioned above, and W of 70W
where slight seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a remnant frontal trough lingering
north of the Greater Antilles will gradually dissipate through
Mon. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N east
of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead of a
cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front over the waters east of northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to move off the northeast Florida late Thu or
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W
and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

$$
Adams

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466
AXNT20 KNHC 270503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to near 03N20W and then to 00S39W. The ITCZ then
continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen S of 09N and E of
20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 05N between 20W
and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog forming in the W Gulf
generally N of 23N and W of 92W, so low visibility may be a
concern in this region. Surface ridging prevails with a weak 1013
mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds
prevail along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and W of 90W, with
gentle to moderate of weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail
basin- wide.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along the coast of Mexico reaching offshore
Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and
moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part
of the basin through the middle of the week. In addition, a
diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of
Venezuela is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across
much of the eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure pattern
exists across the basin, moderate to fresh trades occurring
offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-
wide.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon resulting in mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of
Honduras where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are
expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds
over the eastern and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as
high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a cold
front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front is analyzed from a 1012 mb low near 23N68W to near
23N54W. A frontal remnant trough is then analyzed from that point
to near 31N39W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen along and north of the warm front to about 27N. In the west
Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed along the eastern FL coast.
Scattered moderate convection is developing along this trough as
a frontal boundary lingers to the north. In the central Atlantic,
another frontal remnant trough extends from 31N42W to 28N58W. Seas
of 7-9 ft follow this feature. Away from these features, surface
ridging prevails with moderate to fresh trades across much of the
Atlantic S of 20N and E of 60W, as well as N of 20N and E of 30W.
Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4-7 ft also
prevail across much of the basin away from the enhanced seas
behind a frontal remnant trough mentioned above, and W of 70W
where slight seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a remnant frontal trough lingering
north of the Greater Antilles will gradually dissipate through
Mon. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N east
of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead of a
cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front over the waters east of northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to move off the northeast Florida late Thu or
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W
and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

$$
Adams

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202
AXNT20 KNHC 270947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues southwestward to near 03N20W and to 00S39W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between
16W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm of the trough between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 14W-16W, within 60 nm south
of the trough between 28W-34W and within 60 nm north of the trough
between 31W-35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1015 mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 27N86W
maintains a weak pressure pattern over the eastern and central
Gulf. A trough extends from Tampico, Mexico southeastward along
the coast to Veracruz. The gradient in place is allowing for
moderate to fresh east winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula and
west of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds east of 90W.
Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the basin.

Patches of low stratus-type clouds and fog producing visibility of
3 to 5 nm are seen over the far western Gulf and lifting to the
northwest with the moderate to fresh southeasterly flow over that
is occurring over that part of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the interaction between weak high pressure over
the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends from along the coast
of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh
southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the
Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas
over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere,
a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the
Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking
ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into
Thu and reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of
Venezuela in combination with a broad upper-level trough is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the
eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure across the basin is
keeping moderate to fresh trades offshore NW Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds
elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide per latest altimeter
satellite data passes and recent buoy observations.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea today resulting in mostly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through the week. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu
as high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a
cold front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N37W to 27N42W, where it becomes
a trough to 22N50W and a dissipating warm front to 24N60W and
to 24N65W. A trough extends from 24N65W to eastern Cuba. A trough
is analyzed from near 31N40W to 27N50W and northwestward to
29N60W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long-period northwest swell follow
the trough. Patches of rain along with isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 28N between 49W and 62W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 24N to 29N between
64W and 68W. A cold front moved off the southeastern United States
coast during the overnight hours, and is along a position from
near 31N73W to inland to the extreme northeast part of northern
Florida. A trough is to its south from 30N78W to just east of the
upper Florida Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
from 27N to 30N between 74W and 77W and north of 30N between 70W
and 74W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the front
along with seas of up to around 7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure is
the main feature over the eastern part of the basin as a 1020 mb
high center is analyzed near 30N26W. The related gradient is
keeping moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south
of about 20N and east of 60W, as well as north of 20N and east
of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 26N between 39W and
56W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening remnant frontal trough
lingering north of the Greater Antilles will dissipate this
morning. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N
east of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead
of a cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front extending from 31N76W to northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W
and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

$$
Aguirre

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201
AXNT20 KNHC 270947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues southwestward to near 03N20W and to 00S39W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between
16W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm of the trough between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 14W-16W, within 60 nm south
of the trough between 28W-34W and within 60 nm north of the trough
between 31W-35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1015 mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 27N86W
maintains a weak pressure pattern over the eastern and central
Gulf. A trough extends from Tampico, Mexico southeastward along
the coast to Veracruz. The gradient in place is allowing for
moderate to fresh east winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula and
west of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds east of 90W.
Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the basin.

Patches of low stratus-type clouds and fog producing visibility of
3 to 5 nm are seen over the far western Gulf and lifting to the
northwest with the moderate to fresh southeasterly flow over that
is occurring over that part of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the interaction between weak high pressure over
the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends from along the coast
of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh
southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the
Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas
over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere,
a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the
Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking
ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into
Thu and reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of
Venezuela in combination with a broad upper-level trough is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the
eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure across the basin is
keeping moderate to fresh trades offshore NW Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds
elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide per latest altimeter
satellite data passes and recent buoy observations.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea today resulting in mostly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through the week. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu
as high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a
cold front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N37W to 27N42W, where it becomes
a trough to 22N50W and a dissipating warm front to 24N60W and
to 24N65W. A trough extends from 24N65W to eastern Cuba. A trough
is analyzed from near 31N40W to 27N50W and northwestward to
29N60W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long-period northwest swell follow
the trough. Patches of rain along with isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 28N between 49W and 62W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 24N to 29N between
64W and 68W. A cold front moved off the southeastern United States
coast during the overnight hours, and is along a position from
near 31N73W to inland to the extreme northeast part of northern
Florida. A trough is to its south from 30N78W to just east of the
upper Florida Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen
from 27N to 30N between 74W and 77W and north of 30N between 70W
and 74W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the front
along with seas of up to around 7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure is
the main feature over the eastern part of the basin as a 1020 mb
high center is analyzed near 30N26W. The related gradient is
keeping moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south
of about 20N and east of 60W, as well as north of 20N and east
of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 26N between 39W and
56W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening remnant frontal trough
lingering north of the Greater Antilles will dissipate this
morning. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N
east of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead
of a cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front extending from 31N76W to northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W
and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

$$
Aguirre

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332
AXNT20 KNHC 271001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues southwestward to near 03N20W and to 00S39W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between
16W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm of the trough between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 14W-16W, within 60 nm south
of the trough between 28W-34W and within 60 nm north of the trough
between 31W-35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1015 mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 27N86W
maintains a weak pressure pattern over the eastern and central Gulf
sections. A trough extends from Tampico, Mexico southeastward along
the coast to Veracruz. The gradient in place is allowing for
moderate to fresh east winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula and west
of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds east of 90W. Seas of
3 to 5 ft are across the basin.

Patches of low stratus-type clouds and fog producing visibility of 3
to 5 nm are seen over the far western Gulf, and is lifting to the
northwest with the moderate to fresh southeasterly flow that is
occurring over that section of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the interaction between weak high pressure over
the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast of Mexico
from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere, a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula
during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front
will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South
Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of
Venezuela in combination with a broad upper-level trough is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the
eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure across the basin is
keeping moderate to fresh trades offshore NW Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere.
Slight seas prevail basin-wide per latest altimeter satellite data
passes and recent buoy observations.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea today resulting in mostly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through the week. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu
as high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a
cold front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N37W to 27N42W, where it becomes
a trough to 22N50W and a dissipating warm front to 24N60W and to
24N65W. A trough extends from 24N65W to eastern Cuba. A trough is
also analyzed from near 31N40W to 27N50W and northwestward to
29N60W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long-period northwest swell follow this
trough. Patches of rain along with isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 28N between 49W and 62W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 24N to 29N between 64W
and 68W. A cold front moved off the southeastern United States coast
during the overnight hours, and is along a position from near 31N73W
to inland to the extreme northeast part of northern Florida. A
trough is to its south from 30N78W to just east of the upper Florida
Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 27N to 30N
between 74W and 77W and north of 30N between 70W and 74W. Fresh to
strong northeast winds are behind the front along with seas of up to
around 7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the
eastern part of the basin as a 1020 mb high center is analyzed near
30N26W. The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades
over most of the basin south of about 20N and east of 60W, as well
as north of 20N and east of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to 7
ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6 ft,
except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 26N
between 39W and 56W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening remnant frontal trough
lingering north of the Greater Antilles will dissipate this
morning. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N
east of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead
of a cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front extending from 31N76W to northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W
and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

$$
Aguirre

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324
AXNT20 KNHC 271040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues southwestward to near 03N20W and to 00S39W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between
16W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm of the trough between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 14W-16W, within 60 nm south
of the trough between 28W-34W and within 60 nm north of the trough
between 31W-35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1015 mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 27N86W
maintains a weak pressure pattern over the eastern and central Gulf
sections. A trough extends from Tampico, Mexico southeastward along
the coast to Veracruz. The gradient in place is allowing for
moderate to fresh east winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula and west
of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds east of 90W. Seas of
3 to 5 ft are across the basin.

Patches of low stratus-type clouds and fog producing visibility of 3
to 5 nm are seen over the far western Gulf, and is lifting to the
northwest with the moderate to fresh southeasterly flow that is
occurring over that section of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the interaction between weak high pressure over
the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast of Mexico
from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere, a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula
during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front
will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South
Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of
Venezuela in combination with a broad upper-level trough is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the
eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure across the basin is
keeping moderate to fresh trades offshore NW Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere.
Slight seas prevail basin-wide per latest altimeter satellite data
passes and recent buoy observations.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea today resulting in mostly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through the week. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu
as high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a
cold front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N37W to 27N42W, where it becomes
a trough to 22N50W and a dissipating warm front to 24N60W and to
24N65W. A trough extends from 24N65W to eastern Cuba. A trough is
also analyzed from near 31N40W to 27N50W and northwestward to
29N60W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long-period northwest swell follow this
trough. Patches of rain along with isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 28N between 49W and 62W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 24N to 29N between 64W
and 68W. A cold front moved off the southeastern United States coast
during the overnight hours, and is along a position from near 31N73W
to inland the extreme northeast part of northern Florida. A trough
is to its south from 30N78W to just east of the upper Florida Keys.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 27N to 30N between
74W and 77W and north of 30N between 70W and 74W. Fresh to strong
northeast winds are behind the front along with seas of up to around
7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin as a 1020 mb high center is analyzed near 30N26W.
The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades over most
of the basin south of about 20N and east of 60W, as well as north of
20N and east of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 26N between 39W
and 56W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening remnant frontal trough
lingering north of the Greater Antilles will dissipate this
morning. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N
east of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead
of a cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front extending from 31N76W to northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W
and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

$$
Aguirre

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076
AXNT20 KNHC 271041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues southwestward to near 03N20W and to 00S39W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between
16W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm of the trough between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 09N between 14W-16W, within 60 nm south
of the trough between 28W-34W and within 60 nm north of the trough
between 31W-35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1015 mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 27N86W
maintains a weak pressure pattern over the eastern and central Gulf
sections. A trough extends from Tampico, Mexico southeastward along
the coast to Veracruz. The gradient in place is allowing for
moderate to fresh east winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula and west
of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds east of 90W. Seas of
3 to 5 ft are across the basin.

Patches of low stratus-type clouds and fog producing visibility of 3
to 5 nm are seen over the far western Gulf. They are lifting to the
northwest with the moderate to fresh southeasterly flow that is
occurring over that section of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the interaction between weak high pressure over
the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast of Mexico
from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh southeast
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere, a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula
during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front
will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South
Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of
Venezuela in combination with a broad upper-level trough is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the
eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure across the basin is
keeping moderate to fresh trades offshore NW Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere.
Slight seas prevail basin-wide per latest altimeter satellite data
passes and recent buoy observations.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea today resulting in mostly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through the week. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu
as high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a
cold front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N37W to 27N42W, where it becomes
a trough to 22N50W and a dissipating warm front to 24N60W and to
24N65W. A trough extends from 24N65W to eastern Cuba. A trough is
also analyzed from near 31N40W to 27N50W and northwestward to
29N60W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long-period northwest swell follow this
trough. Patches of rain along with isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 28N between 49W and 62W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 24N to 29N between 64W
and 68W. A cold front moved off the southeastern United States coast
during the overnight hours, and is along a position from near 31N73W
to inland the extreme northeast part of northern Florida. A trough
is to its south from 30N78W to just east of the upper Florida Keys.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 27N to 30N between
74W and 77W and north of 30N between 70W and 74W. Fresh to strong
northeast winds are behind the front along with seas of up to around
7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin as a 1020 mb high center is analyzed near 30N26W.
The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades over most
of the basin south of about 20N and east of 60W, as well as north of
20N and east of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 26N between 39W
and 56W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening remnant frontal trough
lingering north of the Greater Antilles will dissipate this
morning. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N
east of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead
of a cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front extending from 31N76W to northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W
and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

$$
Aguirre

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984
AXNT20 KNHC 271641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to near
00N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted withing 240
nm on either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin. With this,
moderate to fresh east winds prevail west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and west of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
east of 90W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the western half of the
basin, and 1 to 3 ft across the eastern half.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will
continue to produce moderate to fresh southeast winds and
moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part
of the basin through early Wed. A diurnal trough will pulse
moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the
evenings through Fri night. A cold front will enter the northern
Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South Florida to central
Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough analyzed from eastern Puerto Rico to 13N66W in
combination with a broad upper-level trough is supporting
scattered showers across most of the eastern Caribbean. A weak
pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades
offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide
per latest altimeter satellite data passes and recent buoy
observations.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient through today. The tighter
pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over
the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching
locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to
fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri,
increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low pres is analyzed near 30N36W, with cold front from the low
to 24N43W. A surface trough continues from that point to 23N72W.
Scattered showers are noted along these features. Seas to 8 ft in
long-period northwest swell follow the front/trough. To the west,
a cold front moved off the southeastern United States coast
during the overnight hours, analyzed in our area from 31N75W to
29N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 26N to
31N between 72W and 79W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
behind the front along with seas of up to around 8 ft. Otherwise,
high pressure is the main feature over the eastern part of the
basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades
over most of the basin south of about 20N and east of 60W, as well
as north of 20N and east of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to
7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6
ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north
of 26N between 39W and 56W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through tonight. Another cold front is expected
to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or Thu night, and
weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W and stationary to
South Florida late Fri.

$$
ERA

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983
AXNT20 KNHC 271641
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to near
00N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted withing 240
nm on either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin. With this,
moderate to fresh east winds prevail west of the Yucatan
Peninsula and west of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds
east of 90W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the western half of the
basin, and 1 to 3 ft across the eastern half.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will
continue to produce moderate to fresh southeast winds and
moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part
of the basin through early Wed. A diurnal trough will pulse
moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the
evenings through Fri night. A cold front will enter the northern
Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South Florida to central
Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough analyzed from eastern Puerto Rico to 13N66W in
combination with a broad upper-level trough is supporting
scattered showers across most of the eastern Caribbean. A weak
pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades
offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide
per latest altimeter satellite data passes and recent buoy
observations.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient through today. The tighter
pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over
the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching
locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to
fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri,
increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low pres is analyzed near 30N36W, with cold front from the low
to 24N43W. A surface trough continues from that point to 23N72W.
Scattered showers are noted along these features. Seas to 8 ft in
long-period northwest swell follow the front/trough. To the west,
a cold front moved off the southeastern United States coast
during the overnight hours, analyzed in our area from 31N75W to
29N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 26N to
31N between 72W and 79W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
behind the front along with seas of up to around 8 ft. Otherwise,
high pressure is the main feature over the eastern part of the
basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades
over most of the basin south of about 20N and east of 60W, as well
as north of 20N and east of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to
7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6
ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north
of 26N between 39W and 56W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through tonight. Another cold front is expected
to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or Thu night, and
weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W and stationary to
South Florida late Fri.

$$
ERA

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146
AXNT20 KNHC 272040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to near
00N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil
near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted withing 240 nm
on either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin.
With this, moderate to fresh E winds prevail west of 88W along
with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle to moderate mainly E to SE winds and
1-2 ft seas east of 88W. A portion of a stationary front pokes in
across the NE Gulf coastal waters with little impacts.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. A
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and
reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers across
most of the central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure across
the basin is keeping moderate to locally fresh trades south of 15N
and east of 76W, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are
mainly light to gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight
seas prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching locally strong at
times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and
moderate seas are expected through Fri, increasing to fresh to
strong speeds through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low pres is analyzed near 30N34W, with cold front from
the low to 24N45W. A surface trough continues from that point to
25N67W. Scattered showers are noted along these features. Seas to
8 ft in long-period northwest swell follow the front/trough. To
the west, a cold front moved off the southeastern United States
and is analyzed in our area from 31N72W to near Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of
the front. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the front
along with seas of 7-10 ft.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to
fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N, with
similar winds north of 27N between 55W and 65W ahead of the
western front. Seas with these winds are mainly 5-7 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from
31N72W to central Florida will reach from near 31N59W to 25N64W
and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east
of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and
moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the wake of
the front tonight. Another cold front is expected to move offshore
northeast Florida late Thu or Thu night, and weaken as it reaches
from near Bermuda to 28N72W and stationary to South Florida late
Fri.

$$
Lewitsky

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145
AXNT20 KNHC 272040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to near
00N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil
near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted withing 240 nm
on either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin.
With this, moderate to fresh E winds prevail west of 88W along
with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle to moderate mainly E to SE winds and
1-2 ft seas east of 88W. A portion of a stationary front pokes in
across the NE Gulf coastal waters with little impacts.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. A
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and
reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers across
most of the central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure across
the basin is keeping moderate to locally fresh trades south of 15N
and east of 76W, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are
mainly light to gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight
seas prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching locally strong at
times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and
moderate seas are expected through Fri, increasing to fresh to
strong speeds through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb low pres is analyzed near 30N34W, with cold front from
the low to 24N45W. A surface trough continues from that point to
25N67W. Scattered showers are noted along these features. Seas to
8 ft in long-period northwest swell follow the front/trough. To
the west, a cold front moved off the southeastern United States
and is analyzed in our area from 31N72W to near Cape Canaveral,
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of
the front. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the front
along with seas of 7-10 ft.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to
fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N, with
similar winds north of 27N between 55W and 65W ahead of the
western front. Seas with these winds are mainly 5-7 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from
31N72W to central Florida will reach from near 31N59W to 25N64W
and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east
of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and
moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the wake of
the front tonight. Another cold front is expected to move offshore
northeast Florida late Thu or Thu night, and weaken as it reaches
from near Bermuda to 28N72W and stationary to South Florida late
Fri.

$$
Lewitsky

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597
AXNT20 KNHC 280505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to
near 01S37W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 03S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 250 nm on either side of these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog forming along the
coasts of NE Mexico, TX, and SW LA. Visibility may be reduced in
these areas. A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across
the basin. With this, moderate to fresh E winds prevail west of
87W along with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle to moderate mainly E to SE
winds and 1-3 ft seas east of 88W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. A
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and
reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers and
isolated moderate convection across the central and eastern
Caribbean. A weak pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to
fresh trades south of 15N and east of 75W, as well as in the Gulf
of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the
remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W,
and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching locally strong at
times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and
moderate seas are expected through Fri, increasing to fresh to
strong speeds through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N68W westward and southwestward
to near Cape Canaveral. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N65W
to near 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is developing along
and about 100 nm ahead of the trough. Scatterometer data confirmed
fresh N to NE winds behind the front along with seas building to
6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also seen in scatterometer
data N of 26N between the pre-frontal trough and 55W. Another
cold front is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 31N32W to
23N45W, with a frontal remnant trough extending from 23N45W to
near 27N62W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing near the
west end of the pre- frontal trough.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to
fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N, with
gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas across much of
the Atlantic away from any frontal boundaries are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from
31N68W to central Florida will reach from near 31N59W to 25N64W
and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east
of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and
moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of the
front tonight. Another cold front is expected to move offshore
northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the
northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon, moving E of
55W on Sat.

$$
Adams

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596
AXNT20 KNHC 280505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to
near 01S37W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 03S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 250 nm on either side of these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog forming along the
coasts of NE Mexico, TX, and SW LA. Visibility may be reduced in
these areas. A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across
the basin. With this, moderate to fresh E winds prevail west of
87W along with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle to moderate mainly E to SE
winds and 1-3 ft seas east of 88W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. A
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and
reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers and
isolated moderate convection across the central and eastern
Caribbean. A weak pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to
fresh trades south of 15N and east of 75W, as well as in the Gulf
of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the
remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W,
and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching locally strong at
times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and
moderate seas are expected through Fri, increasing to fresh to
strong speeds through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N68W westward and southwestward
to near Cape Canaveral. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N65W
to near 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is developing along
and about 100 nm ahead of the trough. Scatterometer data confirmed
fresh N to NE winds behind the front along with seas building to
6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also seen in scatterometer
data N of 26N between the pre-frontal trough and 55W. Another
cold front is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 31N32W to
23N45W, with a frontal remnant trough extending from 23N45W to
near 27N62W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing near the
west end of the pre- frontal trough.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to
fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N, with
gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas across much of
the Atlantic away from any frontal boundaries are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from
31N68W to central Florida will reach from near 31N59W to 25N64W
and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east
of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and
moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of the
front tonight. Another cold front is expected to move offshore
northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the
northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon, moving E of
55W on Sat.

$$
Adams

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496
AXNT20 KNHC 281033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and
continues south-southwestward to 01N20W and westward to 01S30W
and to 01S37W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of
Brazil near 02S44W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 02S to 04N between 20W-27W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-34W and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin
while a trough is near the coast of Mexico from near Tampico to
Veracruz. The pressure gradient between these two features is
allowing for moderate to fresh east winds west of 87W along with 3
to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are east of 87W along with
seas of 1 to 3 ft.

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and patches of fog along
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Visibility may be reduced in these areas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds
through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern
portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A rather strong
spring time cold front should emerge off the Texas coast late Fri
night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by
late on Sat. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north
to northeast winds, with near gale winds possibly over the west-
central and SW Gulf sections. Seas are presently forecast to build
to 12 ft with these winds Sat and Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level troughing, as seen in water vapor imagery, is
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure across the basin
is keeping moderate to fresh trades south of about 15N and east of
75W as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to
gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail
between 68W and 85W, and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu, reaching locally strong at times.
In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate
seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong
speeds through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary from near
31N67W to just east of the northern Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 31N64W to 26N78W and to near the coast of the
Dominican Republic at 20N71W. Fresh northeast to east winds are
northwest of the front along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Overnight
scatterometer satellite indicates moderate to fresh southeast to
south winds east of the pre-frontal trough north of 27N and east
near 55W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Numerous
moderate convection is noted east of the frontal boundary and
trough to near 58W and north of 27N. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb
low is near 30N31W, with a cold front extending to 25N35W and to
23N45W, where a trough continues to 24N50W and northwestward to
26N55W and to 27N62W. A ridge axis behind the front extends from a
1024 mb high that is north of the area at 34N54W, southeastward
to near 27N40W. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are west of the
front to near 38W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in
northwest swell.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is generally maintaining
moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about
20N, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas
across much of the Atlantic away from any frontal boundaries are
5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will reach from near 31N58W to 25N63W and weakening to near
24N71W by early this evening, then move E of 55W on Wed. Moderate
to fresh northeast winds along with moderate seas NW of the front
will diminish this morning. A cold front is expected to move
offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across
the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before
passing E of 55W on Sat.

$$
Aguirre

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633
AXNT20 KNHC 281033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and
continues south-southwestward to 01N20W and westward to 01S30W
and to 01S37W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of
Brazil near 02S44W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 02S to 04N between 20W-27W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-34W and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin
while a trough is near the coast of Mexico from near Tampico to
Veracruz. The pressure gradient between these two features is
allowing for moderate to fresh east winds west of 87W along with 3
to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are east of 87W along with
seas of 1 to 3 ft.

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and patches of fog along
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Visibility may be reduced in these areas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds
through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern
portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A rather strong
spring time cold front should emerge off the Texas coast late Fri
night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by
late on Sat. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north
to northeast winds, with near gale winds possibly over the west-
central and SW Gulf sections. Seas are presently forecast to build
to 12 ft with these winds Sat and Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level troughing, as seen in water vapor imagery, is
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure across the basin
is keeping moderate to fresh trades south of about 15N and east of
75W as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to
gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail
between 68W and 85W, and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu, reaching locally strong at times.
In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate
seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong
speeds through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary from near
31N67W to just east of the northern Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 31N64W to 26N78W and to near the coast of the
Dominican Republic at 20N71W. Fresh northeast to east winds are
northwest of the front along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Overnight
scatterometer satellite indicates moderate to fresh southeast to
south winds east of the pre-frontal trough north of 27N and east
near 55W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Numerous
moderate convection is noted east of the frontal boundary and
trough to near 58W and north of 27N. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb
low is near 30N31W, with a cold front extending to 25N35W and to
23N45W, where a trough continues to 24N50W and northwestward to
26N55W and to 27N62W. A ridge axis behind the front extends from a
1024 mb high that is north of the area at 34N54W, southeastward
to near 27N40W. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are west of the
front to near 38W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in
northwest swell.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is generally maintaining
moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about
20N, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas
across much of the Atlantic away from any frontal boundaries are
5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will reach from near 31N58W to 25N63W and weakening to near
24N71W by early this evening, then move E of 55W on Wed. Moderate
to fresh northeast winds along with moderate seas NW of the front
will diminish this morning. A cold front is expected to move
offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across
the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before
passing E of 55W on Sat.

$$
Aguirre

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305
AXNT20 KNHC 281050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and
continues south-southwestward to 01N20W and westward to 01S30W
and to 01S37W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of
Brazil near 02S44W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 02S to 04N between 20W-27W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-34W and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W-28W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin
while a trough is near the coast of Mexico from near Tampico to
Veracruz. The pressure gradient between these two features is
allowing for moderate to fresh east winds west of 87W along with 3
to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are east of 87W along with
seas of 1 to 3 ft.

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and patches of fog along
the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Visibility may be reduced in these areas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds
through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern
portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A rather strong
spring time cold front should emerge off the Texas coast late Fri
night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by
late on Sat. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north
to northeast winds, with near gale winds possibly over the west-
central and SW Gulf sections. Seas are presently forecast to build
to 12 ft with these winds Sat and Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level troughing, as seen in water vapor imagery, is
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure pattern across the
basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades south of about 15N and
east of 75W as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly
light to gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight seas
prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu, reaching locally strong at times.
In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate
seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong
speeds through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary from near
31N67W to just east of the northern Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 31N64W to 26N78W and to near the coast of the
Dominican Republic at 20N71W. Fresh northeast to east winds are
northwest of the front along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Overnight
scatterometer satellite indicates moderate to fresh southeast to
south winds east of the pre-frontal trough north of 27N and east to
near 55W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Numerous moderate
convection is noted east of the frontal boundary and trough to near
58W and north of 27N. Farther east, a weak 1015 mb low is near
30N31W, with a cold front extending to 25N35W and to 23N45W, where a
trough continues to 24N50W and northwestward to 26N55W and to
27N62W. A ridge axis behind the front extends from a 1024 mb high
that is north of the area at 34N54W southeastward to near 27N40W.
Gentle to moderate northwest winds are west of the front to near
38W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is generally maintaining
moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N,
with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas across most
of the Atlantic outside from the frontal boundaries are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
will reach from near 31N58W to 25N63W and weakening to near
24N71W by early this evening, then move E of 55W on Wed. Moderate
to fresh northeast winds along with moderate seas NW of the front
will diminish this morning. A cold front is expected to move
offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across
the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before
passing E of 55W on Sat.

$$
Aguirre

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123
AXNT20 KNHC 281553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin, while a
trough extends across the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient
between these two features is allowing for moderate to fresh east
winds west of 90W along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
winds are east of 90W along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed
morning. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong
winds off the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh
speeds through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the
northern portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A strong
cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then
reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat.
This front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast
winds, with near gale winds possible over the west-central and SW
Gulf sections. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with these
winds Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level troughing, as seen in water vapor imagery, is
supporting scattered showers across the eastern Caribbean. A weak
pressure pattern across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh
trades south of 15N and east of 75W, as well as in the Gulf of
Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the remainder of
the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate
seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, pressure gradient will continue to support
moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central
Caribbean through Thu, reaching locally strong at times. In the
Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas
are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong
speeds through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from 31N64W to 27N78W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 31N59W to 26N65W. Fresh northeast to east
winds are northwest of the front along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Latest scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh southeast
to south winds east of the pre-frontal trough north of 25N and
east to 50W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted east of the frontal boundary and
trough to near 58W and north of 27N. Farther east, a 1015 mb low
is near 30N29W, with a cold front extending from the low to
22N42W, where a trough continues to 24N53W. Surface ridging
prevails elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are west
of the front to near 38W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in
northwest swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from SE of
Bermuda to just east of the northern Bahamas will reach from near
31N58W to 25N63W and weakening to near 24N71W by early this
evening, then move E of 55W on Wed. Another cold front is expected
to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves
across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon
before passing E of 55W on Sat.

$$
ERA

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124
AXNT20 KNHC 281553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin, while a
trough extends across the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient
between these two features is allowing for moderate to fresh east
winds west of 90W along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
winds are east of 90W along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed
morning. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong
winds off the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh
speeds through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the
northern portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A strong
cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then
reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat.
This front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast
winds, with near gale winds possible over the west-central and SW
Gulf sections. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with these
winds Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level troughing, as seen in water vapor imagery, is
supporting scattered showers across the eastern Caribbean. A weak
pressure pattern across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh
trades south of 15N and east of 75W, as well as in the Gulf of
Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the remainder of
the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate
seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, pressure gradient will continue to support
moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central
Caribbean through Thu, reaching locally strong at times. In the
Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas
are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong
speeds through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from 31N64W to 27N78W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 31N59W to 26N65W. Fresh northeast to east
winds are northwest of the front along with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Latest scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh southeast
to south winds east of the pre-frontal trough north of 25N and
east to 50W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted east of the frontal boundary and
trough to near 58W and north of 27N. Farther east, a 1015 mb low
is near 30N29W, with a cold front extending from the low to
22N42W, where a trough continues to 24N53W. Surface ridging
prevails elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are west
of the front to near 38W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in
northwest swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from SE of
Bermuda to just east of the northern Bahamas will reach from near
31N58W to 25N63W and weakening to near 24N71W by early this
evening, then move E of 55W on Wed. Another cold front is expected
to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves
across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon
before passing E of 55W on Sat.

$$
ERA

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743
AXNT20 KNHC 282107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15W and continues south-southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues 01N23W to
00N35W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 90 nm on
either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between 1022 mb high pressure centered near
the Florida Big Bend and a surface trough over the Bay of
Campeche is leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most
of the Gulf, except gentle within 120 nm of Florida. Locally
strong winds have developed near the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the western basin and 2 to 4 ft
in the east.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds
through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern
portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A strong cold front
will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from
northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from
central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with near
gale winds possible over the west- central and SW Gulf sections on
Sat. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with these winds Sat and
Sat night, then slowly subsiding Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with upper-level troughing has diminished
in the eastern basin this afternoon. Moderate to fresh trades
dominate across the eastern, central, and SW basin, with locally
strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Gentle winds prevail in the NW basin, except for pulsing fresh
winds in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean through
Sunday, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night before diminishing Sunday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the NW Bahamas, with a pre-
frontal trough to its east from 31N58W to 25N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted ahead of the trough N of 25N and E to
54W. Fresh S winds are noted in this region, with seas of 6 to 9
ft. Beyond the front, fresh NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate N
of 28N, with gentle to moderate mainly N winds and moderate seas
elsewhere W of the front as high pressure centered over Florida
gradually settles toward the waters.

A weak cold front also is present in the eastern Atlantic from
around 31N28W to 22N38W. Only gentle NW winds are W of this
boundary, with light winds to the E. S of 20N, moderate to locally
fresh trades dominate. Seas over the majority of open Atlantic
waters are moderate, ranging from 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N61W
to just east of the central Bahamas will move E of 55W on Wed.
Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida
on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the
area through Fri afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat. A
third cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida on
Saturday. This front will reach from 31N73W to central Florida on
Sun.

$$
Konarik

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875
AXNT20 KNHC 282107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15W and continues south-southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues 01N23W to
00N35W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 90 nm on
either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The pressure gradient between 1022 mb high pressure centered near
the Florida Big Bend and a surface trough over the Bay of
Campeche is leading to moderate to fresh E to SE winds across most
of the Gulf, except gentle within 120 nm of Florida. Locally
strong winds have developed near the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the western basin and 2 to 4 ft
in the east.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds
through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern
portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A strong cold front
will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from
northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from
central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with near
gale winds possible over the west- central and SW Gulf sections on
Sat. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with these winds Sat and
Sat night, then slowly subsiding Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with upper-level troughing has diminished
in the eastern basin this afternoon. Moderate to fresh trades
dominate across the eastern, central, and SW basin, with locally
strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Gentle winds prevail in the NW basin, except for pulsing fresh
winds in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean through
Sunday, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night before diminishing Sunday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the NW Bahamas, with a pre-
frontal trough to its east from 31N58W to 25N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted ahead of the trough N of 25N and E to
54W. Fresh S winds are noted in this region, with seas of 6 to 9
ft. Beyond the front, fresh NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate N
of 28N, with gentle to moderate mainly N winds and moderate seas
elsewhere W of the front as high pressure centered over Florida
gradually settles toward the waters.

A weak cold front also is present in the eastern Atlantic from
around 31N28W to 22N38W. Only gentle NW winds are W of this
boundary, with light winds to the E. S of 20N, moderate to locally
fresh trades dominate. Seas over the majority of open Atlantic
waters are moderate, ranging from 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N61W
to just east of the central Bahamas will move E of 55W on Wed.
Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida
on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the
area through Fri afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat. A
third cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida on
Saturday. This front will reach from 31N73W to central Florida on
Sun.

$$
Konarik

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636
AXNT20 KNHC 290300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to 02N20W and then to 01S35W. The ITCZ
continues from 01S35W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection
is active from 03N to 06N between 12W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Buoy observations and earlier scatterometer satellite data
confirm moderate to fresh SE winds across the northwest Gulf,
between 1018 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf and 1001
mb low pressure over central Mexico. Seas are 5-7 ft over the
northwest Gulf. Farther south, fresh NE winds are likely off the
northwest Yucatan Peninsula related to the trough that often
develops over Yucatan in the evening. Gentle breezes and 3-5 ft
are noted elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft over the far eastern Gulf.
Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern
Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far
western Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure
over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast
of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will support moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds
through Fri night. A weak cold front will move into the far
northern Gulf Thu and begin to stall Thu night into Fri, perhaps
over waters further south. A strong cold front will emerge off
the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida
to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to
the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh
to strong north to northeast winds, with near gale winds possible
offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build
to around 12 ft, or possibly even higher Sat and Sat night, then
slowly subside on Sun. There is a potential for the near gale
winds to reach gale force. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front. Mariners
should stay up to date with the latest forecast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging north of the area is strong enough to support fresh to
locally strong trade winds off northeast Colombia and northwest
Venezuela, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh NE winds may be active
across the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras currently as
well. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail elsewhere across
the basin, with 3-5 ft seas, except for 1-3 ft seas in the far
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh
trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sunday,
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night before diminishing Sunday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N68W then is stationary to the
NW Bahamas, with a pre- frontal trough to its east from 27N60W to
20N65W. The supporting mid to upper trough has moved well east of
the front, and is maintaining scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 25N to 30N between 52W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NW winds
and 6-8 ft seas in N swell follow the front. Gentle to moderate
breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W. Farther east,
a front reaches from the eastern Azores to 26N30W to 21N38W. A
reinforcing cold front follows, reaching from low pressure over
the western Azores to 31N33W to 30N40W. Moderate NW winds and 5-7
ft seas in NW swell follow these fronts. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh E trade winds and 5-6 ft seas are noted south of 20N, and
gentle breezes with 4-5 ft seas noted north of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N61W to just east of
the central Bahamas will move E of 55W on Wed. Another cold front
is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken
as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri
afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat. A third cold front will
move off the coast of northeast Florida on Saturday. This front
will reach from 31N73W to central Florida on Sun.

$$
Christensen

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637
AXNT20 KNHC 290300
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to 02N20W and then to 01S35W. The ITCZ
continues from 01S35W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection
is active from 03N to 06N between 12W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Buoy observations and earlier scatterometer satellite data
confirm moderate to fresh SE winds across the northwest Gulf,
between 1018 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf and 1001
mb low pressure over central Mexico. Seas are 5-7 ft over the
northwest Gulf. Farther south, fresh NE winds are likely off the
northwest Yucatan Peninsula related to the trough that often
develops over Yucatan in the evening. Gentle breezes and 3-5 ft
are noted elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft over the far eastern Gulf.
Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern
Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far
western Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high pressure
over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast
of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will support moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds
through Fri night. A weak cold front will move into the far
northern Gulf Thu and begin to stall Thu night into Fri, perhaps
over waters further south. A strong cold front will emerge off
the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida
to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to
the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh
to strong north to northeast winds, with near gale winds possible
offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build
to around 12 ft, or possibly even higher Sat and Sat night, then
slowly subside on Sun. There is a potential for the near gale
winds to reach gale force. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front. Mariners
should stay up to date with the latest forecast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging north of the area is strong enough to support fresh to
locally strong trade winds off northeast Colombia and northwest
Venezuela, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh NE winds may be active
across the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras currently as
well. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail elsewhere across
the basin, with 3-5 ft seas, except for 1-3 ft seas in the far
northwest Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh
trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sunday,
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night before diminishing Sunday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N68W then is stationary to the
NW Bahamas, with a pre- frontal trough to its east from 27N60W to
20N65W. The supporting mid to upper trough has moved well east of
the front, and is maintaining scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 25N to 30N between 52W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NW winds
and 6-8 ft seas in N swell follow the front. Gentle to moderate
breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W. Farther east,
a front reaches from the eastern Azores to 26N30W to 21N38W. A
reinforcing cold front follows, reaching from low pressure over
the western Azores to 31N33W to 30N40W. Moderate NW winds and 5-7
ft seas in NW swell follow these fronts. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh E trade winds and 5-6 ft seas are noted south of 20N, and
gentle breezes with 4-5 ft seas noted north of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N61W to just east of
the central Bahamas will move E of 55W on Wed. Another cold front
is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken
as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri
afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat. A third cold front will
move off the coast of northeast Florida on Saturday. This front
will reach from 31N73W to central Florida on Sun.

$$
Christensen

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683
AXNT20 KNHC 291109
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and
continues south-southwestward to 04N20W and then to 01S31W, where
overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates that it
transitions to ITCZ and continues to 03N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm southeast of the trough between
16W-20W, within 180 nm north of the trough between 31W-35W and
within 60 nm south of the trough between 29W-34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure is over the eastern and central
Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and low
pressure in central Mexico is allowing for moderate to fresh
southeast winds over most of the western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
over the NW northwest Gulf per recent satellite altimeter data
passes and buoy observations. Farther south, the diurnal
Yucatan Peninsula trough has pushed into the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where its related gradient is bringing fresh east to
southeast winds to that part of the Bay of Campeche. Light to
gentle Southeast to south winds are elsewhere across the basin
along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, with the exception of lower
seas of 1 to 3 ft over the far eastern Gulf. Areas of smoke due
to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting
visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the
coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the eastern and
central Gulf will generally maintain gentle to moderate southeast
to south winds across the basin, except for light to gentle
variable winds over the NE Gulf through Fri. Moderate seas will be
over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas will be elsewhere
through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and at night through
Fri. A weak cold front will move into the far northern Gulf Thu
and begin to stall Thu night into Fri, perhaps over waters further
south. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas
coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay
of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to the
Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to
strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force
offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build
to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the
gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to
precede the front. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest
forecast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia
and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. An overnight
scatterometer satellite data pass shows fresh northeast winds in
the Windward Passage. Fresh east winds are in the Gulf of
Honduras as noted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data
pass. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere
across the basin along seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for lower seas of
1-3 ft seas over the northwestern Caribbean north of 18N west of
80W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun,
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night and diminishing on Sun. A Gulf of America weakening cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to near 26N69W, where it
transitions to stationary front to the central Bahamas. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed from 26N61W to 22N66W. A broad mid
to upper-level trough has shifted to the east of these features
as seen in water vapor imagery. It is sustaining an area of
moderate rain with embedded numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 27N between 44W and 49W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 24N to 27N between 44W
and 50W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes reveal
moderate to fresh west to northwest winds behind the front to near
68W and north of 29N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 9 in
northwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are noted elsewhere west of 55W. Over the eastern part of the
area, a cold front is analyzed from near 31N27W to 23N35W. Behind
it, another cold front extends from 31N33W to near 29N40W.
Moderate northwest winds are north of 27N between the first front
and 34W. Moderate winds are elsewhere within 120 nm north of the
first front. Seas with these winds are about 5 to 7 ft as noted by
several Sofar Spotter observations. For the remainder of the
basin, the overnight satellite scatterometer data passes reveal
moderate to fresh trades south of 20N between 34W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate north to northeast winds south of 20N
east of 34W, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 20N
east of 46W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in these areas as seen in
overnight altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front that extends from
31N58W to near 26N69W will shift E of 55W late this afternoon.
Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida
on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the
area through Fri afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening.
A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on
Sat, and reach from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early
on Sun and stall into Sun night. Low pressure is expected to ride
up along the front at that time.

$$
Aguirre

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684
AXNT20 KNHC 291109
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and
continues south-southwestward to 04N20W and then to 01S31W, where
overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates that it
transitions to ITCZ and continues to 03N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm southeast of the trough between
16W-20W, within 180 nm north of the trough between 31W-35W and
within 60 nm south of the trough between 29W-34W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure is over the eastern and central
Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and low
pressure in central Mexico is allowing for moderate to fresh
southeast winds over most of the western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
over the NW northwest Gulf per recent satellite altimeter data
passes and buoy observations. Farther south, the diurnal
Yucatan Peninsula trough has pushed into the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where its related gradient is bringing fresh east to
southeast winds to that part of the Bay of Campeche. Light to
gentle Southeast to south winds are elsewhere across the basin
along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, with the exception of lower
seas of 1 to 3 ft over the far eastern Gulf. Areas of smoke due
to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting
visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the
coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the eastern and
central Gulf will generally maintain gentle to moderate southeast
to south winds across the basin, except for light to gentle
variable winds over the NE Gulf through Fri. Moderate seas will be
over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas will be elsewhere
through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and at night through
Fri. A weak cold front will move into the far northern Gulf Thu
and begin to stall Thu night into Fri, perhaps over waters further
south. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas
coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay
of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to the
Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to
strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force
offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build
to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the
gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to
precede the front. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest
forecast.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia
and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. An overnight
scatterometer satellite data pass shows fresh northeast winds in
the Windward Passage. Fresh east winds are in the Gulf of
Honduras as noted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data
pass. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere
across the basin along seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for lower seas of
1-3 ft seas over the northwestern Caribbean north of 18N west of
80W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun,
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night and diminishing on Sun. A Gulf of America weakening cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to near 26N69W, where it
transitions to stationary front to the central Bahamas. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed from 26N61W to 22N66W. A broad mid
to upper-level trough has shifted to the east of these features
as seen in water vapor imagery. It is sustaining an area of
moderate rain with embedded numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 27N between 44W and 49W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 24N to 27N between 44W
and 50W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes reveal
moderate to fresh west to northwest winds behind the front to near
68W and north of 29N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 9 in
northwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are noted elsewhere west of 55W. Over the eastern part of the
area, a cold front is analyzed from near 31N27W to 23N35W. Behind
it, another cold front extends from 31N33W to near 29N40W.
Moderate northwest winds are north of 27N between the first front
and 34W. Moderate winds are elsewhere within 120 nm north of the
first front. Seas with these winds are about 5 to 7 ft as noted by
several Sofar Spotter observations. For the remainder of the
basin, the overnight satellite scatterometer data passes reveal
moderate to fresh trades south of 20N between 34W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate north to northeast winds south of 20N
east of 34W, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 20N
east of 46W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in these areas as seen in
overnight altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front that extends from
31N58W to near 26N69W will shift E of 55W late this afternoon.
Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida
on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the
area through Fri afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening.
A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on
Sat, and reach from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early
on Sun and stall into Sun night. Low pressure is expected to ride
up along the front at that time.

$$
Aguirre

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